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AppsRunner

Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

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I have a feeling this is the one to get us to 6". It's been puking snow here and never really stopped. Flakes are pretty small right now though. Probably 1.75" in IC already. That band of orange that passed over me earlier was really something. 

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

HRRR/GFS looks like they will end up being incorrect in depicting a mostly snow event for this area.  So far sleet has dominated and the main surge of WAA is still on the way.  Good chance we get 1"+ sleet out of this.

I wonder why. Is the storm running any bit northwest of the latest model runs? It’s been a mix of snow and a bit of graupel since it started ripping at 1:45pm here. Seems like it’s been mostly straight snow here for awhile and looks like we have a good inch so far. 

Radar still looks like the heaviest snows are a county or so east of i35 but decent snows are extending west over our area and even a few counties west of that so the cutoff doesn’t appear to be tight with this. 

I’m going with 4.5 inches here just like the forecasts predict 

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Suppose I'll make a call.  I will go with about a quarter inch of ice imby, then ending with a bit of snow tomorrow.  Wouldn't be surprised to go a bit over on the ice as accretion efficiency looks excellent for the next few hours before it probably gets a bit worse.

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Back to 1"/hr rates easy. Flakes are only average sized but there's so many of them it looks like heavy rain almost. Can't see the U of I hospital, about a 1/2 mile away. Vis is definitely under 1/4 mile atm.

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27 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

I wonder why. Is the storm running any bit northwest of the latest model runs? It’s been a mix of snow and a bit of graupel since it started ripping at 1:45pm here. Seems like it’s been mostly straight snow here for awhile and looks like we have a good inch so far. 

Radar still looks like the heaviest snows are a county or so east of i35 but decent snows are extending west over our area and even a few counties west of that so the cutoff doesn’t appear to be tight with this. 

I’m going with 4.5 inches here just like the forecasts predict 

It wasn't aggressive enough with the warm layer at 850mb.  The latest run has finally caught on though, and now keeps us all sleet and freezing rain until after midnight.  Using a 3:1 ratio for sleet, it's looking like 1-1.5" of sleet, but if some of that is freezing rain that will cut into that.  There is a smidge of freezing rain mixing in now, so wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain become more dominant than sleet for awhile at some point.  

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Suppose I'll make a call.  I will go with about a quarter inch of ice imby, then ending with a bit of snow tomorrow.  Wouldn't be surprised to go a bit over on the ice as accretion efficiency looks excellent for the next few hours before it probably gets a bit worse.

Layer of ice on my Weber grill here in Eastern IKK county

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9 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Hmm. No backside heavy snow before it ends? 

potential for an inch or two as it pulls out.

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4 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Like little feathers of bad weather heading into northern Indiana

a7MMiMb.jpg

image.png.11b7f55a35c54d3792e763d487f47695.png

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6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

It wasn't aggressive enough with the warm layer at 850mb.  The latest run has finally caught on though, and now keeps us all sleet and freezing rain until after midnight.  Using a 3:1 ratio for sleet, it's looking like 1-1.5" of sleet, but if some of that is freezing rain that will cut into that.  There is a smidge of freezing rain mixing in now, so wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain become more dominant than sleet for awhile at some point.  

Did you move to N Central IN.? Sounds like our weekly weather lately lol.  At least it's going to be  a normal WAA to snow progression for ya not bass ackwards like its been around here.  You need to start the last thread of the winter damn it.  :pimp:

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28 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

It wasn't aggressive enough with the warm layer at 850mb.  The latest run has finally caught on though, and now keeps us all sleet and freezing rain until after midnight.  Using a 3:1 ratio for sleet, it's looking like 1-1.5" of sleet, but if some of that is freezing rain that will cut into that.  There is a smidge of freezing rain mixing in now, so wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain become more dominant than sleet for awhile at some point.  

At least the sleet provides traction for drivers. But I am surprised after all the juicy eastern IA snowfall maps I saw today 

i called my job today and I was lucky the general manager gave me the night off because I have rear wheel drive and would get stranded with the amount of snow we are getting on the roads now 

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Yea the mixed precip line is coming northward pretty fast. Looking like a mix is probable in Iowa City for a period. Areas just to my north and west should be okay(CR).

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Sleet is really piling up out there.  Probably 1/3" to 1/2" already on top of the 0.3" of snow that fell earlier.

CC doing a great job at showing the snow/mix line.  The loops shows the snow/mix line slowly advancing northward as well.

2r5e1z7.jpg

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44 minutes ago, King James said:


Layer of ice on my Weber grill here in Eastern IKK county

Surprised there isn't an advisory there.  Curious to see how long you hang on to ice, and it will help to give me a better idea of when the changeover is coming lol

Some models don't flip me to plain rain until the dry slot is basically on the doorstep.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Surprised there isn't an advisory there.  Curious to see how long you hang on to ice, and it will help to give me a better idea of when the changeover is coming lol

Yeah that part seems to be a bit of a miss on LOT's part. I'm in the NE part of the county and many walking surfaces are already glazed over.

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Pretty clear the warmer NAM is the way to go, and the GFS will be set up for an lol worthy fail.

Looks like a solid sleet/freezing rain event for a good portion of the LOT CWA.

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^

yup. I'm thinking we might get the ice we didn't get last week. With that wind could be in for more tree damage.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

0.20" ice accrual report NE of Galesburg already.

Holy Crow. Well, if that's any indicator the scary NAM may come to fruition. 

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Mix in Iowa City now. WAA was undermodeled essentially across the board with the worst offenders being the RGEM, GFS and RAP. This will cut into my total, perhaps significantly.

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Mix in Iowa City now. WAA was undermodeled essentially across the board with the worst offenders being the RGEM, GFS and RAP. This will cut into my total, perhaps significantly.

Sleet or freezing rain?  Judging by how fast the rain/sleet line is moving, we're going to see some sleet.  Hopefully no freezing rain.

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Just now, Natester said:

Sleet or freezing rain?  Judging by how fast the rain/sleet line is moving, we're going to see some sleet.  Hopefully no freezing rain.

No, you'll be fine. It's still 90% snow, but there's definitely some drizzle and a few ice pellets mixed in as well.

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Just now, hlcater said:

No, you'll be fine. It's still 90% snow, but there's definitely some drizzle and a few ice pellets mixed in as well.

Oh I see.  That line will probably reach Cedar Rapids in an hour or 90 minutes.

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Just now, Natester said:

Oh I see.  That line will probably reach Cedar Rapids in an hour or 90 minutes.

I think it'll end up stalling between North Liberty and Swisher. 

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