ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Could all still go down as a 32.1er ... 950 is pretty cold....so I'm leaning against the 32.1 idea at least for the ASH to ORH corridor and 495 belt....might be 32.1 in the 128 belt down to N CT after minimal glaze though if warmer solutions start taking hold. But there's obviously still time for trending....if 18z NAM thermals are the start of a real trend that is accurate, then it could move this into almost a pure elevation event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 950 is pretty cold....so I'm leaning against the 32.1 idea at least for the ASH to ORH corridor and 495 belt....might be 32.1 in the 128 belt down to N CT after minimal glaze though if warmer solutions start taking hold. But there's obviously still time for trending....if 18z NAM thermals are the start of a real trend that is accurate, then it could move this into almost a pure elevation event. Oh me too .. .for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 about that 32.1 ... ...Nature, regardless of discipline, loves to do that - ever noticed that? It likes to put the whole universe behind a single decimal point that defines the whole system. Interesting ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I wonder if there's ever been an event where for 2 hours it was 32.13 and for the next 2 hours it was 31.981 .... over and over again for two days. Like the aggregate/intervals count = 0 C exactly but because of the oscillation you get exactly 0 ice - awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 If this trends to elevation event I’m gonna trend to a drinking event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If this trends to elevation event I’m gonna trend to a drinking event 2008 everyone under 1000' sat at 33F for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Looks pretty icy for me in the hills in NW & NW CT... including Kevin. At least around here I'm thinking an elevation event. The NAM has some pockets of 1" of ZR in some of the hills just west of Hartford. Not ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 2008 everyone under 1000' sat at 33F for hours. Thank goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Thank goodness. Yeah, I don't love ice either but it was just amazing to hold that temp without budging either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Thank goodness. I think it's probably a tick colder than 08 in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2008 was less of an elevation around here in SE NH closer to the source region. It helped but damage was widespread and even extended parts of Haverhill near the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: 2008 was less of an elevation around here in SE NH closer to the source region. It helped but damage was widespread and even extended parts of Haverhill near the border Ya I was gonna say I saw photos and there’s a book .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, wx2fish said: 2008 was less of an elevation around here in SE NH closer to the source region. It helped but damage was widespread and even extended parts of Haverhill near the border East of ORH hills and esp up along 495 belt into S NH and Essex county MA (W of 95) it was really bad...elevation didn't play much role there....being closer to the source of dewpoint drain as you said. Once you got west of the crest of ORH hills, it became way more elevation dependent. I remember even MPM out at 1k in Shelborne didn't get much ice...you had to go to about 1200 feet to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 25 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks pretty icy for me in the hills in NW & NW CT... including Kevin. At least around here I'm thinking an elevation event. The NAM has some pockets of 1" of ZR in some of the hills just west of Hartford. Not ideal. Very ideal. I think we should hope this sticks to an elevation event as it seems most posters at elevation want it and the lowland folks don't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 2008 everyone under 1000' sat at 33F for hours. I thought it was a bit lower, my sister in law at 800 feet in Charlton got iced bad, most of Charlton north of 20 was iced and a few spots at 800 south. I sat at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 23 minutes ago, wx2fish said: 2008 was less of an elevation around here in SE NH closer to the source region. It helped but damage was widespread and even extended parts of Haverhill near the border I was referring to WNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I thought it was a bit lower, my sister in law at 800 feet in Charlton got iced bad, most of Charlton north of 20 was iced and a few spots at 800 south. I sat at 33. Hippy was eating granola bars playing frozen frisbee and changing bandanas . He was off a few feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I thought it was a bit lower, my sister in law at 800 feet in Charlton got iced bad, most of Charlton north of 20 was iced and a few spots at 800 south. I sat at 33. The further west you were, the higher you had to go....Charlton kind of sits on the spine of the hills in southern ORH county...so they were able to get icing below 1,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 hours ago, dryslot said: I was just basing that on the Euro, That was a sleet look on there for you, Meso's seem to be ticking cooler so we will see if that hols, For here, Were not working with a lot of qpf unless we get a few tics northward. More qpf-starved with each run. Maybe 1-2" of rime-mangled 6:1 flakes? Then some ZR to RA on Thursday night, and not much of either. This event has been getting less and less interesting as time passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3km nam looked nasty despite its 12k counterpart. The whole meso low thing is interesting. The cold dissolves I assume to latent heat release, but I wonder if guidance is going too wild with that. Kind of like what we saw in last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 21 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Very ideal. I think we should hope this sticks to an elevation event as it seems most posters at elevation want it and the lowland folks don't. Do you own a house? Ice sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1000’ ASL. Funny thing is this same road got hit by a weak tornado last summer that took down a bunch of trees. Kevin should move there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Do you own a house? Ice sucks Ya but I have a wood stove and generator. I don't wanna lose power for 3 weeks but a few days would be nice, reset the biological clock. Plus all the downed wood makes for good firewood scrounging. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3km nam looked nasty despite its 12k counterpart. The whole meso low thing is interesting. The cold dissolves I assume to latent heat release, but I wonder if guidance is going too wild with that. Kind of like what we saw in last event. Scott what are your thoughts on the immediate Boston area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 WWA here for freezing rain from 7pm Wednesday to 10am Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3km nam looked nasty despite its 12k counterpart. The whole meso low thing is interesting. The cold dissolves I assume to latent heat release, but I wonder if guidance is going too wild with that. Kind of like what we saw in last event. The model bias is almost always in the direction of eroding the cold too fast...Tip already mentioned this exact point and it's true. I think the one limiting factor will be antecedent airmass. We don't know what it will be. A couple degrees makes a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Yikes! Not liking the looks of the soundings around here tomorrow night. It's still rotting at 32° F here at hour 60 as the cutter comes in Thursday night. Euro has it icing into Friday AM too. My elevation puts me right smack dab in the midst of the cold layer with too much warmth above for sleet. Usually the base of the > 0° C layer needs to be above 800-825 mb for sleet here, unless it's super cold and/or warm layer is thin. 925 mb charts work quite well for my spot. While usually 925 mb is up closer to the 3K, there are cases when 925 mb is below me during stronger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Keep on eye on the HREF. Did a really nice job with the event a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 CF about to pass through. 56F here, but lower 40's just to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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