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weatherwiz

The Annual Countdown to May 1st Thread ©

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We are still in the dead of winter, but severe weather season is QUICKLY approaching. Last year was insanely busy and we got started rather early with a tornado outbreak on May 15th. It was a historic year down here in CT as 2018 tied 1973 (and we can debate the accuracy of this) for most confirmed tornadoes in one year at 8. CT was even able to pull off some tornadoes into October. Hopefully we can get another active one this year. 

Let the countdown begin!!!

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6 hours ago, dendrite said:

5/1 is probably when the pattern will become favorable for cold coastals.

And it will be still too late for me!

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Im wondering if there are any stats to indicate how the year following a Historically active Severe Season plays out?

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18 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Im wondering if there are any stats to indicate how the year following a Historically active Severe Season plays out?

I’m not sure if there is much year-to-year variability...but then again they aren’t relatively common enough to probably yield any type of connection...plus we would have to come up with a way of measuring how “active a season was”. You could do wind/hail reports, but I dint think that is highly accurate although it may give an indication. 

Coukd also do thunderstorm days or events which produced at least an ‘x’ number of reports. 

I think though we tend to go through cycles of increased/decreased activity which span a few years. Like the early to mid 2000’s were active then 2009 into like 2012 was sort of dead outside of 06/01/2011. 

 

 

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Niño summers tend to have decent tstm activity. It’s probably due to the propensity for troughing into the eastern US.

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I’d say it’s been relative quiet overall. We had a lot of rain in western areas this past summer, but a lot of it was also batches of heavy rain iirc. Not necessarily thunder. I know we had some tors this summer, but a few didn’t even have LTG. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Niño summers tend to have decent tstm activity. It’s probably due to the propensity for troughing into the eastern US.

I could kill to have a summer like 2008. Outside of that year we never really had any other season that was similar to that with a persistent cold pool. Maybe 1992? 

 

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I could kill to have a summer like 2008. Outside of that year we never really had any other season that was similar to that with a persistent cold pool. Maybe 1992? 

 

No thanks. Not a fan of every sunny summer morning turning into BKN skies by 9am.

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On 2/1/2019 at 9:40 PM, dendrite said:

No thanks. Not a fan of every sunny summer morning turning into BKN skies by 9am.

For those that despise the heat and humidity it was a perfect summer. 

I actually want a repeat of last summer...the days and days of heat/humidity were awesome. 

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14 hours ago, dendrite said:

May can’t get here soon enough. My nape needs the kiss of warm 10am sun. 

100% this. I’m pale as hell. I need bronze season. 

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Just now, DomNH said:

100% this. I’m pale as hell. I need bronze season. 

I got out of work early today and put on shorts when I got home. Morch sun ftw.

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Looking out the window and thinking...man...its a winter wonderland and in two months it will be all green and we'll likely be tracking severe wx...wow

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On 3/4/2019 at 8:50 AM, weatherwiz said:

Looking out the window and thinking...man...its a winter wonderland and in two months it will be all green and we'll likely be tracking severe wx...wow

You're going to have to go #kansasing with Ian to see severe this year lol

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8 hours ago, yoda said:

You're going to have to go #kansasing with Ian to see severe this year lol

Next year I'll have two weeks vacation so a trip out west will be in the books :D 

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40 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Wiz isn't commenting on the EML overhead Friday?

Woah when did that change? I was looking at soundings the other day but wasn’t anything impressive then. Spent the last two days focusing on AFW and MEM

 

althiugh it looked a little interesting in the mid-Atlantic 

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HOLY WOW have I slacked. I started this thread January 30th and it's ALREADY March 14th. We're down to just 48 days...wow

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