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George BM

February Banter 2019

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4 hours ago, Jandurin said:

scotch has many different flavors

meh...i've tried it a few times and i get that same peaty flavor that just overwhelms it for me.  bourbon is much more palatable to me.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Seriously, I'm just happy to be tracking something.  All along, I've been setting my bar at 2 to 4, followed by some sleet.  Not worried about some serious ice storm.  It's not going to happen here.  Better chance for you tho

Where are you located?  I’m in Fairfax and I feel like we have a goood chance of at least 3-5” before sleet takes over. While I love a coastal more than anything, this has been a good storm to track and anything can happen. I’m mentally prepared for just couple of inches before a changeover. Looking forward to a snow day regardless. 

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Baltimore-north ain’t in the game really. 2-3” max I’m thinking. I need 3.8 to match last year’s total, but that seems like a tall order.

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Just now, Snowchaser said:

Man are you in Cville? I'm near the mountains  just south and west of C town, I like our chances for 6+ with this before the sleet and ice storm 

Yeah, I'm a student at UVA.

I'm also feeling good about this one. 6"+ is bold, but last time you were posting (I think) was Dec 8th and you willed 12" to Charlottesville, so who am I to judge.

Definitely looks sleety. I've never seen a real sleet storm. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I'm a student at UVA.

I'm also feeling good about this one. 6"+ is bold, but last time you were posting (I think) was Dec 8th and you willed 12" to Charlottesville, so who am I to judge.

Definitely looks sleety. I've never seen a real sleet storm. 

 

JAN 94' was an incredible sleet storm here with like 5 .5" + . 25-50  Miles to the north 18" of snow lol

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I'm a student at UVA.

I'm also feeling good about this one. 6"+ is bold, but last time you were posting (I think) was Dec 8th and you willed 12" to Charlottesville, so who am I to judge.

Definitely looks sleety. I've never seen a real sleet storm. 

I picked up 14' inches with that storm back in Dec :D

Call me a crazy man lol. But I think 9-10' inches is doable with this :maprain:

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Don't know if Wednesday will be our last shot at appreciable snowfall this season, but if the storm performs as modeled here, it could solidify this as a good winter.  With 3.5" I hit climo in my yard.  With 5.5" I would be able to record back-to-back months with double-digit snowfall totals.  And with 7" I would pass 30" for the season.  Hitting any of those marks puts this into the top third of winters in this area.

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

4 inch per hour rates!

Calm down lol.

Seriously. That post should be framed in the weenie hall of fame. 

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

K. The lambs won’t stop screaming for me after the January thing never really got going. here.

Same here. One thing I'm not gonna be doing- and it may be somewhat different where you are- is hoping this event will "over perform" to make up for that, so to speak. These types of setups typically disappoint outside of the favored areas west of the fall line. This seems to have a bit more potential than the usual west track/CAD deal however. It is somewhat unique compared to other similar events in my mind.

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1 minute ago, Snowchaser said:

They're fake news. they change the map every 2 hours lol. 

They change it due to new data, collaborations with WPC and neighboring offices to maintain some continuity. They don't do it because they feel like it. 

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Re: LWX constantly updating their snowfall maps......idk, everyone has their own style. CWG had me in a 2-5" zone earlier today with a boom of 8". That's a CYA forecast if there ever was one. And, I really like CWG, but it seems like they always produce a product that makes it very hard for anyone to claim they were wrong. 

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Same here. One thing I'm not gonna be doing- and it may be somewhat different where you are- is hoping this event will "over perform" to make up for that, so to speak. These types of setups typically disappoint outside of the favored areas west of the fall line. This seems to have a bit more potential than the usual west track/CAD deal however. It is somewhat unique compared to other similar events in my mind.

I still think this whole deal is really tenuous. Without rates it is going to suck, and it’s very common for us to all hype big rates only for the radar to be spotty and weak for hours on end. 

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1 minute ago, PDIII said:

No one is getting 4" inch an hour rates. That's Sierra Nevada powder keg stuff.   I think the most I ever measured in an hour in my lifetime was 3 and that was once in 2010 and once in January 2011.  I think Valentines Day 2015 may have came close.. but that was a frontal passage.. freak show event.

In terms of banding.. Check Mappy's post above. You really dont know where the deathband(s) will set up.   Banding is going to be meso and we probably wont have a handle on it until some time tomorrow night or right before game time.  

I've had 4"/hr rates twice in my entire life. 4.25"/hr in the crazy thundersnow, deathband in the 2006 coastal, and Feb 2013 in Boston for the blizzard (Nemo) up there. 4"/hr was the max up there, but we had 3 separate 3"/hr bands. It was nutty. 

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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

meh...i've tried it a few times and i get that same peaty flavor that just overwhelms it for me.  bourbon is much more palatable to me.

If you've got the cash, try Glengoyne (I think it's around $50).  I also like the Speyside scotches a lot.  Very briny without the peat.

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10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I still think this whole deal is really tenuous. Without rates it is going to suck, and it’s very common for us to all hype big rates only for the radar to be spotty and weak for hours on end. 

Well yeah, if the FGEN forcing doesn't maximize over this area- could happen more to the SW or the NE, or just be generally "spotty" in our region- then the cold column might be wasted with hours of light to moderate snow that doesn't amount to that much in a lot of places.

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