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February Banter 2019


George BM
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Just now, PhineasC said:

It's just reality. I'm as big a weenie as anyone.

I agree if it's moderate to heavy rain at temps near 31-32, it's not going to do much. Moderate at 29-30 is closer to something nasty. Light rain and temps 32 or lower will be serious issues. I think the back end of the storm will be the time frame where most ZR occurs. Still a saturated lower boundary layer heading into 0z Thursday. Freezing mist will make things nice and icy NW of the fall line. Either way, travel on Wednesday, anytime of the day will be ugly. 

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

I've had my brain set on sleet bomb from the get go so when the models are showing sleet I'm not disappointed...of course those hunting big totals are disappointed and will have to point out how sleety this storm is and go next

Yeah I'm all in on a sleetfest. Loved Valentine's 2007. It's in my second tier of winter events (first tier being all the usual HECSy suspects.) If it's going to be 1-2" followed by a change I'd just as soon have it all sleet. Of course I got my MECS last month so I can afford to be a little flippant. Pun not really intended. 

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

I've had my brain set on sleet bomb from the get go so when the models are showing sleet I'm not disappointed...of course those hunting big totals are disappointed and will have to point out how sleety this storm is and go next

Seriously, I'm just happy to be tracking something.  All along, I've been setting my bar at 2 to 4, followed by some sleet.  Not worried about some serious ice storm.  It's not going to happen here.  Better chance for you tho

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I have to laugh about DT and his update.  Since he canceled winter for the east coast earlier in the week, he has been hesitant to talk about this event other than it wouldn’t be a big deal. Now, he finally says that the newest short term models indicate that the cold air IS going to last after the precipitation gets started.  As if the models have not been showing this for a week.  Lol  

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Seriously, I'm just happy to be tracking something.  All along, I've been setting my bar at 2 to 4, followed by some sleet.  Not worried about some serious ice storm.  It's not going to happen here.  Better chance for you tho

Where are you located?  I’m in Fairfax and I feel like we have a goood chance of at least 3-5” before sleet takes over. While I love a coastal more than anything, this has been a good storm to track and anything can happen. I’m mentally prepared for just couple of inches before a changeover. Looking forward to a snow day regardless. 

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Just now, Snowchaser said:

Man are you in Cville? I'm near the mountains  just south and west of C town, I like our chances for 6+ with this before the sleet and ice storm 

Yeah, I'm a student at UVA.

I'm also feeling good about this one. 6"+ is bold, but last time you were posting (I think) was Dec 8th and you willed 12" to Charlottesville, so who am I to judge.

Definitely looks sleety. I've never seen a real sleet storm. 

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I'm a student at UVA.

I'm also feeling good about this one. 6"+ is bold, but last time you were posting (I think) was Dec 8th and you willed 12" to Charlottesville, so who am I to judge.

Definitely looks sleety. I've never seen a real sleet storm. 

I picked up 14' inches with that storm back in Dec :D

Call me a crazy man lol. But I think 9-10' inches is doable with this :maprain:

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Don't know if Wednesday will be our last shot at appreciable snowfall this season, but if the storm performs as modeled here, it could solidify this as a good winter.  With 3.5" I hit climo in my yard.  With 5.5" I would be able to record back-to-back months with double-digit snowfall totals.  And with 7" I would pass 30" for the season.  Hitting any of those marks puts this into the top third of winters in this area.

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