78Blizzard Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The weenie extended RGEM looks very odd. Albany gets an inch while Philly gets 6-8", even allowing for Philly getting 2" in the first wave. I've just about had all the crap I can stand from these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 BOX going long for the Pit on the front end: Tuesday Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 27. East wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain and sleet between 1am and 2am, then snow and sleet after 2am. Low around 22. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Wednesday Snow likely, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. West wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: BOX going long for the Pit on the front end: Tuesday Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 27. East wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain and sleet between 1am and 2am, then snow and sleet after 2am. Low around 22. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Wednesday Snow likely, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. West wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Seems more than reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Seems more than reasonable. Could be pretty righteous if we can avoid the taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 fwiw the first call map on boston tv that I've seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 18z euro is really slow. Doesn't get any precip into pike region until after 18z. But it doesn't really change much else outside of timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: fwiw the first call map on boston tv that I've seen. Has to be wankum 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Not an unreasonable 1st guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Not an unreasonable 1st guess 18 z Euro snow depth at finish of frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Has to be wankum Yup. He did mention that he thinks the Euro and GFS are underestimating the warm layers. To be fair he also said this will change... Weird to see CVB put out the 1st map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not an unreasonable 1st guess I thought the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 18 z Euro snow depth at finish of frozen 10:1 is gonna happen here as well, so lop off a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The GFS parallel run was so intense with the front wall ( and slightly colder at that ...) it looks like 8" solid over much of the region then sleet and ZR to .25" accretion ends as 33 drizzle. That would be major impact event considering the crank up time is about 2pm on a weekday ... In that evolution, places going from virga and flurries to sub 1/4 mi vis blindness inside of a half hour... It also did some weird funky way correction south with the latter event next weekend, ... crucially in that solution, no lead side polar surface ridging ... ... Not saying I put much stock in that solution but, sufficed it is to say, there's time to modulate that bad boy. I know I know - f' off. No one's biting.. .But I chose objectivity - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 18 z Euro snow depth at finish of frozen Too many shades of purple. Looks good, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Too many shades of purple. Looks good, though. A few shades of grey for James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The GFS parallel run was so intense with the front wall ( and slightly colder at that ...) it looks like 8" solid over much of the region then sleet and ZR to .25" accretion ends as 33 drizzle. That would be major impact event considering the crank up time is about 2pm on a weekday ... In that evolution, places going from virga and flurries to sub 1/4 mi vis blindness inside of a half hour... It also did some weird funky way correction south with the latter event next weekend, ... crucially in that solution, no lead side polar surface ridging ... ... Not saying I put much stock in that solution but, sufficed it is to say, there's time to modulate that bad boy. I know I know - f' off. No one's biting.. .But I chose objectivity - Lean colder on that Friday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lean colder on that Friday system Nite nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 It looks like the Nam is weaker with a primary and a bit colder up in the CAD region 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 It's crazy… Has almost the entire state of Pennsylvania pellet rattling east of Pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 It's wrong it's a little bit more intense with the secondary but ironically uses that to carve into the cold air so Kinda offsets… Probably a solution in flux still. northern Maine looks like gets hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The 0z NAM (I realize it is the NAM way out in time) verbatim would certainly be workable here in NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 hours ago, 8611Blizz said: fwiw the first call map on boston tv that I've seen. Good map. I think that’s what the final outcome will generally look like... maybe shave an inch off each zone. 1-2” before slip down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I don't think they'll be the cstl gradient of snow like that advertises. Just my guess...probably more latitudinal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think they'll be the cstl gradient of snow like that advertises. Just my guess...probably more latitudinal. Agree...if anything...it will be more sw to ne, not se to nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think they'll be the cstl gradient of snow like that advertises. Just my guess...probably more latitudinal. You took the words right out of my mouth on that one. That has been bothering me all day and the Euro has shown the same idea. The last time I recall seeing models depict this was February 2008 and it massively busted. They didn’t have the snow shield advancing probably overdoing subsidence or dry air from the departing high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: You took the words right out of my mouth on that one. That has been bothering me all day and the Euro has shown the same idea. The last time I recall seeing models depict this was February 2008 and it massively busted. They didn’t have the snow shield advancing probably overdoing subsidence or dry air from the departing high I mean I suppose if the parent low wraps up and the secondary plows into SNE perhaps. But if this moves across the canal area...I think it will be more latitudinal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 You know at this point I can accept a ratter of a winter...but what infuriates me is watching this little Sunday night system morph into a 2-5” deal for Philly/SNJ while the Tuesday event trends toward a sleet to rain scenario here along the shoreline. NYC and S CT/SE MA is just getting boned in every possible way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 GFS looks weaker with the primary too 60 hours not sure if it's actually weaker or just slower or both. I think Will mentioned the 18z euro was slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I see… The GFS is doing what the Nam did. It's got the primary further east but instead of committing more of a secondary just uses that/more mechanical power to be erode out cold air more which is not going to happen I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 S/w in question looked sharper at 00z, but end result wasn't much different. GFS can't commit to where the secondary will go and decides to have an arm of low pressure move over SNE. In reality, it probably will go over SE MA like they normally do in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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