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February 10-12, 2019 Storm


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The GFS is pretty much following up on my morning post in regards to what I felt the EPS may be moving towards.

Compare the overnight GFS run to the latest one.

12zgfs.gif.5fc9b36ce31f548ed0f62012a76686be.gif

 

00zgfs.gif.54d8417a6e40fe52dc1bfe1b44593d5d.gif

 

Much weaker primary, an adjusted track to the east, and now we are seeing signs of a possible transfer into the Tennessee/Kentucky Valley. And the reason I mentioned earlier that I didn't think redevelopment around OBX was off the table is shown here. As you can see lower pressures are now showing in that region and if you move forward in time you see coastal development. One has to wonder if what we may be eventually looking at is a hop scotching of the low pressure into Tenn/Kentucky and then off the coast where the coastal becomes the dominate low in fairly rapid order. Also, not that I am a fan of the ICON, but it is also coming in weaker with an adjusted track to the East. As far as the CMC it is out to lunch. But we are talking only some of the model's op runs here so let's see what the others have to say and especially what the ensembles think before we maybe start buying into the possibility of this weaker more easterly primary solution.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think we can rely heavily on climo at this point. CAD is pressing in better than any previous attempt this year so I'm inclined to just go off memory of previous events. Starting to feel like you will get a warning level event before the flip. My yard will get the kitchen sink but still put up some numbers. DC might be in some trouble here but I'm always rooting for them. 

If other guidance can shift towards the GFS/FV3 idea of the secondary being more dominant I would be happy.  I will take less snow (say 4" vs 6") if we could get some low level cold air to hold due to a secondary and finish with some snow otg.  

There is a big difference between a thump snow to dryslot and 33 degree drizzle (miller b solution) and the same amount of snow to a 12 hour driving 48 degree rainstorm imo.  I know some don't care about that difference but I do.  I don't need snow to stick around forever...but at least long enough to enjoy it for a couple days.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

If other guidance can shift towards the GFS/FV3 idea of the secondary being more dominant I would be happy.  I will take less snow (say 4" vs 6") if we could get some low level cold air to hold due to a secondary and finish with some snow otg.  

There is a big difference between a thump snow to dryslot and 33 degree drizzle (miller b solution) and the same amount of snow to a 12 hour driving 48 degree rainstorm imo.  I know some don't care about that difference but I do.  I don't need snow to stick around forever...but at least long enough to enjoy it for a couple days.  

I’m with you PSU.  I would take 2” that sticks around over 4” followed by deluge. I’m sure others will disagree though.  

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The GFS is pretty much following up on my morning post in regards to what I felt the EPS may be moving towards.

Compare the overnight GFS run to the latest one.

12zgfs.gif.5fc9b36ce31f548ed0f62012a76686be.gif

 

00zgfs.gif.54d8417a6e40fe52dc1bfe1b44593d5d.gif

 

Much weaker primary, an adjusted track to the east, and now we are seeing signs of a possible transfer into the Tennessee/Kentucky Valley. And the reason I mentioned earlier that I didn't think redevelopment around OBX was off the table is shown here. As you can see lower pressures are now showing in that region and if you move forward in time you see coastal development. One has to wonder if what we may be eventually looking at is a hop scotching of the low pressure into Tenn/Kentucky and then off the coast where the coastal becomes the dominate low in fairly rapid order. Also, not that I am a fan of the ICON, but it is also coming in weaker with an adjusted track to the East. As far as the CMC it is out to lunch. But we are talking only some of the model's op runs here so let's see what the others have to say and especially what the ensembles think before we maybe start buying into the possibility of this weaker more easterly primary solution.

 

 

Day 5 Fronts and Pressures

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If other guidance can shift towards the GFS/FV3 idea of the secondary being more dominant I would be happy.  I will take less snow (say 4" vs 6") if we could get some low level cold air to hold due to a secondary and finish with some snow otg.  

There is a big difference between a thump snow to dryslot and 33 degree drizzle (miller b solution) and the same amount of snow to a 12 hour driving 48 degree rainstorm imo.  I know some don't care about that difference but I do.  I don't need snow to stick around forever...but at least long enough to enjoy it for a couple days.  

Don't disagree with any of the above. I think you and I have different orders of logic though. My head is still trying to decide if I get any snow at all. Once that piece is locked in I'll shift focus to progression/duration/temps/ptype etc. I usually don't get too invested there until all variations produce meaningful snowfall in my yard. Hopefully by sometime on Sat that piece is mostly locked up. 

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56 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS wind field is actually a really good signal for precip enhancement for our northern tier on that run. Easterly surface flow banked against the terrain should provide enhancement to the precip field across Carroll county to Frederick Co north of I-70. Temps will certainly struggle to climb with that setup across the area. Good run for frozen. 

I'm listening...

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18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs looks much improved.  Quicker ejection of energy  , stronger high , better cad .

First time I've seen no shutout solutions DC northward. Very good run. I think we're getting close to locking in a CAD thump and not seeing much support if any to keep the primary from staying south of us. Still time to shift but with gun to head I'd say the chances of that are pretty low. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

look at the little lobe rotating down around the 50/50 at just the right time to add a little extra confluence and suppress the flow a bit.  Maybe one of these works in our favor this time.  

 

Been keeping an eye over top in regards to such a feature for the last few days. This is why I wasn't as overly concerned as you and Ji were with a slower solution with the primary. But the models are having a rough time with the NS stream so that may be something we don't know if we have or not until close in time.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

First time I've seen no shutout solutions DC northward. Very good run. I think we're getting close to locking in a CAD thump and not seeing much support if any to keep the primary from staying south of us. Still time to shift but with gun to head I'd say the chances of that are pretty low. 

Yeah starting to look good for DC North crew....us DC South crew know the drill well. Hope for the best and prepare for rain or slop. A couple inches that isn't immediately washed away would be a nice stat padder

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Just now, wawarriors4 said:

Yeah starting to look good for DC North crew....us DC South crew know the drill well. Hope for the best and prepare for rain or slop. A couple inches that isn't immediately washed away would be a nice stat padder

We haven't seen a CAD setup like this this year. It's entirely possible that the mid level cold gets driven down to the VA/NC border before WAA precip attacks. GFS has more of a warm bias than cold in the midrange. The most important piece (depth of midlevel CAD) won't be figured out until the short range. Of course I agree that the northern/western zone are in the best spots because they always are with these types of events but looks like a juiced up system. A good event in your yard is still very much on the table.  

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

First time I've seen no shutout solutions DC northward. Very good run. I think we're getting close to locking in a CAD thump and not seeing much support if any to keep the primary from staying south of us. Still time to shift but with gun to head I'd say the chances of that are pretty low. 

Have to agree in regards to the primary. Think the chances are pretty strong we see that move above our latitude to the west. Question I have is, can we see a transference of pressures southeastwards to off the coast where a possible coastal can become the dominate low below our latitude. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We haven't seen a CAD setup like this this year. It's entirely possible that the mid level cold gets driven down to the VA/NC border before WAA precip attacks. GFS has more of a warm bias than cold in the midrange. The most important piece (depth of midlevel CAD) won't be figured out until the short range. Of course I agree that the northern/western zone are in the best spots because they always are with these types of events but looks like a juiced up system. A good event in your yard is still very much on the table.  

Reminds me of 2/20/15 storm where the CAD held on long enough for an 8” thump.  Of course the big difference is that (I think) temps were in the teens leading up to that storm.  

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Have to agree in regards to the primary. Think the chances are pretty strong we see that move above our latitude to the west. Question I have is, can we see a transference of pressures southeastwards to off the coast where a possible coastal can become the dominate low below our latitude. 

I also think a transfer will occur with this. 9lh_conus.gif

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Reminds me of 2/20/15 storm where the CAD held on long enough for an 8” thump.  Of course the big difference is that (I think) temps were in the teens leading up to that storm.  

This is better than that setup honestly. Yea, that 2015 storm had ridiculous insitu CAD and was a true anomaly given the upper level pattern but the cold high pressure was out in the atlantic by the time precip started. The depth of cold was crazy so even though it was eroding the entire time, the cold won over southerly flow by the time precip shutoff. This event is more classic. There's a real CAD high in a decent spot with cold drain from the north all the way until onset. 

Not saying that I think next week will deliver like 2015. Just pointing out the difference in features. A little luck and the whole area could get a really nice shot of snow before WAA in the mids wins the battle. For 4-5 days out I really like what I see and there is room to improve. Won't know until this weekend though. If HP is weaker or quicker to escape it could be a total non event. If CAD trends stronger it could be a significant event. 

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Fv3's snowmaps are insanely flawed but I think the progression is very believable. It's a colder/juicier version of the gfs but still realistic. Would be a pretty significant snow/sleet/zr even for everyone along and west of 95. If the surface temps on the Fv3 are correct, there could be some substantial icing in the northern areas and also areas along the blue ridge. 

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4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

I also think a transfer will occur with this. 

Oh, I am getting pretty confident that we will in fact see a coastal. But the question is, how quick the process is into getting that coastal to become the dominant low and where it is located at that time as it will have an impacts on the tail end of the WAA and possibly afterwards. If we see that coastal take over off of Jersey or north we probably see over running snows that flip to rain. If we see the flip in pressures somewhere off our coast then we probably see WAA snows followed by a dry slot and/or light drizzle. Get that low to become dominate south of our latitude between OBX and the mouth of the Bay then it can get exciting real quick as we transition from WAA snows to possibly CCB/wraparound snows as the low pulls up the coast. 

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