Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,348
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    diamondtae
    Newest Member
    diamondtae
    Joined
Baroclinic Zone

Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper

Recommended Posts

44 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looking at the Northeast as a whole the Central part of NH sticks out of the WSW area with a watch only.   We will see.

 

You missed our discussion earlier on it... I was very surprised, lol.  I might have had a mini-rant on how you've got a frozen 1"+ QPF event coming and can't decide whether to go with a warning.  If you issue an Advisory it gives the public the wrong idea, as those get issued for 30-minutes of freezing drizzle before rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM still a torch in mid-levels. Nice model battle....I'd lean toward it but not sure I'm buying hook line and sinker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

NAM still a torch in mid-levels. Nice model battle....I'd lean toward it but not sure I'm buying hook line and sinker.

Even warms the surface toward the end

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, weathafella said:

So who do we trust?  

I say respect the tongue. Would not go all in on the Nam, but we know how these elevated warm tongues do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, weathafella said:

So who do we trust?  

I'd lean toward the NAM....I am not quite biting on it full though. There's still some synoptic features that give me a little pause....the warm push could run into some temporary resistance, Omega will play a role too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd lean toward the NAM....I am not quite biting on it full though. There's still some synoptic features that give me a little pause....the warm push could run into some temporary resistance, Omega will play a role too.

70/30 blend with NAM and the other stuff is what I went with.

The paint peeling pinger fest probably good for an inch of accumulation on top of whatever snow falls too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

70/30 blend with NAM and the other stuff is what I went with.

The paint peeling pinger fest probably good for an inch of accumulation on top of whatever snow falls too.

Yeah, the sleet will initially have prob like a 4 to 1 or even 5 to 1 ratio since 900mb is so frigid...like -10C...lot of pixie dust.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM is colder at Logan in the T1 sigma level on the FRH FOUS. Never higher than 0 C  at that level 

probably signals close to warning ice after several inches of sno ORH to ASH ... nasty storm should that pan out   But I have feelin this may be an inch of PLs again for many n of the pike

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The warm tongue just looks more realistic on the NAM to me than the GFS...coming in like an anvil from H7 downward while the GFS pushes the same temp and temp advection through a 150mb layer for 6+ hrs.

orhnamtongue.png

orhgfstongue.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nice fresh supply of cold coming down in lower levels as John alluded to. Good luck scouring that out. 

Dew point down to -1F here. Dropping like a rock attm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gotta love the old school dumbfounded look on this....Scooter and Phil ripping S+ while ART/SYR/ALB are getting scalped....lol

 

 

Feb12_00zRGEM23.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice fresh supply of cold coming down in lower levels as John alluded to. Good luck scouring that out. 

14/-3 here and winds still gusting to 15mph.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CT Rain said:

Dew point down to -1F here. Dropping like a rock attm. 

We just dropped 6F in the dew here in the last 20min. 6F now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Even warms the surface toward the end

Warm tongues all over our Enfield fannies. Bring on Morch!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice fresh supply of cold coming down in lower levels as John alluded to. Good luck scouring that out. 

Yeah honestly .. I don't see that happening.  I mean the warmth can fist all it wants above 900 ... Ptype fine .  But the surface locks at or less than freezing in this

shoukd be a warning for dual/ aggregate impact 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta love the old school dumbfounded look on this....Scooter and Phil ripping S+ while ART/SYR/ALB are getting scalped....lol

 

 

Feb12_00zRGEM23.png

Weymouth snow, Holliston IP? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta love the old school dumbfounded look on this....Scooter and Phil ripping S+ while ART/SYR/ALB are getting scalped....lol

 

 

Feb12_00zRGEM23.png

Has about 5-6" in NE MA changing over to ip somewhere between 00z and 03z. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta love the old school dumbfounded look on this....Scooter and Phil ripping S+ while ART/SYR/ALB are getting scalped....lol

 

 

Feb12_00zRGEM23.png

Don't know exactly how the NAM and RGEM algos print out sleet but based on the soundings I just checked it appears as soon as any layer breaks the 0 c line the algos show sleet. I remember this from years ago.

Principal forecast issues

  • Liquid equivalent to sleet ratio
  • Erosion of a sleet producing melting layer, supporting snow at the expense of sleet
    • If due to melting, evaluate soundings for presence of a near freezing isothermal layer. More likely to occur when the thickness values in the 850/700 mb layer are in the 1550-57 range.
    • If due to cold air advection, note trends in the 850/700 mb partial thickness values. 
    • A max temperature in the melting layer < 1 C supports snow while temperatures > 1 C and < 3 C support a snow/sleet mix to sleet event. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weymouth snow, Holliston IP? 

Lol...pretty close on that. Almost has Mitch pinging while the Cape is still snowing.

 

This is still one of my favorite sfc maps:

 

 

Dec16-sfcMap-7am.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×