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George BM

February Banter 2019

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10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If MN Transplant is doing play-by-play, you know it's gonna be a meh run. He seems to enjoy providing the blow-by-blow breakdown of a storm falling apart and turning to rain.

Lmao I read this then I read his post about 33 and heavy rain

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

One thing not to like on the 3km NAM - the intense rainband at 10pm when it is 33 degrees.

1” frozen through 7pm

1” not frozen after that through 1am

Even if its 3” of rain after 7pm, I’m stoked by getting 1” of frozen all day Wednesday.  Will be a nice wintry day.  Honestly, it’ll be 50 Thursday so even if I got 12” of snow, it’ll be gone by Thursday anyways.  

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Soundings could support sleet and Phineas would always default to.......no, it's awful cold rain. it just happened to refreeze before hitting the ground.

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Tenman would be a star in this forum. What has happened here? A model comes out and there are 4 separate play by plays all cockeyed analysis with extreme shifts and emotions. Worse than watching a soap opera. It’s a soap opera on Percocet and shrooms out there. 

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4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Tenman would be a star in this forum. What has happened here? A model comes out and there are 4 separate play by plays all cockeyed analysis with extreme shifts and emotions. Worse than watching a soap opera. It’s a soap opera on Percocet and shrooms out there. 

Pretty much a NAM shit show, but been quite entertaining if I’m being honest. Need the GFS to just chill everyone out though. Speaking of Chill...missing him quite a bit leading into this one. ERS though-you have been crushing it. I think your forecast easily verifies. 

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14 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Soundings could support sleet and Phineas would always default to.......no, it's awful cold rain. it just happened to refreeze before hitting the ground.

Dude, in DCA a big sleet storm is pretty anomalous. I am not going out on a limb saying the UHI hellscape will have more rain than expected. Is anyone here going to be surprised by pretty early reports from places like Alexandria of rain mixing in??

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2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Check it out, a 36-50" band in southern AZ! 

Weather-Story3.png

my mom lives in vegas. snowed an inch or two there this morning, which is pretty unusual. guess they aren't done around there.

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5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Pretty much a NAM shit show, but been quite entertaining if I’m being honest. Need the GFS to just chill everyone out though. Speaking of Chill...missing him quite a bit leading into this one. ERS though-you have been crushing it. I think your forecast easily verifies. 

Awesome thanks. Need some redemption after the January bust

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9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Dude, in DCA a big sleet storm is pretty anomalous. I am not going out on a limb saying the UHI hellscape will have more rain than expected. Is anyone here going to be surprised by pretty early reports from places like Alexandria of rain mixing in??

I’m hoping your wrong.  I think I hold off on pure rain until after 7p.  

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7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Pretty much a NAM shit show, but been quite entertaining if I’m being honest. Need the GFS to just chill everyone out though. Speaking of Chill...missing him quite a bit leading into this one. ERS though-you have been crushing it. I think your forecast easily verifies. 

he's the dude. deals with the weenies well, too. i'm assuming he just needed a break. this place is like the streetball of forecasting where everyone is trying to show out lol, but in a world of social media, this place does serve a niche.

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28 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Check it out, a 36-50" band in southern AZ! 

Weather-Story3.png

That’s northern AZ and they get big snows all the time. They had a storm over 100” in that area in 1967. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s northern AZ and they get big snows all the time. They had a storm over 100” in that area in 1967. 

That's not all the time.. I lived in Sedona for 2 Winter's and the most they got was 2". I think they average 3", with normal January highs around 59. 

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2 hours ago, Snowchaser said:

This is the Max snowfall by NOAA.  posted 6:40

Look at the difference from the north western part of this county compared to the southern part!

:blink:  :lmao: 15 inches vs 5 inches in just a few miles

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

E L E V A T I O N. That same distance probably goes from 600 ft to 3300-3500 ft

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s northern AZ and they get big snows all the time. They had a storm over 100” in that area in 1967. 

Actually 15-21" in Prescott is a really big deal. They average about as much as DCA... maybe a little less.

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8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

That's not all the time.. I lived in Sedona for 2 Winter's and the most they got was 2". I think they average 3", with normal January highs around 59. 

It’s highly elevation dependent. Sedona averages 18” a year though. Flagstaff averages a little over 100” and some of the higher peaks in that area average over 250”.  Arizona snow bowl ski resort near there averages 260”.  A lot of that snow (like other southwest ranges such as the Sierra and San Juan’s) comes in sporadic big dumps. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s pretty similar in that the best dynamics are down by you guys at the base of the high but we are also seeing similarities up here now too in that models generated squat up here with that event beyond 72 hours and slowly produced more and more QPF as they resolved the overrunning.  I ended up with over 5 inches and according to most models 3 days out would have had nothing 

No one cares what NYC gets from this in the MA forum.

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Actually 15-21" in Prescott is a really big deal. They average about as much as DCA... maybe a little less.

For sure...I was referring to that area of 30-50” he referred too along the Mogollon Rim. That area averages about 150-200” a year.  This does look like a significant storm for some lower elevation cities that don’t typically get big snow like Prescott. But he made it seem like that area of AZ doesn’t get snow when big snowstorms are fairly common in that general area. This one does seem to be affecting unusually low elevations in the area more than normal. I do think that 1967 storm I brought up gave Prescott 20”+ though. 

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Plenty of time for snow chatter over the next 2 days. So how bout that Caps 1st period!? Ovi with number 41. I think he can get 60? Fingers crossed, though all I really care about is “back to back”. B)

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Just now, Scraff said:

Plenty of time for snow chatter over the next 2 days. So how bout that Caps 1st period!? Ovi with number 41. I think he can get 60? Fingers crossed, though all I really care about is “back to back”. B)

My buddy is at the game and sent me a video on IG of the Ovi goal...the place erupted.  So many caps fans there. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

For sure...I was referring to that area of 30-50” he referred too along the Mogollon Rim. That area averages about 150-200” a year.  This does look like a significant storm for some lower elevation cities that don’t typically get big snow like Prescott. But he made it seem like that area of AZ doesn’t get snow when big snowstorms are fairly common in that general area. This one does seem to be affecting unusually low elevations in the area more than normal. I do think that 1967 storm I brought up gave Prescott 20”+ though. 

Flagstaff is a good place to live if you want every winter (or at least most of them) to be like 2009-10.

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