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AppsRunner

Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

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Should be a pretty decent band of ice with this but track differences make it difficult to get too specific.

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49 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Screenshot_20190209-121951_Samsung Internet.jpg

Your plots make it look more normal. On Pivotal's map it appeared to from E/Central Ill due north. Yep, another consistent track over us. Not good for a decent snow.

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Yeah really starting to wonder if we will get a large snowfall, the good news is if we don’t it won’t be for a lack of good systems. Strong winds on the backside will be fun either way. 

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20 minutes ago, Maneee said:

Yeah really starting to wonder if we will get a large snowfall, the good news is if we don’t it won’t be for a lack of good systems. Strong winds on the backside will be fun either way. 

never been a big wind guy myself.....:lol:

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Regarding the ice potential, would note a couple things.  One, the warm nose aloft generally looks a bit less blowtorchy warm than the last system.  Two, while precip rates should be decent, the really high end rates/thunderstorms look less likely.  Both of those factors would suggest a lower percentage of runoff.

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Just put under a flood watch here again from Sun. night till Tues. morning.  My point forecast for the time period totals 1.5 inches of total precip, supposed to come as a mixture of snow, then freezing rain, and then rain.  I think the more significant ice potential will be north of me in north central IN and possibly southern parts of Chicago county warning area.

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Not liking my position in Iowa City. Looks like the best totals will be highway 20 and north. Which is usual of high end events out here. 

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5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Has the GFS-FV3 ever been correct?

That's two events using Kuchera method on a model that's been wetter than most other guidance. 

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6 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

That's two events using Kuchera method on a model that's been wetter than most other guidance. 

 

Heres 10:1

 

H105

 

 

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So do we ignore the 00Z nam or what.  Seem's like a game changer to me.  At least as far as the hi-res american models go.  

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18 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

So do we ignore the 00Z nam or what.  Seem's like a game changer to me.  At least as far as the hi-res american models go.  

Not ignore, especially since this is not out at 84 hours anymore. 

The NAM is kinda like watching election results start to come in.  The early returns (in this case the NAM) can sometimes be deceiving.

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Surface low is a bit jumpy on the NAM after 48 hours.  Maybe some convective influence there with the model trying to figure out where to place the L.

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Would be nice if the GFS could handle shallow cold better.  I'd almost bet money it is shoving the freezing line north too quickly.

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GFS has a secondary deformation feature.  Doesn't produce much verbatim but keep an eye on it I guess if you're looking for flakes farther south.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

GFS has a secondary deformation feature.  Doesn't produce much verbatim but keep an eye on it I guess if you're looking for flakes farther south.

am i correct in being somewhat disappointed in  tonight's early runs?

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4 minutes ago, Baum said:

am i correct in being somewhat disappointed in  tonight's early runs?

For Chicago metro, yeah.  I just checked the 00z GEM and you still have that.

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The NAM has repeatedly been underdoing precip in its long range, I have little faith in its solution outside 48 hours. 

Meanwhile the GFS/GEM are largely similar to previous runs 

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