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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Kuchera FTW! lol

It does kinda work for lake effect. I think that ratios should be generally in the 15-20:1 range. There should be some dendrites mixed today through this evening given VVs punching into the -18c layer closer to the ground. 

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

It does kinda work for lake effect. I think that ratios should be generally in the 15-20:1 range. There should be some dendrites mixed today through this evening given VVs punching into the -18c layer closer to the ground. 

It's going to be unusually cold, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get 20:1 later on. But definitely not that 28:1 stuff that the Kuchura spits out. I don't think I've ever seen that verify.

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1 minute ago, WNash said:

It's going to be unusually cold, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get 20:1 later on. But definitely not that 28:1 stuff that the Kuchura spits out. I don't think I've ever seen that verify.

The fluff that me and BuffaloWeather chased in North Collins and Boston the other night had to be 30:1 or even 40:1. I don’t think I’ve ever seen fluff like that. You could literally sneeze and clear off your entire car haha. 

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The radar over western Lake Erie out of Cleveland looks fantastic. Bands are rapidly blossoming indicative of at least a good amount of open water. This one has the feeling of a double whopper with cheese ala 85, Nov 2000, Dec 2010, Jan 14. :snowing:

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I sense another underperformer for the Southern Tug. Today's "event" and the end of the week. Maybe I will get a foot by the end of the week.

I hate this winter. Oh, and the NAM 3k.

 

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6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

The radar over western Lake Erie out of Cleveland looks fantastic. Bands are rapidly blossoming indicative of at least a good amount of open water. This one has the feeling of a double whopper with cheese ala 85, Nov 2000, Dec 2010, Jan 14. :snowing:

I think biggest fear would be the fact everyone went to school and work today under the impression it wouldn’t get bad until 4-5 tonight.  What if that band locks in over downtown all day and starts intensifying later in the afternoon.  Talk about a Nov 2000 that turns into a full in blizzard the following day.  

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1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah this event wasn’t supposed to get cranking until 5-6pm. The fact that radar looks like this, this early is very surprising and impressive. Maybe the lake has enough in her for a proper send off for the season. Wow!

It’s still January!?!? Who’s talking send off? Lmao

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This is gonna be epic for BUF. Hi Res pretty much all top out over the city. As usual, sharp cutoffs, but someone’s getting 2 feet easy. 

TUG feels a bit squishy right now. Not sure what voodoo was put on you guys. Upslope should be good for some snow. Probably 12x was Kroc is in for. So count your blessings. 

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Just now, rochesterdave said:

This is gonna be epic for BUF. Hi Res pretty much all top out over the city. As usual, sharp cutoffs, but someone’s getting 2 feet easy. 

TUG feels a bit squishy right now. Not sure what voodoo was put on you guys. Upslope should be good for some snow. Probably 12x was Kroc is in for. So count your blessings. 

Maybe I set my expectations too high?

It has been more and more difficult for me to contain my frustration, as it has been one let down after another.

I really do apologize for my negativity, friends...in the "real world" people wouldn't understand the frustration with missing a band of LES. LES has SUCKED here this winter....and now today's system that was set to give us upslope is too east.

Excited for you Buffalo guys though!

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23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Maybe I set my expectations too high?

It has been more and more difficult for me to contain my frustration, as it has been one let down after another.

I really do apologize for my negativity, friends...in the "real world" people wouldn't understand the frustration with missing a band of LES. LES has SUCKED here this winter....and now today's system that was set to give us upslope is too east.

Excited for you Buffalo guys though!

We have to have patience lol

I Know it's hard, just waiting for the other shoe to drop lol

I like overnight we'd in Thursday as the time frame we start to hopefully cash in..

ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

ref1km_ptype.us_ne (1).png

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Not much of an update to the warning, but yeah, it's going to get real soon.

We're going to have to really crank this afternoon and evening if we're going to get 6-12 through tonight. Still a bit skeptical about today but I think Wednesday-Friday will be nice. 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1018 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

NYZ007-008-292330-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190201T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0002.190130T2200Z-190131T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1018 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected through tonight. Heavy lake effect
  snow expected Wednesday through Friday morning. Snow
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches through tonight, with the
  greatest amounts on the Tug Hill Plateau. Snow accumulations
  of 2 to 3 feet possible Wednesday through Friday morning, with
  the greatest amounts on the Tug Hill Plateau. Winds could gust
  as high as 40 mph later Wednesday through Thursday, which may
  produce near blizzard conditions with severe blowing and
  drifting snow. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 7 AM EST Friday.
  For the Wind Chill Watch, from Wednesday afternoon through
  Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  or evening commute. The dangerously cold wind chills could
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.

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10 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Rochester under lake snow advisory now. Band goin to have legs.

Yeah, I thought it looked fishy to have a WSW stop right before Monroe Cty. with no advisory.

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55 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s still January!?!? Who’s talking send off? Lmao

Send off for lake effect lol, by this weekend the lake will likely be completely iced over with temperatures for days between -10 and +5. Then it’s pretty much Synoptic only season which if we can manage 2’ with this event we’ll already be close to seasonal snowfall of about 100”...

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Wow that band is absolutely cranking and consolidating right over the northtowns. From the north side of the city to Tonawanda and N. Amherst are getting raked!!

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30 minutes ago, tim123 said:

In extreme cases I have seen roc under warnings from lake Erie and Wayne county under advisory. 

Yeah, and it has never once verified.  This is something I stand very firmly on, especially being a west side of the county observer.  I'd take an inch though, we are desperate in this shit pattern.  haha

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Meant to type something up last night… but I guess this will have to do. I’ve been away from the LES action for a little bit so take it with a grain of salt.

I’m fully on board for a pretty significant event for BUF and for a large portion of Watertown/Tug Hill through Friday. I still think that ice chart that was posted the other day is fairly inaccurate. Based on the few pieces of the lake we can see right now, it seems to be more open than that map or the one from the National Ice Center seems to suggest.

Off Erie…

Lake effect has already developed a little quicker than expected right now, and an intense singular band appears to be organizing. This isn’t terribly unsurprising, given the 850mb front just passed over Lake Erie and winds are beginning to become better aligned. As temperatures continue to crash and boundary layer winds slacken a little bit through the afternoon, I see no reason that additional organization should continue throughout the day. Boundary layer winds are fairly unidirectional at about around 240°, which should put BUF in or just south the heart of LES through the day. While Lake-induced equilibrium heights only hover around 6-10kft the boundary layer does deepen significantly through the day. We also have fairly good snow growth potential today, as the DGZ still is within the cloud layer through at least the early overnight hours and also evidenced by some recent observations of dendrites falling in the heavier portions of the band.

Overnight, temperatures continue to fall and the boundary layer deepens to at least 700mb, as EL’s grow to 10-13kft, with LI CAPE profiles >1000J/kg. Boundary layer winds are very well aligned, though gradually shift from 240-250°. With the dendritic growth zone gradually be pushed down to the surface, it’s hard to expect extremely high ratio snow to continue, though there is just enough lift off the surface that there should be at least some snow growth to work with. Additionally, soundings suggest the potential for rather strong surface winds >20kts, which, combined with finer flakes and already significant accumulations, should lead to blizzard or near blizzard conditions. If LES develops as expected, I would not be surprised to see blizzard warnings for the BUF metro, especially if this continues into the rush hour traffic on Wednesday morning.

Same story continues Wednesday as lake-effect gradually slides south of the metro and towards southern Erie/northern Chautauqua/northern Wyoming/Genesee counties. Most of Wednesday looks to be heavy snow… though with variation in the overall band orientation should limit totals. There should still be a well organized, heavy lake-effect band as boundary layer depths reach about 650mb with 1500J/kg LI CAPE and ELs approaching 15kft. If some of the areas hit today/tonight can get into the action again, I could see totals approaching 30-36” (that’s not my actual forecast). Wednesday night through Thursday EL’s gradually decrease and boundary layer depth also decreases a bit as the best cold air move out of the area, with the same general areas seeing additional accumulating snow.

I do still have a few concerns that could limit this from being one of the “big ones”. How does limited snow growth potential limit snowfall rates? How do relatively strong boundary layer winds affect lake effect organization (and again), snowfall rates? While both of these factors are likely to increase the blizzard potential from the event, it may limit overall totals, especially in the latter half of the event. Another question I have is if this band can manage to impact Rochester as well - I have them in lower totals right now but I could see 6" amounts if things line up perfectly.

Off Ontario…

As the low-level cold front has yet to make the trek across Lake Ontario, we have obviously yet to see any significant development downwind of Ontario. Guidance suggests that this should change by the overnight hours as the arctic front sweeps eastward this afternoon/overnight. The models aren’t explicitly showing this, but it looks like there’s some fairly good potential along the front for some heavy squalls, especially east of I-81 as steep lapse rates and additional upslope may provide a quick burst, leading to some minor accumulations.

Lake-effect should gradually develop overnight tonight, though there is quite a bit of shear near the top of the boundary layer initially tonight. I think there’s also potential for the Erie band to feed into Lake Ontario overnight, though getting the flow perfectly aligned for that setup is a little more complicated to predict. Either way, lake-effect should first develop near/north of Watertown with 240° winds through the morning hours on Wednesday. Winds very slowly shift a little bit further south through the afternoon Wednesday, with very well-aligned flow and deep moisture suggesting >2-3”/hr. rates seem likely at times, especially if the Erie-Ontario connection can happen.

A mid-level shortwave moves through the area Wednesday evening, which will briefly disrupt the flow to become more westerly, similarly to Lake Erie (albeit a few hours earlier). This should shove the band down towards the Tug Hill for at least a brief period Wednesday evening/overnight. Forecast gets a little bit more complicated as a little bit of shear through the boundary layer makes it a bit tougher to guess the exact position of the band through Wednesday night. BUFKIT suggests this setups up somewhere between Redfield and perhaps just south of Watertown. Previous experience leads me to guess southern Jefferson/northern Lewis counties with a 260° wind, where a 270 wind seems to be more of the Oswego/Jefferson county line.

Winds will again gradually shift towards the WNW from Thursday morning into Friday, though inversion heights decrease and moisture becomes a little bit harder to get. However, EL’s of 6-10kft should be plenty to generate heavy snow.

Snow growth potential looks a little bit better of Ontario, as I assume the lake surface is at least slightly warmer than Erie, and I’d almost assume its closer to 37-39F, and there seems to be at least a shallow DGZ near the surface through most of the event. Some of the soundings the NAM and 3km NAM spit out are rather incredible, but we’ll have to see how they play out. The same concerns I have off Lake Erie are concerns for Ontario as well, but I think Ontario is primed for likely it’s biggest event of the season.

Map below, but for Erie:

KBUF: 20”

Dunkirk: 18”

Hamburg: 29”

Batavia: 16”

2019_LESMap_Updated.thumb.png.912e0c48fab7e0469778f91e665110d3.png

 

Feel free to ask any other thoughts. Since I’m in the icebox that is Iowa, I have a decent amount of free time over the next couple days.

Edit: Uploaded the old map from last night, new one attached. 

 

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11 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Wow that band is absolutely cranking and consolidating right over the northtowns. From the north side of the city to Tonawanda and N. Amherst are getting raked!!

Heavy snow here, very impressive flake size too so it's piling up nicely.  Closing in on our 4" forecast total for the day already...

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26 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Yeah, I thought it looked fishy to have a WSW stop right before Monroe Cty. with no advisory.

There is a significant elevation drop from Genessee county into Monroe.  That little downslope just annihilates the Erie band right as it enter Monroe.  I've watched it happen 20 times over the past 15 years.   We've been known to scrape out a couple inches which would be more than enough to keep me happy... Even snow in the air would be better than the nothing we've gotten the last week or so.  

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13 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Wow that band is absolutely cranking and consolidating right over the northtowns. From the north side of the city to Tonawanda and N. Amherst are getting raked!!

So far this is the kind of Northtowns crusher I've been hoping for. Fingers crossed that the band has residence in the area through the night.

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yeah, and it has never once verified.  This is something I stand very firmly on, especially being a west side of the county observer.  I'd take an inch though, we are desperate in this shit pattern.  haha

Delta, I love your style! 100% bro. NWS pulls this sh.t every season. 

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yeah, and it has never once verified.  This is something I stand very firmly on, especially being a west side of the county observer.  I'd take an inch though, we are desperate in this shit pattern.  haha

It sure has verified before. I have got 3 4 inches in walworth from Erie. 

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5 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

Meant to type something up last night… but I guess this will have to do. I’ve been away from the LES action for a little bit so take it with a grain of salt.

I’m fully on board for a pretty significant event for BUF and for a large portion of Watertown/Tug Hill through Friday. I still think that ice chart that was posted the other day is fairly inaccurate. Based on the few pieces of the lake we can see right now, it seems to be more open than that map or the one from the National Ice Center seems to suggest.

Off Erie…

Lake effect has already developed a little quicker than expected right now, and an intense singular band appears to be organizing. This isn’t terribly unsurprising, given the 850mb front just passed over Lake Erie and winds are beginning to become better aligned. As temperatures continue to crash and boundary layer winds slacken a little bit through the afternoon, I see no reason that additional organization should continue throughout the day. Boundary layer winds are fairly unidirectional at about around 240°, which should put BUF in or just south the heart of LES through the day. While Lake-induced equilibrium heights only hover around 6-10kft the boundary layer does deepen significantly through the day. We also have fairly good snow growth potential today, as the DGZ still is within the cloud layer through at least the early overnight hours and also evidenced by some recent observations of dendrites falling in the heavier portions of the band.

Overnight, temperatures continue to fall and the boundary layer deepens to at least 700mb, as EL’s grow to 10-13kft, with LI CAPE profiles >1000J/kg. Boundary layer winds are very well aligned, though gradually shift from 240-250°. With the dendritic growth zone gradually be pushed down to the surface, it’s hard to expect extremely high ratio snow to continue, though there is just enough lift off the surface that there should be at least some snow growth to work with. Additionally, soundings suggest the potential for rather strong surface winds >20kts, which, combined with finer flakes and already significant accumulations, should lead to blizzard or near blizzard conditions. If LES develops as expected, I would not be surprised to see blizzard warnings for the BUF metro, especially if this continues into the rush hour traffic on Wednesday morning.

Same story continues Wednesday as lake-effect gradually slides south of the metro and towards southern Erie/northern Chautauqua/northern Wyoming/Genesee counties. Most of Wednesday looks to be heavy snow… though with variation in the overall band orientation should limit totals. There should still be a well organized, heavy lake-effect band as boundary layer depths reach about 650mb with 1500J/kg LI CAPE and ELs approaching 15kft. If some of the areas hit today/tonight can get into the action again, I could see totals approaching 30-36” (that’s not my actual forecast). Wednesday night through Thursday EL’s gradually decrease and boundary layer depth also decreases a bit as the best cold air move out of the area, with the same general areas seeing additional accumulating snow.

I do still have a few concerns that could limit this from being one of the “big ones”. How does limited snow growth potential limit snowfall rates? How do relatively strong boundary layer winds affect lake effect organization (and again), snowfall rates? While both of these factors are likely to increase the blizzard potential from the event, it may limit overall totals, especially in the latter half of the event. Another question I have is if this band can manage to impact Rochester as well - I have them in lower totals right now but I could see 6-12" amounts if things line up perfectly.

Off Ontario…

As the low-level cold front has yet to make the trek across Lake Ontario, we have obviously yet to see any significant development downwind of Ontario. Guidance suggests that this should change by the overnight hours as the arctic front sweeps eastward this afternoon/overnight. The models aren’t explicitly showing this, but it looks like there’s some fairly good potential along the front for some heavy squalls, especially east of I-81 as steep lapse rates and additional upslope may provide a quick burst, leading to some minor accumulations.

Lake-effect should gradually develop overnight tonight, though there is quite a bit of shear near the top of the boundary layer initially tonight. I think there’s also potential for the Erie band to feed into Lake Ontario overnight, though getting the flow perfectly aligned for that setup is a little more complicated to predict. Either way, lake-effect should first develop near/north of Watertown with 240° winds through the morning hours on Wednesday. Winds very slowly shift a little bit further south through the afternoon Wednesday, with very well-aligned flow and deep moisture suggesting >2-3”/hr. rates seem likely at times, especially if the Erie-Ontario connection can happen.

A mid-level shortwave moves through the area Wednesday evening, which will briefly disrupt the flow to become more westerly, similarly to Lake Erie (albeit a few hours earlier). This should shove the band down towards the Tug Hill for at least a brief period Wednesday evening/overnight. Forecast gets a little bit more complicated as a little bit of shear through the boundary layer makes it a bit tougher to guess the exact position of the band through Wednesday night. BUFKIT suggests this setups up somewhere between Redfield and perhaps just south of Watertown. Previous experience leads me to guess southern Jefferson/northern Lewis counties with a 260° wind, where a 270 wind seems to be more of the Oswego/Jefferson county line.

Winds will again gradually shift towards the WNW from Thursday morning into Friday, though inversion heights decrease and moisture becomes a little bit harder to get. However, EL’s of 6-10kft should be plenty to generate heavy snow.

Snow growth potential looks a little bit better of Ontario, as I assume the lake surface is at least slightly warmer than Erie, and I’d almost assume its closer to 37-39F, and there seems to be at least a shallow DGZ near the surface through most of the event. Some of the soundings the NAM and 3km NAM spit out are rather incredible, but we’ll have to see how they play out. The same concerns I have off Lake Erie are concerns for Ontario as well, but I think Ontario is primed for likely it’s biggest event of the season.

Map below, but for Erie:

KBUF: 20”

Dunkirk: 18”

Hamburg: 29”

Batavia: 16”

2019_LESMap.thumb.png.4861e904d508b120fa80cbe30ed5690f.png

Feel free to ask any other thoughts. Since I’m in the icebox that is Iowa, I have a decent amount of free time over the next couple days.

 

Wow, this is fantastic, Thank You! Can you post your map for Erie? Also, what are your thoughts on the lake ice increasing on Erie during tomorrow and Thursday? Any possible thunder in the bands? 

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