Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper

[dryslot]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

So only half washed away?

Maybe not at all washed away as it looks right now, There wasn't a whole lot of qpf on some of these runs at 12z, And some of it looked like it would be frozen too, But this is the wrong thread for that discussion.

[jbenedet]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why was GFS so warm Jan 19 and now so cold (in a Warmer swfe)?

I don’t remember the specifics of Jan 19. But the main issue now appears to be at H7. GFS shows much less ridging at H7 than the NAM. My guess would be that on Jan 19th GFS was too warm for surface temps vs the mesos.

My hunch is GFS is modeling H7 better than the nam 42 hrs out.

[powderfreak]

38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You aint even smelling sleet

To be honest Im not sure.  Don't think it will matter much in the end but RGEM/NAM/WRF family gets it up here.  EURO looked like it might get to MPV.  GFS is oddly cold in mid-levels while torching low levels.

[jbenedet]

Just now, powderfreak said:

To be honest Im not sure.  Don't think it will matter much in the end but RGEM/NAM/WRF family gets it up here.  EURO looked like it might get to MPV.  GFS is oddly cold in mid-levels while torching low levels.

GFS has known warm bias at the surface. At 42 hrs out I’m thinking GFS evolution at mid levels is better than mesos, but mesos better at 850 to BL. Basically how I see it is overlay GFS H7/H5 with mesos 850 - BL temps.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To be honest Im not sure.  Don't think it will matter much in the end but RGEM/NAM/WRF family gets it up here.  EURO looked like it might get to MPV.  GFS is oddly cold in mid-levels while torching low levels.

It'll probably get up to C VT and C/N NH like the last one. They need to scrap the GFS and start from scratch.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

GFS has known warm bias at the surface. At 42 hrs out I’m thinking GFS evolution at mid levels is better than mesos, but mesos better at 850 to BL. Basically how I see it is overlay GFS H7/H5 with mesos 850 - BL temps.

Take tonight's 00z NAM warm tongue to the bank...whatever that is.

[dendrite]

Meanwhile you can see the drier air working SW on vis satellite as the clearing line slowly collapses SW through MA. But we already know the low levels will be cold anyway.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Take tonight's 00z NAM warm tongue to the bank...whatever that is.

Yea pretty soon will want to hone in on the nam’s mid level temps. I think may want to wait a bit later than that (6z tomorrow?) given the complexity of the setup, expecting slightly more corrections into go time than usual....

[8611Blizz]

Boston tv Mets saying we're getting a good thump for several hours.  Then post a map of Boston getting 3". 

1/2" per hour?

[OSUmetstud]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It'll probably get up to C VT and C/N NH like the last one. They need to scrap the GFS and start from scratch.

Agreed. The 750 temps on the gfs are bogus. It cant do warm noses. At least the fv3 gets to about 0 C in c vt. Nam/3km nam/rdps are in good agreement with ip into those areas. 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It'll probably get up to C VT and C/N NH like the last one. They need to scrap the GFS and start from scratch.

He ain't getting pure sleet. Dude will get a foot by the time it winds down. 

[Tiktock]

Some doom and gloom feelings still but I'm liking my spot just over the NH border in the NE.  I will be ecstatic with anything near 6"....hedging my expectations more towards 4" of mixed sleet and crap.  My main desire if there's sleet/slush is that there's at least enough to throw with the blower effectively. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Boston tv Mets saying we're getting a good thump for several hours.  Then post a map of Boston getting 3". 

1/2" per hour?

I've seen maps that have a coastline gradient. I'm not sure why. Low level temps are not going to become an issue at all until well after the midlevels warm up. 

 

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Boston tv Mets saying we're getting a good thump for several hours.  Then post a map of Boston getting 3". 

1/2" per hour?

Several  meaning 3? 1 inch per hour

[OSUmetstud]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To be honest Im not sure.  Don't think it will matter much in the end but RGEM/NAM/WRF family gets it up here.  EURO looked like it might get to MPV.  GFS is oddly cold in mid-levels while torching low levels.

I dont really see ip in stowe. It gets close but doesnt quite get there...even on the most torched nam and rdps in the mid levels. 

[Spanks45]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meanwhile you can see the drier air working SW on vis satellite as the clearing line slowly collapses SW through MA. But we already know the low levels will be cold anyway.

I think thats the most frustrating part...The initial push kept us from a couple inches last night, now today's push of dry air will push south hard enough to keep the nice overrunning snowfall from occurring, like what southern PA and NJ will see. Then the dam will break, flooding our region with warm air aloft like a tsunami. Giving us a couple hours of snow before we taint, going to rain over most of the SNE region... Just a frustrating winter overall, hopefully we make up for it with a nice blizzard for all before it is over.

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He ain't getting pure sleet. Dude will get a foot by the time it winds down. 

When did I say I would get sleet or not a foot?  A period of sleety granular stuff for an hour wouldn't surprise me nor be a big deal.  I have 8-14" for Stowe.

Im trying to figure out what the VT ski areas are going to get...Sugarbush/MRG definitely could mix.  I think the more northerly sleet progs are right.  Probably up to MPV.

[LSC97wxnut]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Several  meaning 3? 1 inch per hour

If those three hours are between 4-7 on a weekday, I may want to emphasize how heavy [thump] the snow could fall?

[qg_omega]

37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To be honest Im not sure.  Don't think it will matter much in the end but RGEM/NAM/WRF family gets it up here.  EURO looked like it might get to MPV.  GFS is oddly cold in mid-levels while torching low levels.

I think sleet gets up to a GFL -> RUT line , similar to Jan storm

[8611Blizz]

Ch4 says sleet to Boston by 7 or 8pm. Then post a map showing no sleet until 11pm?  So I guess that's how we get 1 to 3".

Channel 5 says 2-4".

Seems like they don't believe their own maps.

[Lava Rock]

My PNC:

.WEDNESDAY...Snow or sleet in the morning, then rain likely or a
chance of snow or sleet likely in the afternoon. Additional light
snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to
15 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation
90 percent.

Sure, why not. It's to be expected. I'll go with 5-6" for my hood. Just about every storm has underperformed after looking good a few days out. Why change the trend now.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I think sleet gets up to a GFL -> RUT line , similar to Jan storm

I'm thinking SLK-MPV-1V4.  

Now, that doesn't mean it has much of an impact that far north.  I just think there will be some non-flakes up to that area...or sleet/snow mixture.  Not something that will really change accumulations, but some pellets fall.  Likely during some dry slot or lighter lift there could be pockets of sleet north.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Ch4 says sleet to Boston by 7 or 8pm. Then post a map showing no sleet until 11pm?  So I guess that's how we get 1 to 3".

Channel 5 says 2-4".

So as usual with these things...not all SWFE are the same but they tend to get lumped together 

With that being said I like 2 -4” for Boston. When BL temps are not the issue BOS has decent latitude 

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

My PNC:

.WEDNESDAY...Snow or sleet in the morning, then rain likely or a
chance of snow or sleet likely in the afternoon. Additional light
snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to
15 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation
90 percent.

Sure, why not. It's to be expected. I'll go with 5-6" for my hood. Just about every storm has underperformed after looking good a few days out. Why change the trend now.

What do you have on year ...50”?

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Ch4 says sleet to Boston by 7 or 8pm. Then post a map showing no sleet until 11pm?  So I guess that's how we get 1 to 3".

Channel 5 says 2-4".

Seems like they don't believe their own maps.

Harvey will be on tonight to settle the matter.  Minor leaguers are on daytime 

[qg_omega]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I'm thinking SLK-MPV-1V4.  

Now, that doesn't mean it has much of an impact that far north.  I just think there will be some non-flakes up to that area...or sleet/snow mixture.  Not something that will really change accumulations, but some pellets fall.

I do not think Gore or Whiteface mix with sleet for any real period of time.  This looks like a good storm for them, not 20 inches like the storm in January, but still a solid 12-15.   Its too bad we had all that warmth and rain in between, it was epic conditions just two weekends ago.  I heard this past weekend was ok firm/fast.  Base is still solid in woods, this snow should reopen everything.  

[dendrite]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He ain't getting pure sleet. Dude will get a foot by the time it winds down. 

If he does it would be brief.

[Lava Rock]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So as usual with these things...not all SWFE are the same but they tend to get lumped together 

With that being said I like 2 -4” for Boston. When BL temps are not the issue BOS has decent latitude 

What do you have on year ...50”?

yes. what's your point?  I know SNE has had major suck fest this year, but it hasn't been that great in our hood despite being about avg for the season.

[ORH_wxman]

As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. 

If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8".

 

When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does.  

 

[Sugarloaf1989]

WU is forecasting 7" here in Enfield with snow from 11am to 9pm. Sleet until 11pm, ZR until 1am, then rain.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. 

If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8".

 

When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does.  

 

I have that as my guess with more confidence 4-5.