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February 10-12, 2019 Storm


WxUSAF
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50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hate to be selfish on this one but my Son just had surgery a few days ago. He is doing fine, but I have to get him to Hopkins Tuesday morning for his post op and to change his surgical bandages. I can deal with snow no problem. Freezing rain is a problem. So I’m not rooting for a ton of freezing rain here. Snow or rain please. 

Best wishes for your son.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’m already at 36.  :( I’ll get my galloshes ready. 

I'm not delusional my 32 and rain is no different than your 36 and rain. I still think it's fun to anticipate though...stuff happens sometimes. I won't be disappointed if its rainy but I'll be happy if it's a good bit frozen

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm not delusional my 32 and rain is no different than your 36 and rain. I still think it's fun to anticipate though...stuff happens sometimes. I won't be disappointed if its rainy but I'll be happy if it's a good bit frozen

Yeah I actually think west of DC will be in a nice little surprise...these are the types of events that can catch people off guard especially if CAD overperforms like we usually do.

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54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks for the well wishes all. He is doing well now and should be fine.  Just don’t want to have to drive him to the hospital on a sheet of ice and really don’t want to have to try to reschedule. Already took the day off work and all plus he needs the medical attention. 

Phin is alright. His last post was actually funny I thought. 

1.) I’m very happy to hear your son is doing better. 

2.) I read your posts & many other good posters in here every day.  Thank you for your daily contributions to this forum!

3.) I am from the Harrisburg, PA area & I never post in here. I enjoy the good read each day, but I realize that I should just do my posting in my home Central PA forum.

4.) @Ruin please let these good folks alone & come post in the Central PA forum. We could actually use more posters up here if you want to contribute.

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Latest RAP and HRRR are ugly. I dont see a single flake on either of them. The early slug of precip goes north of the Shenandoah Valley. Time to break out a fork and stick this one.

I don't have much hope for this event in my location besides brief frozen before the rain however, I wouldn't even look at the HRRR in this situation, it is going to push the boundary layer warming way too aggressively. It did it with the last event and will torch things too easily imo.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Why is PA trolling us this year???  And I love the pa sub...was a regular contributor there years ago and still pop in time to time but a few a$$clowns are making them look bad. 

Hey hey hey - that guy has never posted in our region appropriate sub so don’t bunch him with us! We are a great bunch but really having a rough winter like everyone else.

I think Baltimore north has a decent shot at frozen issues Tuesday morning. Anyone south unfortunately - doesn’t look promising.  

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3 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

I don't have much hope for this event in my location besides brief frozen before the rain however, I wouldn't even look at the HRRR in this situation, it is going to push the boundary layer warming way too aggressively. It did it with the last event and will torch things too easily imo.

Agreed it is bad with temps. But it usually does pretty good with precip positioning and that is what kills my chances. The first slug of moisture goes north of my area.

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17 minutes ago, 87storms said:

agreed, and at this point we're just missing out on incredible snow chances.  one good storm with all the rain we've had in the past few months shows that we haven't been lacking in the pattern with regards to precip; we've been lacking with cold air that just never could get locked in long enough.  on the bright side, the pattern looks to continue, so there could still be some chances in the next few weeks to get a wall to wall snowstorm.  one more storm would make this a solid winter, albeit an underperformer when you add in all the precip we wasted.

Seems like some statistical regression going on. We've hit all legit chances except for one (southern storm). That's far from normal here. This one is a legit chance but will prob end up a near miss. At least for our yards. I've barely posted about this event because i figured my yard would struggle days ago. My hunch appears correct but close enough to nowcast later. 

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Forecast high 39 currently 30 dropped from 32 after the sun went behind clouds. But ive been through this many times went the temps bust low during the day the clouds over night steady the temps or rise them over night. I understand why the temps stay steady with a blanket. but sometimes when the temps bump up so many degrees over night with no heat source just puzzling :P tho i know south winds bring warmth. but normally this is hot the low busted temps normally get canceled out

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35 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This ukmet map makes 0 sense with the Meteogram.  It must be counting sleet as snow.  

14A80662-41E8-49A7-8797-F24F08C103A2.png

BA68DB00-7CC9-4A1E-BB08-796A31D47A66.png

 

28 minutes ago, Yeoman said:


What a terrible model.

That snow map does make sense. The problem isn’t the ukmet it’s the flawed algorithm on that map we’ve been looking at all winter!  Smh 

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