ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 NAM still a torch in mid-levels. Nice model battle....I'd lean toward it but not sure I'm buying hook line and sinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 NAM looks like a couple inches of snow before we change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NAM still a torch in mid-levels. Nice model battle....I'd lean toward it but not sure I'm buying hook line and sinker. Even warms the surface toward the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Looks like even more sleet than the 18z run LOL. Fitting for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Looks like I flip to sleet around 3z after 5-6" of snow. Then we pelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 So who do we trust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Pivotal weather has some spots of ct with almost .25 of zr. Kev ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: So who do we trust? I say respect the tongue. Would not go all in on the Nam, but we know how these elevated warm tongues do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: So who do we trust? I'd lean toward the NAM....I am not quite biting on it full though. There's still some synoptic features that give me a little pause....the warm push could run into some temporary resistance, Omega will play a role too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd lean toward the NAM....I am not quite biting on it full though. There's still some synoptic features that give me a little pause....the warm push could run into some temporary resistance, Omega will play a role too. 70/30 blend with NAM and the other stuff is what I went with. The paint peeling pinger fest probably good for an inch of accumulation on top of whatever snow falls too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2-4 S of pike away from S coast 3-6 ASH S to pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 70/30 blend with NAM and the other stuff is what I went with. The paint peeling pinger fest probably good for an inch of accumulation on top of whatever snow falls too. Yeah, the sleet will initially have prob like a 4 to 1 or even 5 to 1 ratio since 900mb is so frigid...like -10C...lot of pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: 2-4 S of pike away from S coast 3-6 ASH S to pike 2-5 south, 5-8 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I just don't see me flipping to ZR until the end.... It's fridgid out the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 NAM is colder at Logan in the T1 sigma level on the FRH FOUS. Never higher than 0 C at that level probably signals close to warning ice after several inches of sno ORH to ASH ... nasty storm should that pan out But I have feelin this may be an inch of PLs again for many n of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The warm tongue just looks more realistic on the NAM to me than the GFS...coming in like an anvil from H7 downward while the GFS pushes the same temp and temp advection through a 150mb layer for 6+ hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Nice fresh supply of cold coming down in lower levels as John alluded to. Good luck scouring that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nice fresh supply of cold coming down in lower levels as John alluded to. Good luck scouring that out. Dew point down to -1F here. Dropping like a rock attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Gotta love the old school dumbfounded look on this....Scooter and Phil ripping S+ while ART/SYR/ALB are getting scalped....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice fresh supply of cold coming down in lower levels as John alluded to. Good luck scouring that out. 14/-3 here and winds still gusting to 15mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: Dew point down to -1F here. Dropping like a rock attm. We just dropped 6F in the dew here in the last 20min. 6F now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Even warms the surface toward the end Warm tongues all over our Enfield fannies. Bring on Morch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice fresh supply of cold coming down in lower levels as John alluded to. Good luck scouring that out. Yeah honestly .. I don't see that happening. I mean the warmth can fist all it wants above 900 ... Ptype fine . But the surface locks at or less than freezing in this shoukd be a warning for dual/ aggregate impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Obs/nowcast thread started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gotta love the old school dumbfounded look on this....Scooter and Phil ripping S+ while ART/SYR/ALB are getting scalped....lol Weymouth snow, Holliston IP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gotta love the old school dumbfounded look on this....Scooter and Phil ripping S+ while ART/SYR/ALB are getting scalped....lol Has about 5-6" in NE MA changing over to ip somewhere between 00z and 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gotta love the old school dumbfounded look on this....Scooter and Phil ripping S+ while ART/SYR/ALB are getting scalped....lol Don't know exactly how the NAM and RGEM algos print out sleet but based on the soundings I just checked it appears as soon as any layer breaks the 0 c line the algos show sleet. I remember this from years ago. Principal forecast issues Liquid equivalent to sleet ratio Erosion of a sleet producing melting layer, supporting snow at the expense of sleet If due to melting, evaluate soundings for presence of a near freezing isothermal layer. More likely to occur when the thickness values in the 850/700 mb layer are in the 1550-57 range. If due to cold air advection, note trends in the 850/700 mb partial thickness values. A max temperature in the melting layer < 1 C supports snow while temperatures > 1 C and < 3 C support a snow/sleet mix to sleet event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weymouth snow, Holliston IP? Lol...pretty close on that. Almost has Mitch pinging while the Cape is still snowing. This is still one of my favorite sfc maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I wonder if we see a tuck as well late tomorrow night. I'm having a little trouble seeing SNH warm as much as guidance has, especially with that high location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Secondary just doesn't get stronger ... it'd cut off that 700 mbar elevated WCB fold it back into a trowal ...that would be a fun bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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