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AppsRunner

Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

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The Davis gauge has started to record precip for the first time this evening, as apparently it's warm enough that melting has commenced.  Temp has bumped up from 31 to 32.  Surface thermal ridge will pass through shortly, and any melting should subside in the next hour or two.  Freezing rain is apparently now just rain, but the back edge is almost here.  This has been a pretty fun event to watch to be sure.

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Some select ASOS ice accums as of 06z (by adding up I6 groups in METARs):

MLI: 0.47

DVN: 0.41

ARR: 0.32

VPZ: 0.30

DPA: 0.27

ORD: 0.22

RFD: 0.19

CID: 0.18

MDW: 0.15

PIA: 0.14

PWK: 0.09

 

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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LOT finally added the additional counties I mentioned earlier to the ice storm warning, and upped ice totals to 0.50"...which will probably still be low in a few areas, but beter off than before.

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Significant icing on trees around here now, many being weighed down. They're not even moving too much in a 10-20mph breeze from time to time either.

Icing on pretty much all surfaces, with it stuck at 31/29 for several hours now.

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Outages increasing in northwest IN and my mom is one of them.  You guys up north are in for it.  It's gonna be terrible tomorrow when the winds pick up even where some of it is able to melt off the trees/powerlines.

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I just drove from Elgin to Lake Forest and then to Northbrook which is where I live. If you’re familiar with the area as I’m sure many of you will be it was an absolute skating rink on the interstate. Interstate 94, interstate 90, Illinois Route 53. Heavy icing in all of northern cook and Kane. Less so over Lake Forest yet there still is a pretty significant glaze over the college.  Very glad to see that the ice storm warning was updated. As I said earlier would’ve been really hell to forecast this out advance with only one very reliable medium range model pointing at it. 

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NE IN, NW OH, far SEMI may be getting the worse of the ice overnight, possible 1 inch amounts.  Nice moisture plume should over run the area in the next 4-6 hours with sub freezing surface temps.  I'd be real concerned for some severe icing in those areas.

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39 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

NE IN, NW OH, far SEMI may be getting the worse of the ice overnight, possible 1 inch amounts.  Nice moisture plume should over run the area in the next 4-6 hours with sub freezing surface temps.  I'd be real concerned for some severe icing in those areas.

Agreed, ice and winds are picking up here

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.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Monday) Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 The word of the day is "messy." Currently, a large precipitation shield is encompassing much of the Lower Great Lakes with a deepening surface low over central Illinois. A warm nose captured nicely by AMDAR soundings continues to inch northward, with dual- polarization radar data suggesting the snow/mixed precipitation line is currently along a line from Muskegon through Grand Rapids to Lansing. Mainly freezing rain has been noted south of the aforementioned line, with ASOS-reported ice accumulation rates in the neighborhood of 0.05-0.1"/hr along I-94. At our office in Grand Rapids, we`ve been enjoying a snow/sleet mix for the past hour or so. Easterly winds are gusting to 30-35 mph leading to blowing snow (where it is snowing) and efficient icing.

 

Oh boy... Jokes on us southern counties haha.  Have roughly a quarter inch of ice and still going. 29°, light/moderate ZR. Brisk east wind. No warning. Here comes the big one and no ****’s given haha 

 

*Edit* 

If any of you are readers or posters from roughly I-80 north to I-94 from Toledo to Chicago - just consider this an ice storm warning criteria event. Wouldn’t be surprised to end up with closer to a half of an inch with higher amounts locally. Roads are absolutely trash. Major highways are iced over and dangerous. If you don’t have to travel this morning please don’t. Making a report now via NWSChat. 

 

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Easily the most significant ice storm I can remember here.

Trees are caked, saggy and straining. If this ice remains on the trees several hours from now when the winds pick up, tree damage and power outages will be widespread.


.

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I'll keep my final call of 4-8" of snow, with 1-2" of sleet piled on top. Jibes it with EC's WSW call of 6-10".

Really doubtful we get any liquid per the RAP/HRRR. In these situations, the models almost always overdo the amount of sfc warming.

Not envious of those getting hit with ice. I've been there. Cross your fingers and hope you're not one of the unlucky ones to lose power.

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21 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

point has 10-18"... let the fun begin!

Had to LOL, Josh (snowfreak) is in Newberry this morning and I see he brought his Detroit snow climo with him... sitting in the blue 4-6" hole. :P

MQT_snow_00-24hr.png.308714a577a0d9b0ab7f35cf6bb4cede.png

Detroit climo is definitely a 4-6" magnet but if I brought my actual snow magnet with me, we should be reeling in the heavier totals in the area, not the least. That magnet worked for many years but was mysteriously stolen this winter, i have an investigator on the way to cycloneville to find it.

 

Jokes aside this is the deepest snow theyve had in newberry in years per the locals and ive never seen this much snow this far from Lake Superior. Fresh snow will be perfect and it wont snowbound me (10-18" would keep me anchored at a hotel...not fun lol).

 

An ice storm is raging at home. Sounds like snow to sleet now freezing rain with temps in the 20s.

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Not terrible out. Coating of snow providing traction on most surfaces plus temps aiding in melting. LOT calling for 1-2 inches of snow with high winds later today after a .25 of ice put us in a wind advisory after the ice storm warning expires. Hopefully some melting before the wind kicks in.

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NWS and models can't predict anything right at the moment. Yesterday they predicted 3-4'' with some models at 2''. Currently at almost 6'' with 2'' to come. Three storms in a row they under predicted. I'll take the snow though!

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

point has 10-18"... let the fun begin!

Had to LOL, Josh (snowfreak) is in Newberry this morning and I see he brought his Detroit snow climo with him... sitting in the blue 4-6" hole. :P

MQT_snow_00-24hr.png.308714a577a0d9b0ab7f35cf6bb4cede.png

Looking pretty good for you Bo, seems like the UP has been really cashing in on synoptic events this year. Looks like 8-10 for me with a little LES behind it. 

DzNFZRTWsAAAZ_N.jpg:large

 

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5.7" at the airport in Madison as of 6 AM.  Getting dry slotted now and wrap around snow will begin to move in in a couple hours

 

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If the NAM was the way to go for the ice storm around these parts, perhaps it’ll end up being the correct model for the backside snows today.

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3 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I'll keep my final call of 4-8" of snow, with 1-2" of sleet piled on top. Jibes it with EC's WSW call of 6-10".

Really doubtful we get any liquid per the RAP/HRRR. In these situations, the models almost always overdo the amount of sfc warming.

Not envious of those getting hit with ice. I've been there. Cross your fingers and hope you're not one of the unlucky ones to lose power.

Seeing those lake enhanced bands showing up on KC radar with the strong east wind. Looking at Detroit radar, the dry slot is also pretty aggressive. Don’t think HRRR will even come close to reality with what it’s showing(multiple hours of rain). 

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4” here with some light snow pushing through this morning. Minneapolis has now received over 20” of snow since Feb 1st. Running out of places to put it all. Estimate 15” OTG, and monthly snowfall record is within reach. My how the tables have turned 

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6.2" at my house this morning. It's not especially impressive given some of the guidance, but it's pretty. Also it looks like we might still get a couple more inches during the day today. 

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Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

.54” of ice. Going to be a big issue as this certainly won’t melt off before the wind starts. 

76246102-E18C-4546-94E6-CB0BC6A382A1.jpeg

You definitely had more ice than my area. Seems we had more sleet than zr. About .2 ice accretion

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