moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not a bad forecast. I'd go roughly that amount for pike region right now. Solid advisory. To be obliterated by a 50* soaker 2 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If the NAM is right it’s another big zr /power issue storm for much of CT. This time falling at night Have you got your power back from the last storm? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The 2m temps here are much colder than in the last system (I'm not sure about the one 2 systems ago). The temp/depth of the warm layer will need to be enough to keep it from being ip. Your area is fine. Mainly all snow . Hour or 2 of sleet. This is tilted SE- NW. You’re deep enough aloft . Down here surface stays frigid , but 925 torches as does 700, so we sleet for a hours to sig zr, never getting above 32 until later in the week . These never trend colder getting this close in. I’d go 8-10” for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, kdxken said: Have you got your power back from the last storm? We correctly called the icestorm .. we incorrectly called power though thousands lost it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Your area is fine. Mainly all snow . Hour or 2 of sleet. This is tilted SE- NW. You’re deep enough aloft . Down here surface stays frigid , but 925 torches as does 700, so we sleet for a hours to sig zr, never getting above 32 until later in the week . These never trend colder getting this close in. I’d go 8-10” for you I hope so. I was actually referring to the odds of zr for pike/below. With the really cold surface, those drops will need to be warm enough not to refreeze. Seems like you're confident in that. If so, have the generator handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Weather Prediction Center has the 50% prob for 6 inches cutting from Central Berks to Hubbdave to Hollis NH to about Dover NH currently 50% of 2” line is PYM to KTAN to Ginxy to New Haven I’d be a little cautious with those. Some of their blend is going to mix too much on the eastern coastline, and thereby reduce the probs in those zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: I hope so. I was actually referring to the odds of zr for pike/below. With the really cold surface, those drops will need to be warm enough not to refreeze. Seems like you're confident in that. If so, have the generator handy. Probably .25-.40 accretion . Not enough for massive issues, but enough for some . Unless some narrow zone can pull .50 + like Bethany did in that last one when the whole town was out for a few days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Not enough QPF as ZR for big power issue icing. Maybe some isolated spots get a quarter inch of accretion which might produce a few scattered outages. There's a lot of QPF as snow and sleet first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not enough QPF as ZR for big power issue icing. Maybe some isolated spots get a quarter inch of accretion which might produce a few scattered outages. There's a lot of QPF as snow and sleet first. I remember thinking that Jan 19th storm . And that sleet raced north and so did the zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I remember thinking that Jan 19th storm . And that sleet raced north and so did the zr That one looked pretty icy though (actually ended up a lot more sleet than thought for most)...maybe this one trends that way but that setup was a bit more conductive for icing. It had a big cold tuck mesolow after a very clear epic warm layer and a very long plume of moisture from the southwest that was going to proceed for 8-10 hours after the changeover...this one looks much more like a typical SWFE. Snow to sleet to ZR...but you dryslot before the ZR really goes that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Didn't get any ZR with either storm. Maybe third time lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: Didn't get any ZR with either storm. Maybe third time lucky. Ip here iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 31 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Solid advisory. To be obliterated by a 50* soaker 2 days later. Wrong, endless winter until mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We correctly called the icestorm .. we incorrectly called power though thousands lost it It was a pretty meh ice event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I going heavier on snow deeper cold, high FGEN, more intense lift precip .5 to .8 with ratios before sleet contamination, very little ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 NAM def cooled off from 06z run. Still has a good warm layer but instead of sleet at NH border at 00z its near pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Can't lose this season apparently.... Looks like the EURO/GGEM/GFS all have over 1" QPF as snow. Winners win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I going heavier on snow deeper cold, high FGEN, more intense lift precip .5 to .8 with ratios before sleet contamination, very little ice It can be all snow and still have avg/below avg ratios. The warm tongue is coming aloft whether there's a flip to sleet or not. You know how these work. When your DGZ goes up to H6 and above and your max lift is below H7, it's not very conducive to big ratios. You don't magically go from great ratios to a changeover to sleet in these setups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Newburgh to Lewiston line and NW are the winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Newburgh to Lewiston line and NW are the winners. Works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM def cooled off from 06z run. Still has a good warm layer but instead of sleet at NH border at 00z its near pike. I think it just looks about 3hr slower than 6z with the WCB. 850 0C still makes it up to me like the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: It can be all snow and still have avg/below avg ratios. The warm tongue is coming aloft whether there's a flip to sleet or not. You know how these work. When your DGZ goes up to H6 and above and your max lift is below H7, it's not very conducive to big ratios. You don't magically go from great ratios to a changeover to sleet in these setups. We will see. You have been humping the NAM this year with good results. I am thinking the whole column stays colder longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think it just looks about 3hr slower than 6z with the WCB. 850 0C still makes it up to me like the previous run. Maybe. It def had a bit more qpf as snow down here regardless of the final northern extent of the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe. It def had a bit more qpf as snow down here regardless of the final northern extent of the mix. Getting a clue slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe. It def had a bit more qpf as snow down here regardless of the final northern extent of the mix. Still beyond it's usefulness, but steps is steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: He’s on point this year. Didn’t flinch when Harv went gamgbusters early with 8-12 inside Northern 128 a couple winter storms ago What? Harv backed way off that as we got closer. I’d take Harvey’s forecast tomorrow evening to the bank. I didn’t see Burbank’s map but latitude should play better than what is being depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Like that call a lot Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 NAM: the whole structure ...all attributes ... "looks" like it is corrected south. Pressure pattern to ptypes and frontal positions...all trended south, some more subtle than others, but south. I think as Brian pointed out it is a bit slower... but, I also see the primary mechanics as weaker, so the secondary is not being mechanically cleaved into the cold as liberally on this run. Upon digesting the overnight runs with the late week thing ...I'm beginning to wonder if that is going to be a requirement during this particular quasi-zonal pattern, where late mid range features have a polar biases that need adjusting S as they get into shorter range. The GFS' various cycles going back some 10 clicks are pretty demonstratively correcting the barotropic region of the late week system S and along with...the parental low ..though not as much. interesting. But, part of the polar-ward bias (if so) could very well be facilitated by systems being too amplified and having to owe to the "stretched" nature of the field, they tend to correct flatter in nearer terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: I’m noticing a trend across guidance for the primary to close off later at H5. To me that means the chance is increasing over time for an earlier pop of the coastal low. I also anticipate the low level CAD due to that surface high strength/position will be more significant than modeled—even all the way down to the Mid Atlantic at 48 hrs. Expecting to see cold air damning —upper 20’s down to central Virginia wouldn’t surprise me at 12z Tuesday... The ship has sailed on the coastal saving the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The ship has sailed on the coastal saving the day. The Pope leads a belief system, not science. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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