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Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019


AppsRunner
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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

HRRR/GFS looks like they will end up being incorrect in depicting a mostly snow event for this area.  So far sleet has dominated and the main surge of WAA is still on the way.  Good chance we get 1"+ sleet out of this.

I wonder why. Is the storm running any bit northwest of the latest model runs? It’s been a mix of snow and a bit of graupel since it started ripping at 1:45pm here. Seems like it’s been mostly straight snow here for awhile and looks like we have a good inch so far. 

Radar still looks like the heaviest snows are a county or so east of i35 but decent snows are extending west over our area and even a few counties west of that so the cutoff doesn’t appear to be tight with this. 

I’m going with 4.5 inches here just like the forecasts predict 

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27 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

I wonder why. Is the storm running any bit northwest of the latest model runs? It’s been a mix of snow and a bit of graupel since it started ripping at 1:45pm here. Seems like it’s been mostly straight snow here for awhile and looks like we have a good inch so far. 

Radar still looks like the heaviest snows are a county or so east of i35 but decent snows are extending west over our area and even a few counties west of that so the cutoff doesn’t appear to be tight with this. 

I’m going with 4.5 inches here just like the forecasts predict 

It wasn't aggressive enough with the warm layer at 850mb.  The latest run has finally caught on though, and now keeps us all sleet and freezing rain until after midnight.  Using a 3:1 ratio for sleet, it's looking like 1-1.5" of sleet, but if some of that is freezing rain that will cut into that.  There is a smidge of freezing rain mixing in now, so wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain become more dominant than sleet for awhile at some point.  

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Suppose I'll make a call.  I will go with about a quarter inch of ice imby, then ending with a bit of snow tomorrow.  Wouldn't be surprised to go a bit over on the ice as accretion efficiency looks excellent for the next few hours before it probably gets a bit worse.

Layer of ice on my Weber grill here in Eastern IKK county
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6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

It wasn't aggressive enough with the warm layer at 850mb.  The latest run has finally caught on though, and now keeps us all sleet and freezing rain until after midnight.  Using a 3:1 ratio for sleet, it's looking like 1-1.5" of sleet, but if some of that is freezing rain that will cut into that.  There is a smidge of freezing rain mixing in now, so wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain become more dominant than sleet for awhile at some point.  

Did you move to N Central IN.? Sounds like our weekly weather lately lol.  At least it's going to be  a normal WAA to snow progression for ya not bass ackwards like its been around here.  You need to start the last thread of the winter damn it.  :pimp:

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28 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

It wasn't aggressive enough with the warm layer at 850mb.  The latest run has finally caught on though, and now keeps us all sleet and freezing rain until after midnight.  Using a 3:1 ratio for sleet, it's looking like 1-1.5" of sleet, but if some of that is freezing rain that will cut into that.  There is a smidge of freezing rain mixing in now, so wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain become more dominant than sleet for awhile at some point.  

At least the sleet provides traction for drivers. But I am surprised after all the juicy eastern IA snowfall maps I saw today 

i called my job today and I was lucky the general manager gave me the night off because I have rear wheel drive and would get stranded with the amount of snow we are getting on the roads now 

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44 minutes ago, King James said:


Layer of ice on my Weber grill here in Eastern IKK county

Surprised there isn't an advisory there.  Curious to see how long you hang on to ice, and it will help to give me a better idea of when the changeover is coming lol

Some models don't flip me to plain rain until the dry slot is basically on the doorstep.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Surprised there isn't an advisory there.  Curious to see how long you hang on to ice, and it will help to give me a better idea of when the changeover is coming lol

Yeah that part seems to be a bit of a miss on LOT's part. I'm in the NE part of the county and many walking surfaces are already glazed over.

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Mix in Iowa City now. WAA was undermodeled essentially across the board with the worst offenders being the RGEM, GFS and RAP. This will cut into my total, perhaps significantly.

Sleet or freezing rain?  Judging by how fast the rain/sleet line is moving, we're going to see some sleet.  Hopefully no freezing rain.

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