yoda Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 00z UKMET snow map through 144 for those who care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 00z UKMET snow map through 144 for those who care Nobody cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro looks too warm/terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro with a slightly weaker high than the gfs....still, the CAD seems way underdone to me. Looking at 850's you can barely see an indication of a CAD even with a nice high in a prime spot (h120). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro with a slightly weaker high than the gfs....still, the CAD seems way underdone to me. Looking at 850's you can barely see an indication of a CAD even with a nice high in a prime spot (h120).Euro high is way too weak. Need a 1040 with a cutter. 1032 is too pedestrian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Euro with a slightly weaker high than the gfs....still, the CAD seems way underdone to me. Looking at 850's you can barely see an indication of a CAD even with a nice high in a prime spot (h120). Euro high is way too weak. Need a 1040 with a cutter. 1032 is too pedestrian yea...seeing a sub 1035 is disappointing. Certainly was hoping for a trend the other direction. But, at the same timestamp the gfs with a 5mb stronger high gives us this...and is usually underdone. Euro at the same time has 850 0c line running thru your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro looks more interesting Friday now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro looks amazing after Tuesdays mess. Mecs with another hecs on heal Would be epic run with a few better trends Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 The Euro at 126 makes absolutely zero sense. There is no way you could possibly have two systems like that over the MA and Midwest with that little spacing. Chances are one of them isn’t there. Most likely the overrunning is overdone across the MA. The shortwave is basically moving into upper level ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Tonight’s euro is drool worthy in the 7-14 day range. My god. Borderline 2 HECS on that run Still plenty of time for the two possible events next week. Mon - tues and then thurs - fri. I think we can eek out a warning level thump mon/tues if the GFS UKMET FV3 h5 setups are to be believed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Seems like EURO is having problems along with the other models based on some of the comments I've read. Seems to me, the king will have things figured out by late tomorrow for the first storm. 6z GFS looks interesting next week especially next weekend. Pretty vigorous storm next weekend perhaps. Either way, fun tracking times are here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6z GFS also has the Friday storm and it looks real nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: 6z GFS also has the Friday storm and it looks real nice. I think that goes in the other thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 5 hours ago, yoda said: 00z UKMET snow map through 144 for those who care Since this model consistently ranks high on performance why does it feel like it is always off base? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Since this model consistently ranks high on performance why does it feel like it is always off base? Because it’s not called the Euro? Smirk face emoji. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think that goes in the other thread? I don’t care what thread it goes in so long as it ends up on my lawn! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Since this model consistently ranks high on performance why does it feel like it is always off base? It has a tendency to over amp systems which causes wild swings in the one feature we care about most. It’s h5 scores are good though! Lol i also think it’s percep bias. We don’t see it as often and it’s supposedly “good” so when it busts we notice more. The euro had a similar look just 24 hours ago. The fv3 had a bomb. The gfs went from a cutter to a snowstorm to a cutter to something in between in the last 36 hours. The gem...is the gem. So is it really any worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: This is where our region and yours roots for different thing. You like the cmc better because it's more miller b. I like the gfs version because it's a much easier way to get a warning level event. We've had plenty here. Screw rooting for a transfer when the primary dies overhead and the secondary does the old skipdeedoodah. We've had plenty of those too. Normally I would agree...but in this case we would get the waa thump anyways and the precip from the primary is rain. Our only hope to end with snow otg is a miller b progression. Thump to dry slot and hold some low level cold air in. I know you don’t care about that but i do. It looks like a cold period coming up and it’s not too late for us to get a prolonged period of snow otg. Especially up here, I’ve had 7+ day periods with snow in late feb or March in 2007, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018. Would be nice to lay down some glacier at the front of the cold period that’s coming. And I definitely think it’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6z FV3 has a nice and if I may more sensible look for early next week than yesterday's run. Nice CAD look preceded by a thump of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looking at the EPS snowfall means and we see an expansion southward of the 2" line from the 12z where from the PA line down to just north of DC are now in it. We are also seeing the amounts lessen from the PA line north. Now before some start, 'We don't give a %#$*& about what happens to our north' (you know who you are. ) there is a reason I bring this up. Now I am going to throw up the 12z and 00z maps for comparison. Though some may look at the general mslp maps comparing the 12Z run vs the overnight run and think they look very similar in their configuration so hence there was really no change I would somewhat strongly disagree. What we have seen is a somewhat significant weakening of the primary, of roughly 8 mbs on the means, that drives to our north into the lakes on the latest run. And this weakening is being seen within the individual members as well. This weakening of the feature is dampening the SW overrunning flow through our region hence CAD is allowed to hold on longer to the south so we see the bump up in snowfall totals. This less aggressive flow is also impacting the snowfall to the north as the push of moisture northward is dampened as well. 12z 00z Now there are some other things I would like you to take note of with that low in the lakes region. Besides the weakening we also see a shift westward of the track of that primary. Not only that but if you glance at the individual members you see that the clustering has degraded somewhat. On a side note this looser clustering of lows may contribute a little to the weaker mslp solution on the means but nowhere near to the extent we are seeing. Now what does the above tell me? That instead of the EPS honing in on a solution with that feature that in fact it is still trying to decide what to do with it. Now this may very well be the solution we end up with. A weaker low running into the Lakes with a minor over running event for our region. Then again maybe not. So let's play detective a little and follow some of the clues that the EPS may be throwing at us. First off clue #1, the adjustment west of the mslp track. Why are we seeing that? What we are in fact seeing is that with the weakening of this primary on more members that they are scattering and moving away from the clustering. What this is doing is leaving only the stronger members in the clustering. Stronger lows have a tendency to track more to the north and west vs weaker members hence the shift west. So though we do see a shift west on the means, looking at the individual members they actually moved away from that. So the question then becomes, where are these weaker members gravitating to. So clue #2. Notice that we are now seeing lows beginning to pop up and cluster west of the Aps around Kentucky and Tennessee. Also note that we are also seeing the lower pressures on the means now reaching much farther west down through that region. What that tells me is that with the weaker low pressure solutions on the latest run that the EPS may be favoring seeing low pressure develop in that region. Clue #3, look at the possible low through our region and/or off our coast. We are also seeing a weakening of that feature as well on the means. Now in this case it isn't so much because we are seeing weaker low solutions but more the case that we are seeing a divergence within the members some move to our west and some are now clustering farther to our north off of New York. So basically what we are seeing is the EPS is evolving with how it wants to handle through our region. Now when we piece all these clues together what could it possibly mean? One is that the EPS may now be seeing the possibility of a much weaker primary low tracking farther east and up just west of the Appalachians. Two, the EPS may be moving towards a weaker low moving farther west with a secondary forming in the general Tennessee valley. The second I would favor at this time. Now as far as what the EPS possibly sees through our general region and off our coast? Really hard to say at this point. With the tighter clustering of lows to the north off of New York one would have to think it is possibly keying on a stronger first wave. After that, it gets really hard to say what happens because it is pretty much dependent on how it handles the initial primary. eta: Forgot to mention, the tendency to move towards low pressure in the Tennessee Valley bodes well for our chances if that is what we in fact see. Until the EPS settles on a solution there all options are on the table for our region. Anywhere from Boom to Bust. General comment: As I have mentioned numerous times as well as others. The setup is very fluid with many variables in play that will affect the outcome. And looking over the various models they continue to have a difficult time handling things. So let it play out into the weekend and see where we stand at that point before you start having melt downs or claiming victory. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 6z FV3 has a nice and if I may more sensible look for early next week than yesterday's run. Nice CAD look preceded by a thump of snow. meh...who likes sensible. We prefer silly. Unfortunately neither is likely. for us I think quick snow to frozen slop to deluge. the fly in the ointment is the CAD which often holds longer as you know but I don't like the strength or position of the High. but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It has a tendency to over amp systems which causes wild swings in the one feature we care about most. It’s h5 scores are good though! Lol i also think it’s percep bias. We don’t see it as often and it’s supposedly “good” so when it busts we notice more. The euro had a similar look just 24 hours ago. The fv3 had a bomb. The gfs went from a cutter to a snowstorm to a cutter to something in between in the last 36 hours. The gem...is the gem. So is it really any worse? It has had a tough winter this year beyond 60-72. It has rarely agreed with the Euro in the 60-108 range (which is rare as they tend to spit out similar ideas in general) and the Euro has won almost every one of those wars so far when they’ve differed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 So we are rooting for more separation now and the primary to be farther West? Just 2 days ago we were cheering on tighter spacing between primary and redevelopment weren't we? Eta: nevermind answered my own question....tighter spacing was going for OBX redevelopment and since that is off the table we are pulling for more separation with stronger CAD reflection....makes sense. Note to self....coffee before posting is a must. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So we are rooting for more separation now and the primary to be stronger and farther West? Just 2 days ago we were cheering on tighter spacing between primary and redevelopment weren't we? As I mentioned yesterday, until there is a semblance of continuity between the models and their run over runs we really won't know what to root for. Something might be good for one particular setup and yet be bad for another. And this doesn't even consider that different solutions/setups mean different results for different sections of our region (north vs. south vs. cities vs eastern shore vs etc...) About the only thing I am rooting for is that we see strong high pressures over top and a continuation of the general theme of a weakness off the coast. Maybe even throw in a move towards seeing lower pressures in the Tennessee Valley as well though I am not 100% certain on that. So who knows, lets see what we have come Sat or even Sun and work off of that. eta: who said OBX (or general region) redevelopment is off the table? I think it is still very much in play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t care what thread it goes in so long as it ends up on my lawn! Hes just mad cause it might finally snow, and he'll have to flick the debbie button off for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6Z EPS continues the trend of colder than 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: 6Z EPS continues the trend of colder than 0z. Do you have the snow mean for the area? Better than 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Do you have the snow mean for the area? Better than 00z? The SV snow mean maps are a little suspect...but I'll post them when they're out. Was just looking at the MSLP/850 line maps. The mean 850 line is a touch further south than 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So we are rooting for more separation now and the primary to be farther West? Just 2 days ago we were cheering on tighter spacing between primary and redevelopment weren't we? Eta: nevermind answered my own question....tighter spacing was going for OBX redevelopment and since that is off the table we are pulling for more separation with stronger CAD reflection....makes sense. Note to self....coffee before posting is a must. Bingo. since thats off the table further west keeps us cold and doesnt wreck the lower/mid levels. This has worked for us before, and is the likely path to victory for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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