BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I’m thinking for this type of system, the positive snow depth change maps may be more accurate on accumulations than the 10:1 clown maps. That said, clearly the NAM is still a great run for Baltimore-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12k NAM has 1.00"+ QPF here through hr 57. All frozen. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I’m thinking for this type of system, the positive snow depth change maps may be more accurate on accumulations than the 10:1 clown maps. That said, clearly the NAM is still a great run for Baltimore-north Yeah, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 hours ago, WesternFringe said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3k is a hit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Looks like the model is showing reinforcing cold air draining in Monday evening as discussed by Sterling NWS in their late afternoon discussion. If that verifies we are talking surface temps near freezing through Tuesday am and some potentially serious ice/ snow for both Monday rush hours and Tuesday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I'm fully entering IMBY mode but 3k NAM has .25" of FRZA down in Charlottesville too... temps are iffy but maybe. Need a victory after that Duke loss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I'm fully entering IMBY mode but 3k NAM has .25" of FRZA down in Charlottesville too... temps are iffy but maybe. Need a victory after that Duke loss. imo...temps will be very dependent on precip rates monday. If precip stays overhead temps will have a hard time reaching the mid-thirties. Same thing with Sunday night. If precip comes in heavy, with dews in the teens, temps will mostly likely drop into the upper 20's. If we can get that it would make Monday's mid-thirties hard to come by... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm fully entering IMBY mode but 3k NAM has .25" of FRZA down in Charlottesville too... temps are iffy but maybe. Need a victory after that Duke loss. Dude. UVA played a very good game. Duke is super talented and made everything they jacked up from long range. And we were still in it. Big test on Monday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 12k NAM has 1.00"+ QPF here through hr 57. All frozen. Nam looks Great. Warning criteria snow and ice. 24 hours of snow then 15 hours of ice on top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Using ferrier rime correction on 3K. Looks like 2-3” is accurate for Baltimore-PA...I’d take that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 hours ago, DDweatherman said: In Towson right now, what’s it show for first wave? I went to the JMU - Towson game today. My Step-nephew plays for JMU. The arena is really nice... Obligatory weather content - I'm pretty bullish on this event. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I went to the JMU - Towson game today. My Step-nephew plays for JMU. The arena is really nice... Obligatory weather content - I'm pretty bullish on this event. Really? N even C MD perhaps. Maybe I am being too pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Who cares about Harrisburg. its where I live so I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 RGEM starts out as snow and changes to rain south of DC... not sure I agree with that because of the HP position... and that it strengthens it from 1036mb to 1041mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Icon is crap for snow/ice in the area but it does keep the surface below freezing north and west of Baltimore through 18z Tuesday. Nam gets the high for Baltimore on Tuesday to 36. Icon 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ruin said: its where I live so I do We don’t take kindly to strangers in these here parts. Especially those with better snow climo. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Icon is crap for snow/ice in the area but it does keep the surface below freezing north and west of Baltimore through 18z Tuesday. Nam gets the high for Baltimore on Tuesday to 36. Icon 38. I base all my expectations on the ICON and the NAVGEM (sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Kuchera map for the NAM shows a legit snowstorm near the M/D line. Nice hit for psuhoffman, mappy, and yes, even the grumpy Mdecoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Kuchera map for the NAM shows a legit snowstorm near the M/D line. Nice hit for psuhoffman and mappy. That looks right to me. I get 0.0 inches. Finally a snow map that reflects an accurate outcome! Sign me up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 hours ago, Amped said: 18z GFS looks more like the CMC/Euro at 500MB than 12z did. Looks even more like them again. GFS always late to the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That looks right to me. I get 0.0 inches. Finally a snow map that reflects an accurate outcome! Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That looks right to me. I get 0.0 inches. Finally a snow map that reflects an accurate outcome! Sign me up. You never know. It could keep trending colder as models finally see the CAD for what it is. I've seen it happen many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: Sorry bro. Maybe we will pull of the miracle play. CAD is not deep enough as I see it. It has to stop somewhere and in this example it’s N and W MD. Haven’t seen anything yet that makes me think our part of NOVA is in the game. I could be wrong. Usually am but I have seen this movie before and know how it ends. It will be close however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, Fozz said: What are your thoughts on the latest NAM? (you can answer in the other thread but it looks like a legit hit up your way) I am torn on this. I was never on board because I just felt given the pattern the low to the west was likely to end up the dominant one and it would cut. So the "idea" 3-4 days ago of a wave getting under us was not likely. But the guidance has made that adjustment and now is trending colder with the CAD anyways. I still have a bad feeling I end up with bare grass when this is over...but the NAM is intriguing. Never gets my area above 33-34 degrees and so that would pretty much preserve the snow/sleet that falls. At those temps it can survive the rain and then freeze up into a glacier. Of course with another cutter right behind it...not sure why I even care. lol Back when it looked like it might get cold and stay cold behind this wave I think I got this silly idea in my head...and now I am irrationally holding on to it. As for whether the colder trend is correct... I have no idea. I would be lying if I said I had a gut feeling one way or another. The guidance is trending that way, but the pattern says not likely. There are not many examples of more than a nuisance snow with this kind of overall pattern. But exceptions happen. I think north of Baltimore will have a window until around 0z Monday and possibly until 3-6z towards PA to get snow and it will depend on banding and how much and how heavy the precip is during that time. We will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I'd say this could be considered an official NAMming...probably mostly mix/sleet/ice but would still be fun. ANYTHING other than plain rain! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am torn on this. I was never on board because I just felt given the pattern the low to the west was likely to end up the dominant one and it would cut. So the "idea" 3-4 days ago of a wave getting under us was not likely. But the guidance has made that adjustment and now is trending colder with the CAD anyways. I still have a bad feeling I end up with bare grass when this is over...but the NAM is intriguing. Never gets my area above 33-34 degrees and so that would pretty much preserve the snow/sleet that falls. At those temps it can survive the rain and then freeze up into a glacier. Of course with another cutter right behind it...not sure why I even care. lol Back when it looked like it might get cold and stay cold behind this wave I think I got this silly idea in my head...and now I am irrationally holding on to it. As for whether the colder trend is correct... I have no idea. I would be lying if I said I had a gut feeling one way or another. The guidance is trending that way, but the pattern says not likely. There are not many examples of more than a nuisance snow with this kind of overall pattern. But exceptions happen. I think north of Baltimore will have a window until around 0z Monday and possibly until 3-6z towards PA to get snow and it will depend on banding and how much and how heavy the precip is during that time. We will see. I remember an event back in February 2008 that trended colder and became a legit ice storm around here even though it was initially supposed to just be a wintry mix to rain. I was skiing that day (either in Whitetail or Liberty... don't remember) and they picked up 4-5" of snow before the changeover. But once the bus arrived at Ridgely and I got back into my car, everything was iced up. I don't know how similar this setup is, but I vaguely recall that storm being a cutter or inland runner. It was a really nice surprise especially since the winter otherwise sucked due to the nasty Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Fozz said: I remember an event back in February 2008 that trended colder and became a legit ice storm around here even though it was initially supposed to just be a wintry mix to rain. I was skiing that day (either in Whitetail or Liberty... don't remember) and they picked up 4-5" of snow before the changeover. But once the bus arrived at Ridgely and I got back into my car, everything was iced up. I don't know how similar this setup is, but I vaguely recall that storm being a cutter or inland runner. It was a really nice surprise especially since the winter otherwise sucked due to the nasty Nina. Yeah. That was a legit nasty event even for DC proper. Roads weren’t properly treated and people were skidding all over the place on bridges and overpasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: I'd say this could be considered an official NAMming...probably mostly mix/sleet/ice but would still be fun. ANYTHING other than plain rain! While the snowfall output is fun to laugh at it does show how the CAD could be significant enough to at least get decent frozen as far South as Fredericksburg. And how our MD friends could get a significant snow/sleet/ice event 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The 3k NAM is all wintry mix for areas just north of DC and has some cooling of the surface and midlevels in between wave 1 and wave 2 with sleet soundings shifting back to snow soundings for a time before the big push of warm air rolls in. Going to be a fine line between icy mess and 33 and rain for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now