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WxUSAF

February 10-12, 2019 Storm

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25 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Any support within the GEFS? 

Not that i can see. Through d8 there isn't a single member that has mostly snow. Plenty of good solutions but nothing remotely close to the cold/deep snow solution the fv3 has. 

I'm not saying there is no chance for a sweet closed low with a good track but there needs to be a lot more support for the idea than a single run of the fv3.

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@Bob Chill

From an individual GEFS members standpoint what kind of an event are they pointing too? Fv3 is on a island by itself and has a 0% chance of verifying ,but do most give us a modest snow event prior to raining on us? TT doesn't give much detail for individual members.

Thank you in advance. Much appreciated.

 

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FV3 should be heavily weighted and favored immensely in this situation.

Weenie handbook page 411: "Newest beta updated models should be used more than any other guidance because they are new and improved with all the latest technology and stuff"

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7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

@Bob Chill

From an individual GEFS members standpoint what kind of an event are they pointing too? Fv3 is on a island by itself and has a 0% chance of verifying ,but do most give us a modest snow event prior to raining on us? TT doesn't give much detail for individual members.

Thank you in advance. Much appreciated.

 

Through d6 it's pretty much equally divided with not much at all, decent but not great, and warning level. Overall a moderate event or larger is favored 2:1 over nuisance or non-event.

The whole thing has a lot of moving parts with timing and outcomes spread pretty wide. By Friday we should hopefully see some sort of consensus emerge

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As early as  hour 96 already substantial differences out west with our ball of energy. Gfs keeps a solid 1 peace and Fv3 splits in 2 ejecting a piece that becomes the Hecs :D. Man..I'll dream that all other guidance trends to the new and improved Gfs at 0z.

gfs_z500a_namer_17.png

Fv3 

fv3p_z500a_namer_17.png

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's over probably as much as your days of more than 5 posts

Look all I’m saying is he’s saying there’s a 0% chance of verifying that’s just wrong info that’s all. Also the gfs FV3 nailed November 15th snowstorm while the gfs initialized rain during the snowstorm 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Through d6 it's pretty much equally divided with not much at all, decent but not great, and warning level. Overall a moderate event or larger is favored 2:1 over nuisance or non-event.

The whole thing has a lot of moving parts with timing and outcomes spread pretty wide. By Friday we should hopefully see some sort of consensus emerge

Friday still feels aggressive to me for a Monday-Tuesday event 

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Friday still feels aggressive to me for a Monday-Tuesday event 

Not too early for some sort of consensus though. Like support for the same general progression. Not locked in or anything. If we are going to get snow it's likely to be a nailbiter into the short range. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Not too early for some sort of consensus though. Like support for the same general progression. Not locked in or anything. If we are going to get snow it's likely to be a nailbiter into the short range. 

Agree I can even see a run or two tomorrow where the models show partly sunny on Tuesday 

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

As early as  hour 96 already substantial differences out west with our ball of energy. Gfs keeps a solid 1 peace and Fv3 splits in 2 ejecting a piece that becomes the Hecs :D. Man..I'll dream that all other guidance trends to the new and improved Gfs at 0z.

Fv3 

That's a major -PNA though. 

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Not too early for some sort of consensus though. Like support for the same general progression. Not locked in or anything. If we are going to get snow it's likely to be a nailbiter into the short range. 


Mentioned that this morning that it’ll be this weekend where we’ll start pegging down the overall upper level progression. Moving pieces galore. It’s never easy to get a big storm in the MA. If the FV3 run is right, I’ll use it to forecast for every storm the rest of the year exclusively.


.
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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not too early for some sort of consensus though. Like support for the same general progression. Not locked in or anything. If we are going to get snow it's likely to be a nailbiter into the short range. 

Love the nail biter.  Gives me a reason to wake up in the morning.  But I have learned not to stay awake for the overnight runs.. they are a turd

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We’ve been getting great 500 passes all fall and early winter, maybe it’s about time one lines up with some cold. #FV3

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14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


Mentioned that this morning that it’ll be this weekend where we’ll start pegging down the overall upper level progression. Moving pieces galore. It’s never easy to get a big storm in the MA. If the FV3 run is right, I’ll use it to forecast for every storm the rest of the year exclusively.


.

 

We really need an opposite of Doctor No which seems to always take a perfect scenario and drive daggers into weenie hearts. It would be nice to have a model especially a US model that could do the opposite and take a hopeless situation and turn it into a positive solution where other guidance slowly caved to it.

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14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


Mentioned that this morning that it’ll be this weekend where we’ll start pegging down the overall upper level progression. Moving pieces galore. It’s never easy to get a big storm in the MA. If the FV3 run is right, I’ll use it to forecast for every storm the rest of the year exclusively.


.

 

We all know it probably isn’t but it has had 5 straight runs with a coastal now. Will be interesting to see if it flips tonight. 

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19 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Mentioned that this morning that it’ll be this weekend where we’ll start pegging down the overall upper level progression. Moving pieces galore. It’s never easy to get a big storm in the MA. If the FV3 run is right, I’ll use it to forecast for every storm the rest of the year exclusively.

 

saved for posterity

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27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

As early as  hour 96 already substantial differences out west with our ball of energy. Gfs keeps a solid 1 peace and Fv3 splits in 2 ejecting a piece that becomes the Hecs :D. Man..I'll dream that all other guidance trends to the new and improved Gfs at 0z.

 

 

 

You made me look!  Good catch....also note that as the run progresses the GFS puts another ULL just west/over Hudson Bay.  FV3 has ridging and the system can continue to dig under us.  Not out of the question the GFS is wrong with the placement of that feature...or even it's existence at all.  Same goes for the FV3 tho...who knows? Ha!  

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35 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Love the nail biter.  Gives me a reason to wake up in the morning.  But I have learned not to stay awake for the overnight runs.. they are a turd

Exactly!  Almost every storm around here is a nail biter (except 2016, of course).  I look forward to checking on overnight progress and reading Showmesnow’s analysis every morning! 

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We all know it probably isn’t but it has had 5 straight runs with a coastal now. Will be interesting to see if it flips tonight. 


Coastal isn’t out of the cards for sure, but that H5 progression was straight of the KU books. Until we see models flip to something like that, FV3 might be off its rocker. Fun to look at though. One can only hope.


.

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saved for posterity


I’m sure people in here would love to see it happen to me just to get that to come to fruition. Overall, it’s different on multiple pieces compared to other guidance. Need to see more trends toward it and for it to hold on to a similar evolution. Something tells me our progression answers are still a few days away.


.
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14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

ICON has light snow with Wave 1 especially for north of DC.  

ICON is a complete disaster in relation to H5 vs FV3. Not even close. Wants to phase even farther West.

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON is a complete disaster in relation to H5 vs FV3. Not even close. Wants to phase even farther West.

I hear you but is it worth comparing H5 to FV3...that’s such an extreme scenario that is unlikely to happen anyways.

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