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George BM

February Banter 2019

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Just now, Jandurin said:

very MBY dependent storm

The WAA push isn't going to spare PSU all that much longer than Alexandria, I don't think. I don't think this is a storm where the mix line will stop just north of DCA and get stuck there for hours. We need the thump early and strong.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

People are assuming the best case scenario in a marginal situation. Yes, it is possible that a wall of heavy snow will move in for a few hours, then change to heavy sleet for hours (a very rare event here), then change to ZR for hours, then dry slot. All at 31.5 degrees with strong warmth pushing up from the south and southwest. Yes, the models do sort of show this, but if you are near I-95 you need to tweak for climo, which says this will be disappointing. Personally, I think the first thing to bust will be the mega-rates. Those rarely materialize when we need them. We will waste the "thump" period and good temps on spotty crap.

You stated your point, which I generally agree with. So you are good. No need to rehash it over and over as it seems to drive the weenies mad and mucks up the discussion.  Right or wrong.  

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The WAA push isn't going to spare PSU all that much longer than Alexandria, I don't think. I don't think this is a storm where the mix line will stop just north of DCA and get stuck there for hours. We need the thump early and strong.

that basically almost happened just a few weeks ago at my location just NW of the city and DID happen at psu's

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Phin is slow.  I said all this yesterday.  You either get the cold air press in or you don't.  If it does then it won't scour out as fast as some models say.  If it doesn't then all these weenie snow maps will bust hard.

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3 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

You stated your point, which I generally agree with. So you are good. No need to rehash it over and over as it seems to drive the weenies mad and mucks up the discussion.  Right or wrong.  

But here's the thing -- some of us veterans here say it EVERY SINGLE STORM and you snow map hugging weenies don't get it. And want to be combative about it. 

Phin can keep repeating himself. 

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I don't really think of this as a marginal situation but my bar isn't that high

Snow in the morning leading to OPM closure and hopefully the snow lasts until noon

that seems reasonable

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

But here's the thing -- some of us veterans here say it EVERY SINGLE STORM and you snow map hugging weenies don't get it. And want to be combative about it. 

Phin can keep repeating himself. 

It's definitely healthy to have his point of view expressed, no doubt. And he's most likely right. There are a bunch of new weenies on the board so maybe it's more directed toward them. I understand. I generally agree with phins thoughts. Maybe spread the sentiment out a bit more to once or twice every 3 hours between model runs. Just to remind and crush the snow map huggers. 

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1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

It's definitely healthy to have his point of view expressed, no doubt. And he's most likely right. There are a bunch of new weenies on the board so maybe it's more directed toward them. I understand. I generally agree with phins thoughts. Maybe spread the sentiment out a bit more to once or twice every 3 hours between model runs. Just to remind and crush the snow map huggers. 

:lol: i like this plan 

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2 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

I'm mentally preparing myself that this storm busts very low and I end up with an inch of slop, and nothing but green grass by the end of the day as it all turns to rain sooner than advertised

Wise.

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If i lived in Stephens City I'd say that is wise as well.  It never snows, rains, clouds, suns or airs there.

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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

If i lived in Stephens City I'd say that is wise as well.  It never snows, rains, clouds, suns or airs there.

wrong

this past year it learned how to drizzle for 48 hour periods

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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

If i lived in Stephens City I'd say that is wise as well.  It never snows, rains, clouds, suns or airs there.

Actually, we get lots of air there, with great variety.  There is warm air, hot air, dry air, humid air, and often air that moves real fast and blows trashcans and patio furniture around.

Oh, and sun.  Lots and lots of that. 

You pretty much nailed the rest though.

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I 100% agree with Phin's comments on 31.5 and mod/heavy rain is the same as 35 and rain.  But I haven't really noticed people buying into a major ice storm for the cities/close in burbs.  Best thing people can do in these setups is understand your climo.

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I'm planning on getting up early and taking a walk for a couple of hours in at least moderate snow that I probably will be able to hear accumulating.  What happens the rest of the day is really not that important to me.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I'm planning on getting up early and taking a walk for a couple of hours in at least moderate snow that I probably will be able to hear accumulating.  What happens the rest of the day is really not that important to me.

This.  I'm looking forward to a wintry day tomorrow and taking the dogs for a long walk in the morning while its snowing.  Even if I'm raining by 2pm, I could care less...I'll enjoy what falls and not bitch about it.

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This place is so funny. You have the delusional that see a snow map and are now expecting 4-8" area wide. Then, you have those that are so miserable about everything that they must rain on everyone's parade at all times. Everything is worst case scenario. Then, you have those in the middle trying to be real and trying to convince the other two groups to meet in the middle.

For this storm, you're safe going in expecting the following to happen.......1) we will get a short period of snow accumulating 1-4" depending on your area. 2) That will be followed by a period of sleet going into the early afternoon before transitioning to ZR. 3) The surface cold air will be tough to scour out as it always is, so even while roads may get to that state of just being wet in the late afternoon, raised surfaces/trees will still glaze. 4) eventually we go to light rain/drizzle as we all rise above freezing.

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1 minute ago, snowfan said:

This place is so funny. You have the delusional that see a snow map and are now expecting 4-8" area wide. Then, you have those that are so miserable about everything that they must rain on everyone's parade at all times. Everything is worst case scenario. Then, you have those in the middle trying to be real and trying to convince the other two groups to meet in the middle.

For this storm, you're safe going in expecting the following to happen.......1) we will get a short period of snow accumulating 1-4" depending on your area. 2) That will be followed by a period of sleet going into the early afternoon before transitioning to ZR. 3) The surface cold air will be tough to scour out as it always is, so even while roads may get to that state of just being wet in the late afternoon, raised surfaces/trees will still glaze. 4) eventually we go to light rain/drizzle as we all rise above freezing.

Ha, this is such a perfect characterization of this forum. Well done. 

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9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I don't like trends towards less qpf.

Yeah, less qpf and warmer if anything from yesterday. NWS is going to bust hard with that ridiculously overzealous map they started way too high with. Good rule of thumb, especially in these CAD/marginal temp situations is to start low and take em up the closer you get as need be. Not the other way around as the public now has the wrong idea in their heads. :facepalm:

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7 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Yeah, less qpf and warmer if anything from yesterday. NWS is going to bust hard with that ridiculously overzealous map they started way too high with. Good rule of thumb, especially in these CAD/marginal temp situations is to start low and take em up the closer you get as need be. Not the other way around as the public now has the wrong idea in their heads. :facepalm:

appreciate the feedback from Boston

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

appreciate the feedback from Boston

Yeah, I like how he/she came in the storm thread to tell us about how aggressive the warm layer has been. Because none of us have been following that and harping on it for days.

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Just now, snowfan said:

Yeah, I like how he/she came in the storm thread to tell us about how aggressive the warm layer has been. Because none of us have been following that and harping on it for days.

at least they did it in the banter thread. 

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17 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Yeah, less qpf and warmer if anything from yesterday. NWS is going to bust hard with that ridiculously overzealous map they started way too high with. Good rule of thumb, especially in these CAD/marginal temp situations is to start low and take em up the closer you get as need be. Not the other way around as the public now has the wrong idea in their heads. :facepalm:

Phew, without your expertise none of us would know what to expect.  You should get a job at LWX.

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i'd rather LWX go high than low anyway

get people off the roads as much as possible

if you underforecast something like this and a ton of people are on the road it could be real ugly

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