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February 1, 2019 Clipper Snow


WxUSAF
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
948 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVING FROM THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY IMPACT THE AREA 
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING AS BANDED SNOW IS PRODUCING VERY EFFICIENT SNOW RATES,
WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF 6 INCHES UPSTREAM, AND SOME VALUES
ALREADY APPROACHING THAT IN OUR CWA. THIS MAY TRANSLATE INTO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND, ALTHOUGH OUR
FORECAST WAS ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LATEST
HRRR/RAP RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHEST QPF REMAINING WEST
OF I-81. ADDED NORTHERN FAUQUIER TO THE ADVISORY BASED ON THESE
QPF TRENDS. THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP CUTOFF TO VERY LITTLE SNOW 
SOUTH OF I-66 SO FAR WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...AND IT'S POSSIBLE 
THIS HOLDS THROUGH THE EVENT AS FORCING WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON. 
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEW AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPING THERE.

 

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3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Thin layer of icy snow is actually much worse than 6” of snow.  

This is why the NWS put out a very strong advisory about travel and the reason some school systems closed.  I think it was 2016 when there was a very light dusting of snow around rush hour and an abundance of accidents.  When the ground is very cold, it's creates terribly icy conditions.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Roads temps are vodka cold and the traditional ice melt that's used on local or municipal roads in Montgomery is usually just rock salt.  The good stuff it typically reserved for interstate roads...our road temps are below 22° in the county so the treatment isn't going to work very well.  A lot of folks forget that brining and rock salt isn't designed necessarily to make roads wet and perfect during the event but rather after the event once the sun comes out.  

People are just used to "oh it'll melt for several hours before it actually has any impact on the roads" which isn't true when the road temp is so cold.

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1 minute ago, GATECH said:

Brilliant, as the radar blossoms south of 66!

 I know. I was just thinking this.  Isn't most of Washington DC technically south of I-66 if the highway is extrapolated eastward?  And if you look at radar, even the dry slot that had been over Prince William is filling in, while that little band over Arlington and DCA seems to have become stationary. 

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Just now, real said:

 I know. I was just thinking this.  Isn't most of Washington DC technically south of I-66 if the highway is extrapolated eastward?  And if you look at radar, even the dry slot that had been over Prince William is filling in, while that little band over Arlington and DCA seems to have become stationary. 

That radar in central Prince William is a little bit misleading. Dry air is eating up any decent snow. We've had some flurries but that's about it. Even now with solid returns there's very little coming down. Maybe that will change soon. At least it's been a decent offense for others. Not complaining.

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