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AppsRunner

Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

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1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

GFS is a bit further south, keeps areas near/north of I-80 mostly/all snow

It's also pretty weak sauce.

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The difference in the placement of the snow/mix line is just lol worthy for being less than 24hrs out.  GFS is an all snow event here and buries us with 6"+, while the RGEM says we'll be hearing the pitter-patter of rain on the roof all night.  

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

The difference in the placement of the snow/mix line is just lol worthy for being less than 24hrs out.  GFS is an all snow event here and buries us with 6"+, while the RGEM says we'll be hearing the pitter-patter of rain on the roof all night.  

It seems like this is every storm here in Iowa this winter. I have no doubts you'll pull out 6" or so somehow

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RAP pretty far north with the snow/mix line, similar to the RGEM.  Think a blend is probably the best way to go at this point.  First call for here/QC is 0.5-1.5" of snow, and a minor glaze of ice.  May also see a period or plain rain later tomorrow evening.  

e7gjuf.jpg

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42 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The difference in the placement of the snow/mix line is just lol worthy for being less than 24hrs out.  GFS is an all snow event here and buries us with 6"+, while the RGEM says we'll be hearing the pitter-patter of rain on the roof all night.  

Yeah, thermal profiles are a mess.  Of course it's less a question of snow around here.  Conceptually speaking, with this type of track and daytime temps maybe peaking a degree or two above freezing at most, I see little reason to go against the idea of several hours of freezing rain here.  Precip rates should generally be around .1" per hour or less, which is gonna ice things up nicely especially if it can stay a couple degrees below freezing for a while. 

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RAP pretty far north with the snow/mix line, similar to the RGEM.  Think a blend is probably the best way to go at this point.  First call for here/QC is 0.5-1.5" of snow, and a minor glaze of ice.  May also see a period or plain rain later tomorrow evening.  
e7gjuf.jpg&key=306bd94f7f1a503f16ae7c94418faafc0c809b355c95e2fd73e8d131a64edf70

Low balling your area like usual.


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RAP pretty far north with the snow/mix line, similar to the RGEM.  Think a blend is probably the best way to go at this point.  First call for here/QC is 0.5-1.5" of snow, and a minor glaze of ice.  May also see a period or plain rain later tomorrow evening.  
e7gjuf.jpg&key=306bd94f7f1a503f16ae7c94418faafc0c809b355c95e2fd73e8d131a64edf70

By the way, the RAP and HRRR continue to trend south each run, and are going to be horrendous in their extended ranges as they have been with several recent systems.


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Winter Storm Warnings in southern WI counties.  Heavy snow with 6-9” of accumulation.  From 9 PM Monday to midnight Tuesday.

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Anyone notice what the 06 3K nam did with a secondary low coming up through Ohio Tuesday?  Or is that just the low re-positioning itself?  Weird.  

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_42.png

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29 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

1582977503_download(3).thumb.png.c30de2f6f7d75b4bfca9deb0ea94b9d1.png

I don't think Euro is seeing the slop fest the hi res models are seeing for extreme Northern IL. Euro has the 3-6" look whereas the NAM has a mix almost at onset with it just rain in the loop parts of the event. Going with more ice and mix than snow for most of northern tier counties .10-.25 ice accretion along with 2" snow. 

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1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

I don't think Euro is seeing the slop fest the hi res models are seeing for extreme Northern IL. Euro has the 3-6" look whereas the NAM has a mix almost at onset with it just rain in the loop parts of the event. Going with more ice and mix than snow for most of northern tier counties .10-.25 ice accretion along with 2" snow. 

Another frustrating winter trudges onward.  

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Wow, big time wallop looking likely for central WI. That map above has Madison flirting with double digit totals, although we whiffed on our previous opportunity to hit that single-storm benchmark earlier this winter.

Still, what a turnaround from the bare ground of December and most of the first half of January, although the two thaws were annoying especially the second coming on the heels of the historic polar vortex.

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Unless the short range guidance 2m and sfc wet bulb temps are too cold this evening into tonight, would think we have to extend headlines south at least to I-80 corridor counties. With brisk east-northeast surface winds coming from the cool dry high pressure to the east, doesn't look good for temps warming rapidly above freezing.

 

NAM12 verbatim has warning criteria ice all the way to 2 tiers south of the current advisory. Even if that's too far south and overdone with the ice accums, latest HRRR has headline worthy ice accums in the I-80 counties not currently in the advisory.

 

The other challenging aspect is exact p-type. Most recent RAP/HRRR are colder and have mainly sleet for I-88 counties and snow for WI border counties. From what I recall, RAP/HRRR did a good job picking up on the more stout low level cold wedge for our pinger fest on 12/28/2015.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Might LOT post ice storm warnings for certain areas?

Likely would be WSW’s, given a mix of p-types.


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