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Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper


Baroclinic Zone
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4 minutes ago, PWMan said:

lol - give me a break. Those types of maps drive me nuts because they imply a level of precision that just isn’t there.

lol, That wont be the last change either, Looks like a blue can of paint got spilled, Mostly elevation driven i believe but that's getting to fine on detail.

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I am surprised Gray doesn't have the South part of Grafton County (Plymouth area) NH is a WSW.   The 850 line doesn't even get to us.  I really expect more than 6-8".  Even it is 6-8" and then sleet wouldn't that still verify as a WSW?  Guess it really doesn't matter to the public.

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41 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Realistically, how much ZR do you expect at your house?  Make sure you take pics.

I bet you get under 0.1” accretion

Just let him keep fantasizing about the ice penguin magically waddling around his yard. He needs it ever since he stop believing in Santa when he turned 21.

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RPM has been ramping up all day. Earlier it looked like the NAM but now it's 8" north of pike. Even has it tickling BDL. 

Still think that's too optimistic but it's possible the NAM might be a little too pessimistic with 3-4". 

Im not seeing great cross hair structure on the soundings though like 12/16/07...which is what you look for both to maximize rates and also maximize dynamic opposition to the warm layer...tons of well formed dendrites melting into a marginal warm layer latently cools it faster than putrid flakes. Storms like 12/16/07 produced 2-3" per hour rates to help achieve the positive bust. 

So I'll stick to the advisory amounts for now. 

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Man it’s so cold tomorrow evening from 900 and below. So cold that mesos have low level CAPE at Logan. :lol:   I don’t expect it to be super adiabatic, so my guess is the model temps of 32-34 right at the beaches is more like 31-32 for a time. Usually when it’s near saturated lapse rates are less. That means srfc temps need to be cooler. It’s also why I’m not sure I agree with the cstl gradient look unless the Logan observer has Mets shook. 

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Welp ...sufficed it is to say ... the models are either going to do shockingly well in the face of a slab of concrete below 900 mbs ...or, they are going to do typically poorly.

I think the world's on crack if they think an actual high pressure N of Maine yields the BL at Bedford Mass ...like, ever...

straight rain ...that's what I'm seeing on evening news.  

It'll be interesting -

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Welp ...sufficed it is to say ... the models are either going to do shockingly well in the face of a slab of concrete below 900 mbs ...or, they are going to do typically poorly.

I think the world's on crack if they think an actual high pressure N of Maine yields the BL at Bedford Mass ...like, ever...

straight rain ...that's what I'm seeing on evening news.  

It'll be interesting -

BOX has rain in all of SNE except highest terrain of Berks by tomorrow night in their AFD :lol: 

 

e being overcome. As warmer
air expands we`ll change over to rain. The transition line
moves north and west until by early Wednesday morning the all
except for the high terrain of the Berkshires will be purely
rain.
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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

I am surprised Gray doesn't have the South part of Grafton County (Plymouth area) NH is a WSW.   The 850 line doesn't even get to us.  I really expect more than 6-8".  Even it is 6-8" and then sleet wouldn't that still verify as a WSW?  Guess it really doesn't matter to the public.

2019-02-11_194228.jpg

Haddad agrees..

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44 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looking at the Northeast as a whole the Central part of NH sticks out of the WSW area with a watch only.   We will see.

 

You missed our discussion earlier on it... I was very surprised, lol.  I might have had a mini-rant on how you've got a frozen 1"+ QPF event coming and can't decide whether to go with a warning.  If you issue an Advisory it gives the public the wrong idea, as those get issued for 30-minutes of freezing drizzle before rain.

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