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Baroclinic Zone

Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Like i was saying earlier, The map was going to get a cute look to it.

image.thumb.png.61a448d2ef0642aca89d14c3b187ecc6.png

lol - give me a break. Those types of maps drive me nuts because they imply a level of precision that just isn’t there.

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty aggro from him, interesting.

Ya I thought the same thing...think we’re gonna get a good thump with this..looks to snow pretty good for the afternoon inland, then a lot of sleet.  

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4 minutes ago, PWMan said:

lol - give me a break. Those types of maps drive me nuts because they imply a level of precision that just isn’t there.

lol, That wont be the last change either, Looks like a blue can of paint got spilled, Mostly elevation driven i believe but that's getting to fine on detail.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s gonna be a lot of south of 90 folks shocked when the sleet goes to extended zr. Can see the posts already lol

Realistically, how much ZR do you expect at your house?  Make sure you take pics.

I bet you get under 0.1” accretion

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41 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Realistically, how much ZR do you expect at your house?  Make sure you take pics.

I bet you get under 0.1” accretion

Just let him keep fantasizing about the ice penguin magically waddling around his yard. He needs it ever since he stop believing in Santa when he turned 21.

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RPM has been ramping up all day. Earlier it looked like the NAM but now it's 8" north of pike. Even has it tickling BDL. 

Still think that's too optimistic but it's possible the NAM might be a little too pessimistic with 3-4". 

Im not seeing great cross hair structure on the soundings though like 12/16/07...which is what you look for both to maximize rates and also maximize dynamic opposition to the warm layer...tons of well formed dendrites melting into a marginal warm layer latently cools it faster than putrid flakes. Storms like 12/16/07 produced 2-3" per hour rates to help achieve the positive bust. 

So I'll stick to the advisory amounts for now. 

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15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Realistically, how much ZR do you expect at your house?  Make sure you take pics.

I bet you get under 0.1” accretion

No more than .25, but our posters in SW CT but inland are thinking an hour of zrdz lol. They’ll likely have highest amounts 

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s gonna be a lot of south of 90 folks shocked when the sleet goes to extended zr. Can see the posts already lol

Welcome zr to cap the snow..... fuk sleet for plowing purposes 

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s gonna be a lot of south of 90 folks shocked when the sleet goes to extended zr. Can see the posts already lol

Ryan disagrees with you.  And like he pointed out Friday when you said 50’s weren’t happening, Ryan > Kevin when it comes to Meteorology.  

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Man it’s so cold tomorrow evening from 900 and below. So cold that mesos have low level CAPE at Logan. :lol:   I don’t expect it to be super adiabatic, so my guess is the model temps of 32-34 right at the beaches is more like 31-32 for a time. Usually when it’s near saturated lapse rates are less. That means srfc temps need to be cooler. It’s also why I’m not sure I agree with the cstl gradient look unless the Logan observer has Mets shook. 

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Welp ...sufficed it is to say ... the models are either going to do shockingly well in the face of a slab of concrete below 900 mbs ...or, they are going to do typically poorly.

I think the world's on crack if they think an actual high pressure N of Maine yields the BL at Bedford Mass ...like, ever...

straight rain ...that's what I'm seeing on evening news.  

It'll be interesting -

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Welp ...sufficed it is to say ... the models are either going to do shockingly well in the face of a slab of concrete below 900 mbs ...or, they are going to do typically poorly.

I think the world's on crack if they think an actual high pressure N of Maine yields the BL at Bedford Mass ...like, ever...

straight rain ...that's what I'm seeing on evening news.  

It'll be interesting -

BOX has rain in all of SNE except highest terrain of Berks by tomorrow night in their AFD :lol: 

 

e being overcome. As warmer
air expands we`ll change over to rain. The transition line
moves north and west until by early Wednesday morning the all
except for the high terrain of the Berkshires will be purely
rain.

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WRF ARW is likely the best depiction for BL temps imo. It doesn’t get anyone west/north of line from I-395 in CT to I-495 in MA above freezing throughout...

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

I am surprised Gray doesn't have the South part of Grafton County (Plymouth area) NH is a WSW.   The 850 line doesn't even get to us.  I really expect more than 6-8".  Even it is 6-8" and then sleet wouldn't that still verify as a WSW?  Guess it really doesn't matter to the public.

2019-02-11_194228.jpg

Haddad agrees..

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14 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

2019-02-11_194228.jpg

Haddad agrees..

Haddad just has a bigger range. I've been saying 6-10" for days, but if I had a gun to the head to pick a 2" range I'd go with the GYX 6-8".

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ryan disagrees with you.  And like he pointed out Friday when you said 50’s weren’t happening, Ryan > Kevin when it comes to Meteorology.  

:frostymelt:

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3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I look forward to Pickles micro-analysis of the short term mesos tonight to find which one gives us the least desired outcome.

I’ll wait till a.m lol

i like nam mid level profiles in SWFE and nammy is good to go in this event 24 hrs out

 

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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looking at the Northeast as a whole the Central part of NH sticks out of the WSW area with a watch only.   We will see.

Untitled.jpg

That’s strange looking. 

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