February 10-12, 2019 Storm

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Welp, the euro is going to create more questions than provide clarity. Pretty big change in how the low develops to our west. Better run in some ways and a lot worse in others. 

its high seems much weaker than the other models...so we dont last snow as long. It also  has monday snow which nobody else has lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

With the position of the low and the high to the ne I don’t see how the Euro can be too bad. I would have thought much better. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Welp, the euro is going to create more questions than provide clarity. Pretty big change in how the low develops to our west. Better run in some ways and a lot worse in others. 

in terms of winter weather--it improved

[Ji]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

With the position of the low and the high tonthe ne I don’t see how the Euro can be too bad. I would have thought much better. 

its handling CAD like i thought the GFS would handle it haha

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

its high seems much weaker than the other models...so we dont last snow as long. It also  has monday snow which nobody else has lol

High came in notably stronger compared to 0z but the progression changed... A LOT. Didn't have a good slug of WAA in front of the low developing to the west. If it had it would have been a pretty good run. 120 hours away so we can expect many more changes with how the low develops and precip shield expands. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

its high seems much weaker than the other models...so we dont last snow as long. It also  has monday snow which nobody else has lol

We lost the JMA

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

High came in notably stronger compared to 0z but the progression changed... A LOT. Didn't have a good slug of WAA in front of the low developing to the west. If it had it would have been a pretty good run. 120 hours away so we can expect many more changes with how the low develops and precip shield expands. 

I liked the structural changes on the euro...it sucked wrt ground truth because it had a weird precip representation with dry slots all over the place and we got stuck under one.  But the representation and evolution is closer to what can give us a good snow than last night or yesterday was.  

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I liked the structural changes on the euro...it sucked wrt ground truth because it had a weird precip representation with dry slots all over the place and we got stuck under one.  But the representation and evolution is closer to what can give us a good snow than last night or yesterday was.  

this was the good run from 2 days ago

yesterdays terrible run

 

 

 

todays(looks more like 2 days ago but high not positioned as well)

[showmethesnow]

The Euro pretty much followed in the footsteps of the changes seen and hinted at on the overnight EPS. We saw a much weaker primary, with a track adjusted southeastward (at least initially), indications of a possible transference or track into Tenn/Kentucky of that primary and then the beginnings of coastal development between OBX and the mouth of the bay.

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I liked the structural changes on the euro...it sucked wrt ground truth because it had a weird precip representation with dry slots all over the place and we got stuck under one.  But the representation and evolution is closer to what can give us a good snow than last night or yesterday was.  

I thought the upper levels and mids were pretty good as well. Considering we're still seeing substantial shifts with low placement/strength/progression I'm not going to get hung up on a damn thing 5 days out. The only thing missing on this euro run was a good slug of WAA into the CAD dome. We have a ton of time for that piece to come into better focus. I think seeing the GFS, FV3, CMC, Ukie, and the Euro improving in the mids is a great sign. For whatever reason we've have good breaks in the mid range this year. My money is on that happening again. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I thought the upper levels and mids were pretty good as well. Considering we're still seeing substantial shifts with low placement/strength/progression I'm not going to get hung up on a damn thing 5 days out. The only thing missing on this euro run was a good slug of WAA into the CAD dome. We have a ton of time for that piece to come into better focus. I think seeing the GFS, FV3, CMC, Ukie, and the Euro improving in the mids is a great sign. For whatever reason we've have good breaks in the mid range this year. My money is on that happening again. 

this is just an appetizer anyway for the Feb 2010 period we are going in

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

this is just an appetizer anyway for the Feb 2010 period we are going in

I think the ensembles have done very well for the last 2 weeks. We knew more than 10 days in advance that this week's warmth was coming. We talked about the 7th as being the possible end of the shutout period pretty much 2 weeks ago. That was a little too fast but only 2 days. That's damn good for the ensembles getting the timing mostly right from waaaay out in time. Over the last 10 days we've been talking about a possible CAD event because 50/50s were showing up waaaay in advance. Ensembles look to get that piece right too. 

Now we're seeing some really good stuff in the d10-15 range. Has the d10-15 range been good overall this year? heh... nope. Has it been good recently? Yes, I think it has and because of that I do think next week is only the kickoff to a potentially extended period with winter wx chances. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the ensembles have done very well for the last 2 weeks. We knew more than 10 days in advance that this week's warmth was coming. We talked about the 7th as being the possible end of the shutout period pretty much 2 weeks ago. That was a little too fast but only 2 days. That's damn good for the ensembles getting the timing mostly right from waaaay out in time. Over the last 10 days we've been talking about a possible CAD event because 50/50s were showing up waaaay in advance. Ensembles look to get that piece right too. 

Now we're seeing some really good stuff in the d10-15 range. Has the d10-15 range been good overall this year? heh... nope. Has it been good recently? Yes, I think it has and because of that I do think next week is only the kickoff to a potentially extended period with winter wx chances. 

Hooah! let's get this thing rolling

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the ensembles have done very well for the last 2 weeks. We knew more than 10 days in advance that this week's warmth was coming. We talked about the 7th as being the possible end of the shutout period pretty much 2 weeks ago. That was a little too fast but only 2 days. That's damn good for the ensembles getting the timing mostly right from waaaay out in time. Over the last 10 days we've been talking about a possible CAD event because 50/50s were showing up waaaay in advance. Ensembles look to get that piece right too. 

Now we're seeing some really good stuff in the d10-15 range. Has the d10-15 range been good overall this year? heh... nope. Has it been good recently? Yes, I think it has and because of that I do think next week is only the kickoff to a potentially extended period with winter wx chances. 

Too late, Ji just cancelled next weekend

[frd]

 

I really do hope we get a -NAO amongst other things. And, show that ground hog a thing or two. 

 

 

[frd]

The JMA anyone ?

This fits the cold and snowy late Feb and early March period. 

Funny, I look at this and its like dejavu .

 

 

 

[Wonderdog]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

The JMA anyone ?

This fits the cold and snowy late Feb and early March period. 

Funny, I look at this and its like dejavu .

 

 

 

Where have we heard that before?

[NorthArlington101]

12z EPS was a solid improvement, especially for the Western crew.

[Chris78]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EPS was a solid improvement, especially for the Western crew.

Oh please do share....lol

[LP08]

EPS upped snowfall through 0z Wednesday for the area.  2" line runs through northern Stafford county.  It was north of DC at 0z

[Scraff]

41 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is just an appetizer anyway for the Feb 2010 period we are going in

Are you JI or JB? 

[NorthArlington101]

Closer zoom. EPS has never really been on board so this is a notable bump.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, LP08 said:

EPS upped snowfall through 0z Wednesday for the area.  2" line runs through northern Stafford county.  It was north of DC at 0z

Half inch increase for S MD/N Va and north. 

[showmethesnow]

Actually seeing some fairly more robust solutions showing on some of the members compared to previous runs.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukie also coming in  flatter and weaker overall . It takes the primary due east from hr 96 to 120 with hardly any north trajectory and it hints at coastal redevelopment.  It should be a decent hit me thinks.  The high is weaker then other guidance but with that track and weaker primary should be good bit of  frozen 

 

See how the isobar line connected with the high runs thru western md. Before decoupling. That’s a snow marker for DC 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually seeing some fairly more robust solutions showing on some of the members compared to previous runs.

FV3 just snickered.  

[frd]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually seeing some fairly more robust solutions showing on some of the members compared to previous runs.

showme, are the more robost solutions ones in which individual EPS members may be keying on a coastal, or is it simply more strongly WAA related, or can't you tell. Thanks 

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually seeing some fairly more robust solutions showing on some of the members compared to previous runs.

Can't spell bust without the RO

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, frd said:

showme, are the more robost solutions ones in which individual EPS members may be keying on a coastal, or is it simply more strongly WAA related, or can't you tell. Thanks 

Kind of multitasking here with some other things so I haven't had a chance to look into that yet. I will try to let you know in a little bit.

[LP08]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

showme, are the more robost solutions ones in which individual EPS members may be keying on a coastal, or is it simply more strongly WAA related, or can't you tell. Thanks 

I don't see many coastal influences for our area.  I don't have temps on my maps yet so its impossible for me know what each member looks like.  But there are definitely quite a few with more precip than the OP.