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Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

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35 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Likely going to see an axis of 0.25-0.75" ice across Northern Illinois somewhere.

.75?  That's scary stuff.  I've seen 1-1.25 in the SE when I lived in SC and it was damn near as bad as a hurricane when it came to power outages but nowhere near the cold that follows like up here.  I hope that doesn't come to fruition.  It makes for great photography in the morning though lol.

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Thanks, will pass your report on too. How are roads around there?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk


No clue but those that are out on the road are going slow

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44 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Swing for the fences

This is just about as good as a set-up I've seen around here for sig ice across a good portion of the area.

Given those earlier reports near GBG of 0.20", it should be fairly easy to get into at least the middle of that range.

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On the walk home from work.

The Park is a disaster. Mostly frozen solid but you can see some puddles.

Some sleet mixing in occasionally 

 

57F38E7E-B359-4002-B14D-5CFC2B0120B1.jpeg

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14 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

I’m on the southwest side of Kankakee. I just went outside and have about 0.10” on my trees/bushes. Branches are crackling in the wind. My girlfriends car is now encased in ice. Driveway...my street... total skating rink. It’s not great here. :lol:

I see you're in the more moderate returns.  So that stuff is freezing pretty well?  Looks to be moving in here soon.

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Randolph by Columbus starting to accumulate directly on the road.

It’s not much, but I want to emphasize how rare it is we get ice like this downtown AND close to the lake. I don’t think I’ve seen ice accumulate this quickly/efficiently downtown in the 6 years I’ve lived here.

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3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

IWX upgraded my county only. I promise I didn't take over the computer lol

Are you surprised they didn't upgrade Fulton and Williams just to your south? They also seem to be in same axis as you and the Lenawee and Monroe

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

This is just about as good as a set-up I've seen around here for sig ice across a good portion of the area.

Given those earlier reports near GBG of 0.20", it should be fairly easy to get into at least the middle of that range.

Yeah my area is a mix and figure it will stay that way the rest of the night. Maybe .5"down and now comes the crust.Tonights  forecast of 4-7" looks good if you live in Lake Geneva WI

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Been snowing for about the last 50 minutes here in Madison. So far, getting shades of our last "high-end" event with "heavy pixie dust" (teeny flakes but lots of them) at the outset.

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Not only is LOT doing a horrendous job, but DVN is following as well.

Ice accums by GBG have exceeded the forecast and are in warning criteria range now.


.

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This icing is over performing here. Temp has been holding at 32. Everything elevated really accumulating ice well. I say we have at least a tenth of an inch. Probably on our way to .2in. Powerlines and trees have icicles hanging off them. The lighter rates compared to last time are helping in more efficient accretion 

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Sounds like someone throwing BB's at the window. Does look like the snow is going to stay around and north of the IL/WI state line. So close to a decent accumulation.

Wonder how conditions are going to be in the morning, I can't see how school buses will be able to get around at 6 AM in some of the rural roads of Kane County.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not only is LOT doing a horrendous job, but DVN is following as well.

Ice accums by GBG have exceeded the forecast and are in warning criteria range now.


.

I would highly recommend LOT issue an ice storm warning immediately.

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Gonna have to lower my call again, from 5" down to 4". This warm air aloft is firmly entrenched and not moving any time soon. Ice accrual is going to become a problem here very soon. Horrendous performance by all the models. 

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 The warm nose was completely under modeled and frankly was hard to forecast by any stretch of the imagination. Also ice events have a tendency to underperform in northern Illinois. North America model scored a huge win tonight and was an outlier so personally I’m not going to get on the train of bashing LOT for doing what seems prudent. 

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I see you're in the more moderate returns.  So that stuff is freezing pretty well?  Looks to be moving in here soon.

Very efficiently. Untreated roads in my hood are pretty much gone now. Work is gonna be a blast tomorrow. :D

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Gonna have to lower my call again, from 5" down to 4". This warm air aloft is firmly entrenched and not moving any time soon. Ice accrual is going to become a problem here very soon. Horrendous performance by all the models. 

Reminds me of 2/24/2007, except nowhere near as bad.  Sleet starting to mix in here.

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About .2” of ice in DKB on top of about .7” of snow/sleet that fell earlier. Was surprised things are as icy as they are, as it wasn’t too bad just a couple hours ago. Certainly an interesting night ahead 

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This is the northeast facing window of my apartment. It’s probably just 500 meters from the lake front.

That is not water, it’s solid ice. 

More sleet mixing in now and winds are picking up.

9A4848E7-BB4B-42A4-9CC0-35F551518823.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Very efficiently. Untreated roads in my hood are pretty much gone now. Work is gonna be a blast tomorrow. :D

I went back out a couple mins ago and the pavement is pretty slippery now.  So more time elapsed and more liquid has done wonders.

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National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
826 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.UPDATE...Will be upgrading Milwaukee, Waukesha, Jefferson and
Rock counties to a Winter Storm Warning shortly. Too much evidence
from Model Certainty and Probablistic snow totals for amounts in
these areas from 6 to 8 inches. In addition, am concerned about a
period of freezing rain/drizzle Tuesday morning as ice stops
falling into the cloud layer for several hours. Concerns over
persistent lift from lake enhancement affecting parts of
Milwaukee county later tonight into Tuesday morning. All guidance
also takes 850H circulation across far northeast Il late tonight,
which places parts of Rock and Jefferson counties in favorable
track for heavier snow. Will leave Walworth, Kenosha and Racine in
advisory for now.

Widespread snow continues to spread northeast across the CWA this
evening. Strong coupled jet structure and aloft and a period of
impressive sloping frontogenetical forcing in the low levels
overnight. One troubling piece is that the best low level forcing
from the frontogenesis does not intersect the better dendritic
growth zone.

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About 3.5" here - snow had decreased in intensity up until about 10 minutes ago, now snowing harder.  Wind increasing as well.  Roads are awful.  Snow day #10 tomorrow . . . 

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Just stepped out a bit ago, and it's pretty nasty out there when the wind picks up.  Getting some gusts over 25mph.  Hard to tell how much ice is on the trees due to the darkness, but it looks like a nice glaze has built up.  Luckily the winds should drop off a bit towards midnight, but the high winds later tomorrow could cause some trouble.  

EDIT:  I can hear the trees crackling in the breeze even inside the house now lol.

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Whoever can avoid significant mixing and is in the northern part of the freezing rain area should be the ice jackpot. 

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