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AppsRunner

Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

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Then GEM comes in stronger than previous run. Obvious that models are still struggling with handling the synoptic setup for this system, particularly at h5.

The GFS and NAM continue to baby step south, but GFS had less backside snow on this run than previous, so end result wasn't great for northern IL. As Hoosier alluded to, would be surprised if there wasn't a freezing rain/mix zone in between predominantly snow area and rain area to south.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

GFS has a secondary deformation feature.  Doesn't produce much verbatim but keep an eye on it I guess if you're looking for flakes farther south.

A few of the earlier Euro runs showed that secondary deform feature as well, but it lost it on today's 12z.  Looks like if the 2nd deform feature actually happens it would be a very thread-the-needle type of an event for whoever got in on it.

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Euro has about 7-8 hours of freezing rain here, but precip amounts just over a quarter inch during that time.  That is the way to not "waste"

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Euro has about 7-8 hours of freezing rain here, but precip amounts just over a quarter inch during that time.  That is the way to not "waste"

Ha that'd be the complete opposite of the last event which had high intensity/low accretion.  Even though the accretion efficiency was pretty crappy with that last event, it's tough to beat the excitement of frequent thunder simultaneous with downpours of frz rain.  

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Is the nam to be taken seriously in NW OH/SE MI?  I know a lot of that is freezing rain/sleet but something else is going on now, 3 runs in a row. 

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1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

Is the nam to be taken seriously in NW OH/SE MI?  I know a lot of that is freezing rain/sleet but something else is going on now, 3 runs in a row. 

The other models give us a good amount, the NAM wants to knock out our power 

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GFS bumped south again. Stays mostly frozen I-80 and north in IL, mid to high end advisory type snow and a bit of freezing rain near to a bit north of I-80.

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Less than 36hrs from the event and still pretty up in the air what will fall here in the QCA.  The models have bumped the snow/mix line south compared to the past few days, and now some of the guidance shows mostly snow for the north half of the DVN cwa.  It's still close enough that a bump back north would mean a largely mix/rain event after a short period of snow.  The 12z RGEM is still a hold out, and keeps the precip mostly rain for the QCA.  All I can say for sure is it looks like around 1/2" of precip in some form will fall tomorrow night lol.

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2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Is the nam to be taken seriously in NW OH/SE MI?  I know a lot of that is freezing rain/sleet but something else is going on now, 3 runs in a row. 

Many times the NAM has more freezing rain accumulation than the GFS. The NAM likes to have the boundary layer hold onto the temperature inversion. I don't know if this is very helpful though. Most models are showing accumulating freezing rain at Toledo and along the Michigan border. It's likely that the NWS offices may expect 0.05-0.10" of freezing rain in this corridor and adjust upwards as the storm comes nearer. Her is a 2.5-day freezing rain forecast from the NWS. 

HxTAgTH.png

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21 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Many times the NAM has more freezing rain accumulation than the GFS. The NAM likes to have the boundary layer hold onto the temperature inversion. I don't know if this is very helpful though. Most models are showing accumulating freezing rain at Toledo and along the Michigan border. It's likely that the NWS offices may expect 0.05-0.10" of freezing rain in this corridor and adjust upwards as the storm comes nearer. Her is a 2.5-day freezing rain forecast from the NWS. 

HxTAgTH.png

Thank you for your insight into this.  

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Less than 36hrs from the event and still pretty up in the air what will fall here in the QCA.  The models have bumped the snow/mix line south compared to the past few days, and now some of the guidance shows mostly snow for the north half of the DVN cwa.  It's still close enough that a bump back north would mean a largely mix/rain event after a short period of snow.  The 12z RGEM is still a hold out, and keeps the precip mostly rain for the QCA.  All I can say for sure is it looks like around 1/2" of precip in some form will fall tomorrow night lol.

A lot of uncertainty here as well.  Some of the modeled warming north of the front tomorrow looks overdone.  With low level easterly flow, I don't see why temps would warm to that extent as long as it's cloudy.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

A lot of uncertainty here as well.  Some of the modeled warming north of the front tomorrow looks overdone.  With low level easterly flow, I don't see why temps would warm to that extent as long as it's cloudy.

This in particular looks ridiculous.  Not happening.  It is reminiscent of what the models were doing last Tuesday with excessive daytime warming.

HRRRFLT2_sfc_temp_033.png.02c97a554eca31163cd20dcd24235b35.png

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Right now I'd go with 4-8" for mby, given the fact we'll probably go over to some sort of mixture.  GEM and EURO though basically lock us in as snow beginning to end, but not ready to buy that yet.

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18 minutes ago, Baum said:

^

looks like that map was created at 2:41 am. Not sure if any changes are necessary.

Sorry tried to update please note early AM time

 

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

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Right now I think a band of about .2-.25" ice is a decent bet in the LOT cwa.  Probably biased more toward the I-80 corridor but can't rule out areas farther north toward I-88 as well, especially with eastward extent toward Cook county. 

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