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February 10-12, 2019 Storm


WxUSAF
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I know it has been modeled for a few days but that second surge of CAD is a bit of a wildcard, imo.  Models have a tough enough time predicting a CAD situation...now they have to predict 2 in a 24 hr period.  I think this alone keeps the door open for upside.  Looks to occur right as the second wave approaches...Doesnt hold it's ground but certainly long enough for a good thump if rates come in heavy.  

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup like that!

I was feeling pretty decent about prospects of seeing an inch or so of snow/sleet until the 12z Euro came out. Just brutal lol.

Yeah. It is. Quite the cutoff. Amazing what 10-20 miles might do for some with this storm...A shift north or south of the boundary of just a few miles could have some crazy implications for members of this sub. 

Honestly, I've never felt like this was going to be a good one for south and east of baltimore from the very beginning. So the fact that we have a chance at getting some snow tonight and some sleet/zr tomorrow is kind of a bonus imo. I'm glad the northern crew might get a good thump. I hope they do. 

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Yeah. It is. Quite the cutoff. Amazing what 10-20 miles north might do for some with this storm...

Honestly, with this storm, I've never felt like this was going to be a good one for south of baltimore from the very beginning. So the fact that we have a chance at getting some snow tonight and some sleet/zr tomorrow is kind of a bonus imo. I'm glad the northern crew might get a good thump. I hope they do. 

Yeah it is what it is. I'll root for the northern tier crew. Also hope the N Baltimore city folks cash in. They have missed out a lot too.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Didn't see the Hderps posted 

 

Screenshot_20190210-144105_Chrome_crop_506x337.jpg

Seems like NMD from fdk county eastward has evolved as models are figuring out that second surge of CAD.  It has had a tendency to hold on longer as you get toward NEMD the last few runs.

Temp spiked to 36 a while ago but has dropped to 34 as clouds have thickened....

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Didn't see the Hderps posted 

 

Screenshot_20190210-144105_Chrome_crop_506x337.jpg

If I was totally desperate I could always drive 10 miles lol.

Will be interesting to see if the gradient really is as tight as some guidance is suggesting. The Euro is probably the most brutal. I wish I could say I don't believe it is right. :yikes:

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