Lava Rock Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Mwn gusted to 148 highest wind in 10 yearsKillerSent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Like Will just said...the ice doesn’t look to be a big deal... but the way this year is going, I suppose anything is possible, except maybe an all snow system???? November 15th still reigns supreme this year in SNE..at least for me(8.75” in that one), not looking like this beats it..at least not currently???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The antecedent airmass in this one is much colder than the one back in January....we actually had to advect in the cold last month during the storm. We started that one in the upper 20s and then eventually fell back as the CAD strengthened....this one is gonna be like in the teens at the start once we wetbulb. The front end potential in this one looks a bit better too because of where the high is located...smack in the middle of Quebec is a good place for it to form the "brick wall" of cold that can create the big front end ML fronto for a thump. Started that storm near 10 degrees and fell back to 5 degrees, this airmass is actually much warmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z NAM is icy!! Yeah... My easiest correction with the mid week deal is that regardless of what model, 0 of them will absolutely handle the lower thicknesses of the troposphere. I've said this many times before; that's fact. They can't - it's mathematically impossible for them to resolve the jagged nature of the tactility between the air and land, and what is called the turbulent "Ekman boundary" - where turbulent drag exists. ... Oh, they can get to within the 90th percentile in a WSW deeply mixed barotropic June air mass approaching 90 F ... but that resolution will never approach that level of accuracy in a situation like the context of mid week. ( (cold air ends up underneath warm air ) + (Ekman fuzziness) ) / 2 = higher degree of error as to where the frontal position in that circumstance will truly be. That 90th percentile clarity of June drops precipitously when it comes to a polar high jamming cold back-filling air mass into the conduit region E of the Berks'/Greens and Whites... This next system should be even more convincingly icy than the last, with more obviously focused ageostrophic wind. If the elevated kinematics of warm transport weakens...say, because the system does find an anomalously stretched/elongation ..and concomitant weakening push aloft, the iciness gets more PL and snow along that spectrum. But as is? I don't care what met says what ... when > 70 % of a cyclostrophic energy is conserved over Lake Huron with a cold wedge over Quebec, you're probabilities are limited. It's been an interesting year of the models going out of their way to abut clad reasoning ...so, it'll be interesting to see the Euro now pull off the physically impossible snow bomb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Possibly 4" of snow .... .25" of sleet... . .3" of accreted ZR... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Possibly 4" of snow .... .25" of sleet... . .3" of accreted ZR... If that’s the case, I hope Friday is a warm rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Mwn gusted to 148 highest wind in 10 years Nuggin futs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: If that’s the case, I hope Friday is a warm rainer. It won't be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: If that’s the case, I hope Friday is a warm rainer. Ha! ...yeah, preachin' to the quire. Frankly, I tend to start losing my grip on winter enthusiasm as I approach the ides of February anyway... And, that is particularly going to be true in bent over, viciously unrelenting kosmik dildo winters like this one - it's going to average right up there in the bottom list if it goes on to end this way. Starting to get easier, if perhaps Stockholm Syndrome ... to foresee this just blithely attenuating out to tepid days interrupted by BD face smacks. Oy. I dunno... In all seriousness, there are too many big Marches in the annuls... I mean, this is not a prediction, but the fact of the matter is...we don't know - we don't know if this could be one of those Marches.... Let alone, we still got 20 days of this month... Ah, I get it - folks that vest in this emotionally have frustrations (even anger) and relying upon this winter? It's really like the horrible crush you had on the biggest ..uh, enter adjective here ... in high school. I mean, she gets to keep giving you cause to not let go, ...and you couldn't because you were compelled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Nice thump on the gfs then sleet and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha! ...yeah, preachin' to the quire. Frankly, I tend to start losing my grip on winter enthusiasm as I approach the ides of February anyway... And, that is particularly going to be true in bent over, viciously unrelenting kosmik dildo winters like this one - it's going to average right up there in the bottom list if it goes on to end this way. Starting to get easier, if perhaps Stockholm Syndrome ... to foresee this just blithely attenuating out to tepid days interrupted by BD face smacks. Oy. I dunno... In all seriousness, there are too many big Marches in the annuls... I mean, this is not a prediction, but the fact of the matter is...we don't know - we don't know if this could be one of those Marches.... Let alone, we still got 20 days of this month... Ah, I get it - folks that vest in this emotionally have frustrations (even anger) and relying upon this winter? It's really like the horrible crush you had on the biggest ..uh, enter adjective here ... in high school. I mean, she gets to keep giving you cause to not let go, ...and you couldn't because you were compelled... Right on cue...."ides of February" talk...tomorrow he'll drop an irradiance bomb, then on Valentine's day...haha..all bets are off- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right on cue...."ides of February" talk...tomorrow he'll drop an irradiance bomb, then on Valentine's day...haha..all bets are off- Every year since the forums began. Feb 10 brings out Tepid Tiptoe thru tulips Tip tanning tooshy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right on cue...."ides of February" talk...tomorrow he'll drop an irradiance bomb, then on Valentine's day...haha..all bets are off- Ah ha ha... meh, it's true though... The perennial solar minimum ends tomorrow why is it ... serious question: why is that just because someone writes about ...losing interest in the middle of February, that sparks smoldering resentment ... merely cloaked in good spirited ribbing? who cares? It's weird ... not sure what the mechanism is ... As though my or anyone else losing interest is a bad omen for one's own shattering illusion I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 lol, That 12z GGEM has been consistent, About all i can say, Too bad its not a good model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 This whole thread is weird. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Started that storm near 10 degrees and fell back to 5 degrees, this airmass is actually much warmer You're in the HV and were able to easily tap into that funneled arctic air. Most of us started around 30 and then plunged as the air drained south. This is much colder to start for most of our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: This whole thread is weird. Welcome to the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: You're in the HV and were able to easily tap into that funneled arctic air. Most of us started around 30 and then plunged as the air drained south. This is much colder to start for most of our forum. He’s been wrong all winter. Why start being right now ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Welcome to the forum. Yeah this is a new level of weird. If this place existed in the 80's by 1985 we would have live suicides with a storm like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: Yeah this is a new level of weird. If this place existed in the 80's by 1985 we would have live suicides with a storm like this one. In 1985 this storm would've been celebrated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12z GFS is a hellacious front end thump N of the Pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah ha ha... meh, it's true though... The perennial solar minimum ends tomorrow why is it ... serious question: why is that just because someone writes about ...losing interest in the middle of February, that sparks smoldering resentment ... merely cloaked in good spirited ribbing? who cares? It's weird ... not sure what the mechanism is ... As though my or anyone else losing interest is a bad omen for one's own shattering illusion I guess I don't resent the idea of this winter ending TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 Nice GFS reversal after 2 shitty runs 18z and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 WU went from 7"of snow to 4" of mixed precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massplow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 12z GFS is a hellacious front end thump N of the Pike. Anything decent south of the pike or should i get the umbrella out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 That’s a good look on the 12z GFS. Probably keeps those N of Route 2 mostly snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Massplow said: Anything decent south of the pike or should i get the umbrella out Easy 3-6” thump S of the Pike too. Maybe more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: In 1985 this storm would've been celebrated. I guess, but for me by 1985 I didn't give shit if it snowed or not and if the next five years are the same then I probably won't give a shit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Thump, cut, cold, repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Thump, cut, cold, repeat. Why is that bad? seriously...this is a good op for delving deeper into the murky psychology of 'why this crap matters' so much ... If it snows 4 or 5" ...then cuts to sleet and freezing rain, that's fine... Or should be - I'm starting to really get a loss to figure out what it is people are after. I think it's a conditioning issue... IF we had endured a steady diet of snowy events... this would be a pleasant diversion? But, since we have not experienced, ...pretty much any exciting winter of modeling histrionics combined with fruitfully snowing outputs... this is some kind of intolerable asshole event. ..Funny watching en mass, sheep be herded along by the vicissitudes of modeling AI - seems like it... Reality check ...for me anyway. If it snows 4 or 5" and then we get advisory level icing over top, that's fascinating phenomenon period. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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