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Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper


Baroclinic Zone
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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha true on time of year and I guess sleet doesn't cause that many issues no matter how much QPF is in it.  I don't know why I was thinking Advisory was 3", not 4". Is your warning 6" or 7"?  I might have been picturing 3"/6" for the headlines.

2 inches of Sleet causes more issues on the highways than a foot of powder 

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31 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Glad to see we're giving up 4-6" SN for IP.

I know we won't get any sympathy from the SNE folks who are flirting with futility, but this has been a frustrating winter despite being right around seasonal averages so far. Virtually every storm has turned into a slop-fest, and of course we've had the torches in between.

Anyway, this has the look of a 6" thump followed by some pelting before we dry slot. Then we garnish it with some rain on Friday before refreezing everything.  

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Question regarding the NWS Hourly Weather graph.

The graph has numbers for expected snowfall and rainfall per hour.  Sleet is given as occasional, etc., but no amounts given. Same with freezing rain.

Are these tallied under the snow and rain amounts?

Rain is the total liquid eq. in 6 hourly periods. Snow would be all frozen in 6 hourly periods.

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9 minutes ago, PWMan said:

I know we won't get any sympathy from the SNE folks who are flirting with futility, but this has been a frustrating winter despite being right around seasonal averages so far. Virtually every storm has turned into a slop-fest, and of course we've had the torches in between.

Anyway, this has the look of a 6" thump followed by some pelting before we dry slot. Then we garnish it with some rain on Friday before refreezing everything.  

Exactly. This could be a fairly easy 10-14" storm if there weren't any taint. I don't think any storm has overperformed this year which adds to the frustration. I'll typically look at the predicted range at 24hr and expect to get the low end or shave off 1-2" from that. We've melted out quite a bit over the last week, so any snow is welcome

capture1.jpg

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Exactly. This could be a fairly easy 10-14" storm if there weren't any taint. I don't think any storm has overperformed this year which adds to the frustration. I'll typically look at the predicted range at 24hr and expect to get the low end or shave off 1-2" from that. We've melted out quite a bit over the last week, so any snow is welcome

capture1.jpg

Sniff, Sniff, You will be much happier next month when its still on the ground.

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NAM cooled at 12z a little bit....still pretty torchy overall, but it holds the sleet off maybe for an hour earlier. HRRR/RPM/RAP are all going for 5-6" from about BOS-ORH northward in SNE....NAM is still the least at around 3" with 4-5" up by Ray.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM cooled at 12z a little bit....still pretty torchy overall, but it holds the sleet off maybe for an hour earlier. HRRR/RPM/RAP are all going for 5-6" from about BOS-ORH northward in SNE....NAM is still the least at around 3" with 4-5" up by Ray.

The HRRR has done pretty well with the events of 2019 so far

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If the NAM is to be believed, Ashby and Central MA is going to have an interesting time with some freezing rain.  I have a feeling that I may switch over to rain while the valley below will see a more freezing rain event.  It is interesting the effect 200ft has on the significance of icing in Ashby.

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3 minutes ago, wxextreme said:

If the NAM is to be believed, Ashby and Central MA is going to have an interesting time with some freezing rain.  I have a feeling that I may switch over to rain while the valley below will see a more freezing rain event.  It is interesting the effect 200ft has on the significance of icing in Ashby.

Nah at elevation we'll get the freezing rain, this isn't a scouring out the cold air type of event it's a cold air drain type of event.....I think. 

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4 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Nah at elevation we'll get the freezing rain, this isn't a scouring out the cold air type of event it's a cold air drain type of event.....I think. 

I am not so convinced, it usually happens that the valley below usually gets CAD and the icing is more significant there.  Will be interesting to see.  I have been thinking of setting up a mesonet in the area to explore this

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40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM cooled at 12z a little bit....still pretty torchy overall, but it holds the sleet off maybe for an hour earlier. HRRR/RPM/RAP are all going for 5-6" from about BOS-ORH northward in SNE....NAM is still the least at around 3" with 4-5" up by Ray.

Seems like the most interesting area I’d say ORH to ASH eastward with regard to how the cold does beating back the sleet line tonite . Obviously the further NE in this set up the more resistance potential .

Will the sleet line march north to ASH over to say Gloucester by 8pm...while areas of Essex county hold out longer ...

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22 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Nah at elevation we'll get the freezing rain, this isn't a scouring out the cold air type of event it's a cold air drain type of event.....I think. 

That drain fell .5* short in NW zones the last time.

Meanwhike my car was reading only 14* during my drive to greenfield just now.

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