CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 There have been 2 general setups like this one going back to mid Nov, and both resulted in a half inch of frozen here. This setup is a bit different, so an inch would be nice, but I have no expectations as it completely depends on how quickly the precip arrives/overcomes the dry air, and how heavy it gets at that time- and models are not in agreement on that. Beyond the first few hours its a quick flip to sleet then plain rain here. If the initial thump maximizes, then maybe the 2-4" call by Mount Holly might work out. eta- I expect the Watch to go to an advisory here later today. This clearly looks below the threshold for a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not feeling this one? Nws seems overly bullish to me. People are assuming the best case scenario in a marginal situation. Yes, it is possible that a wall of heavy snow will move in for a few hours, then change to heavy sleet for hours (a very rare event here), then change to ZR for hours, then dry slot. All at 31.5 degrees with strong warmth pushing up from the south and southwest. Yes, the models do sort of show this, but if you are near I-95 you need to tweak for climo, which says this will be disappointing. Personally, I think the first thing to bust will be the mega-rates. Those rarely materialize when we need them. We will waste the "thump" period and good temps on spotty crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 very MBY dependent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: very MBY dependent storm You can say that about most events in this region lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: very MBY dependent storm it always is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: very MBY dependent storm The WAA push isn't going to spare PSU all that much longer than Alexandria, I don't think. I don't think this is a storm where the mix line will stop just north of DCA and get stuck there for hours. We need the thump early and strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: You can say that about most events in this region lol. true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: People are assuming the best case scenario in a marginal situation. Yes, it is possible that a wall of heavy snow will move in for a few hours, then change to heavy sleet for hours (a very rare event here), then change to ZR for hours, then dry slot. All at 31.5 degrees with strong warmth pushing up from the south and southwest. Yes, the models do sort of show this, but if you are near I-95 you need to tweak for climo, which says this will be disappointing. Personally, I think the first thing to bust will be the mega-rates. Those rarely materialize when we need them. We will waste the "thump" period and good temps on spotty crap. You stated your point, which I generally agree with. So you are good. No need to rehash it over and over as it seems to drive the weenies mad and mucks up the discussion. Right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The WAA push isn't going to spare PSU all that much longer than Alexandria, I don't think. I don't think this is a storm where the mix line will stop just north of DCA and get stuck there for hours. We need the thump early and strong. that basically almost happened just a few weeks ago at my location just NW of the city and DID happen at psu's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Phin is slow. I said all this yesterday. You either get the cold air press in or you don't. If it does then it won't scour out as fast as some models say. If it doesn't then all these weenie snow maps will bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stormpc said: You stated your point, which I generally agree with. So you are good. No need to rehash it over and over as it seems to drive the weenies mad and mucks up the discussion. Right or wrong. But here's the thing -- some of us veterans here say it EVERY SINGLE STORM and you snow map hugging weenies don't get it. And want to be combative about it. Phin can keep repeating himself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I don't really think of this as a marginal situation but my bar isn't that high Snow in the morning leading to OPM closure and hopefully the snow lasts until noon that seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, mappy said: But here's the thing -- some of us veterans here say it EVERY SINGLE STORM and you snow map hugging weenies don't get it. And want to be combative about it. Phin can keep repeating himself. It's definitely healthy to have his point of view expressed, no doubt. And he's most likely right. There are a bunch of new weenies on the board so maybe it's more directed toward them. I understand. I generally agree with phins thoughts. Maybe spread the sentiment out a bit more to once or twice every 3 hours between model runs. Just to remind and crush the snow map huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 if i had the power i'd delete every snowmap i saw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: It's definitely healthy to have his point of view expressed, no doubt. And he's most likely right. There are a bunch of new weenies on the board so maybe it's more directed toward them. I understand. I generally agree with phins thoughts. Maybe spread the sentiment out a bit more to once or twice every 3 hours between model runs. Just to remind and crush the snow map huggers. i like this plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 hours ago, smokeybandit said: I'm mentally preparing myself that this storm busts very low and I end up with an inch of slop, and nothing but green grass by the end of the day as it all turns to rain sooner than advertised Wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 If i lived in Stephens City I'd say that is wise as well. It never snows, rains, clouds, suns or airs there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Folks going to be dropping like flies around here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, H2O said: If i lived in Stephens City I'd say that is wise as well. It never snows, rains, clouds, suns or airs there. wrong this past year it learned how to drizzle for 48 hour periods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 oh i'm already in a winter storm warning I would've thought they'd wait for midday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, H2O said: If i lived in Stephens City I'd say that is wise as well. It never snows, rains, clouds, suns or airs there. Actually, we get lots of air there, with great variety. There is warm air, hot air, dry air, humid air, and often air that moves real fast and blows trashcans and patio furniture around. Oh, and sun. Lots and lots of that. You pretty much nailed the rest though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I 100% agree with Phin's comments on 31.5 and mod/heavy rain is the same as 35 and rain. But I haven't really noticed people buying into a major ice storm for the cities/close in burbs. Best thing people can do in these setups is understand your climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I'm planning on getting up early and taking a walk for a couple of hours in at least moderate snow that I probably will be able to hear accumulating. What happens the rest of the day is really not that important to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: I'm planning on getting up early and taking a walk for a couple of hours in at least moderate snow that I probably will be able to hear accumulating. What happens the rest of the day is really not that important to me. This. I'm looking forward to a wintry day tomorrow and taking the dogs for a long walk in the morning while its snowing. Even if I'm raining by 2pm, I could care less...I'll enjoy what falls and not bitch about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Why is everyone complaining about sleetfest 2019? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 This place is so funny. You have the delusional that see a snow map and are now expecting 4-8" area wide. Then, you have those that are so miserable about everything that they must rain on everyone's parade at all times. Everything is worst case scenario. Then, you have those in the middle trying to be real and trying to convince the other two groups to meet in the middle. For this storm, you're safe going in expecting the following to happen.......1) we will get a short period of snow accumulating 1-4" depending on your area. 2) That will be followed by a period of sleet going into the early afternoon before transitioning to ZR. 3) The surface cold air will be tough to scour out as it always is, so even while roads may get to that state of just being wet in the late afternoon, raised surfaces/trees will still glaze. 4) eventually we go to light rain/drizzle as we all rise above freezing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, snowfan said: This place is so funny. You have the delusional that see a snow map and are now expecting 4-8" area wide. Then, you have those that are so miserable about everything that they must rain on everyone's parade at all times. Everything is worst case scenario. Then, you have those in the middle trying to be real and trying to convince the other two groups to meet in the middle. For this storm, you're safe going in expecting the following to happen.......1) we will get a short period of snow accumulating 1-4" depending on your area. 2) That will be followed by a period of sleet going into the early afternoon before transitioning to ZR. 3) The surface cold air will be tough to scour out as it always is, so even while roads may get to that state of just being wet in the late afternoon, raised surfaces/trees will still glaze. 4) eventually we go to light rain/drizzle as we all rise above freezing. Ha, this is such a perfect characterization of this forum. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I don't like trends towards less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I don't like trends towards less qpf. Yeah, less qpf and warmer if anything from yesterday. NWS is going to bust hard with that ridiculously overzealous map they started way too high with. Good rule of thumb, especially in these CAD/marginal temp situations is to start low and take em up the closer you get as need be. Not the other way around as the public now has the wrong idea in their heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Yeah, less qpf and warmer if anything from yesterday. NWS is going to bust hard with that ridiculously overzealous map they started way too high with. Good rule of thumb, especially in these CAD/marginal temp situations is to start low and take em up the closer you get as need be. Not the other way around as the public now has the wrong idea in their heads. appreciate the feedback from Boston 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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