Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2/10-2/12 Winter Storm Threat


The Iceman
 Share

Recommended Posts

EPS looks really good. Holds serve with the OP but the high is a little stronger and therefore temps a little cooler. I like where we stand right now but hope we get a little bit of breathing room tonight and DC gets back in the game. The better they do, the better we tend to do in these situations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

EPS looks really good. Holds serve with the OP but the high is a little stronger and therefore temps a little cooler. I like where we stand right now but hope we get a little bit of breathing room tonight and DC gets back in the game. The better they do, the better we tend to do in these situations.

Thought it was weird the NAM slightly backed off the CAD look. Red flag?

3k looks good for Sunday night tho...may end up with more snow out of that tbh.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Newman said:

The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago.

CMC says no break really between systems starts snowing Sunday night and continues thu the evening Monday. Doesnt go above freezing til Tuesday. It and the UKIE look nice. Fits my idea from a couple days ago where wave 1 will be a bigger player then wave 2 on its heels into a thump then mix then rain. Hopefully there are correct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Newman said:

The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago.

How's it looking out our way? I go on TT but finding my way around the site is confusing to me :blink:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

RGEM is 1-3" thru Monday AM for SE PA. Similar setup with not much of a break and snow continuing intermittently all day Monday steadier later in the day.

Monday could be a timing nightmare for schools. Sunday night/Monday morning snows might trigger 2 hour delays, but with the potential for snow to break out again in the afternoon, or maybe not even stop at all, the closing scenario could be on the table. Then I think Tuesday is at the minimum a 2 hour delay for southern areas with closings likely in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Newman said:

The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago.

Faster it gets here was thought to bode better for us before HP pulls away so that's better than nothing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, penndotguy said:

How's it looking out our way? I go on TT but finding my way around the site is confusing to me :blink:

Euro has around an inch for the Sunday night light snows, with light snow picking back up Monday afternoon. Heaviest stuff comes through around 11pm to 5 am Tuesday before going over to some ice and eventually plain rain. Total snow from second wave, not including Sunday night, is around 3-5". Lots of ice on the Euro Tuesday morning.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Newman said:

After a 6 to 8 hour period of decent snows, the Lehigh Valley sees more than 6 hours of icing or sleet on the Euro.

Is that the same for Northern Jersey or less icing because they're coastal? I do a lot of work up by Allentown and Northern Jersey like Perth Amboy, etc.. I'm thinking work will be called off if there's that much icing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Is that the same for Northern Jersey or less icing because they're coastal? I do a lot of work up by Allentown and Northern Jersey like Perth Amboy, etc.. I'm thinking work will be called off if there's that much icing.

About the same with Northern Jersey. Might see the moderate snows enter in a bit later due to the snows coming from the SW, but amounts, icing, and the overall specifics are similar from the Lehigh Valley into Northern Jersey.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest Wxsim with 6z data - not too much wintry once past Tuesday AM... rush not bad at all

Sunday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 slight chance of snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low
 28. Wind south-southwest near calm in the evening, becoming southeast after
 midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 
 Monday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of
 a mix of snow and sleet in the afternoon. High 37. Wind east-northeast around 4
 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground)
 accumulation expected.
 
 Monday night: Dense overcast. Sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of
 freezing rain and sleet likely after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill ranging from
 21 to 27. Wind east-northeast around 8 mph in the evening, becoming 12 mph,
 gusting to 17 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Ice (on ground)
 accumulation about a quarter inch. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to
 0.1 inches.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast. A mix of rain and freezing rain likely in the morning,
 then rain likely in the afternoon. Breezy. High 43. Wind east-northeast around
 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph,
 in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. No ice (on ground) accumulation expected.
 Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS playing catch up. 1" wave 1 then 2-4" wave 2 for extreme SE PA before torchy rain.

Remember that the GFS sucks with thermals, especially in CAD situations. My call right now would be a general 3-5" before icing. I think this is also a situation where there could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere which limits snowfall but raises sleet potential. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...