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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

GFS is much further North than 00Z NAM FWIW

Yeah this  0z run was a huge step in the wrong direction for all of next week.  For ****s sake...

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Teleconnections for our area are just horrible, that simple!  The only thing we got going for ourselves is a solidly negative EPO which IMO is being trumped by the persistent -PNA and a super +AO which doesn't change for the foreseeable future. OH and the NAO is solidly +, what else is new, lol!

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Already a high wind warning posted 48 hours out...

A major storm system will impact the region this period...with high
winds, potential for lake shore flooding east of both lakes, and
accumulating lake effect snow to close out the period.

Headline changes...we will upgrade the high wind watch to a warning
for the entire region as confidence remains high for very strong
wind gusts. Model consistency, comparison to previous high wind
events and a climatological favored track for high winds supports
the decision to upgrade. A lake shore flood watch has been expanded
to Jefferson and Oswego Counties where high waves crashing into the
shoreline may cause beach erosion, and if the ice sheet on the
northeast end of the lake becomes dislodged in the high winds...high
waves may push into the Bays of Jefferson County. Also a northwest
wind Sunday night and Monday may shift the ice sheet southward along
the Oswego coastline, possibly creating an ice jam for creeks and
streams that empty into the Lake.

The 00Z models continue to track a deepening, and anomalously deep
low across Lake Michigan and near the SOO Saturday night and Sunday,
with a 65 to 75 knot LLJ passing across the region Sunday and Sunday
night. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF as well as the Canadian model all
deepen this low to around 971 to 972 mb Sunday evening.

This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 hPa
temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees Celsius through the day),
forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail
(down to near 500 hPa) across the region will transport very strong
winds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in the
late morning hours and continuing through Sunday night. As the 1.5
PV tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon behind a strong cold
front, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow dipping below 1K
feet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75 mph downwind of
Lake Erie and across the Lake Plain. Several past high wind events
have shown up in the CIPS analogs, including high wind events of Feb
10th 2001, Feb 1 2002, Jan 9 2008. The Jan 9th event at the surface
looks similar to this, with a surface low tracking across the SOO
that deepens to around 971 mb. One difference is the surface high
building across the Plains is stronger for our event Sunday...which
will bring a tighter pressure gradient supporting confidence that
wind gusts 65 to 75 mph will be possible.

As the cold front crosses the region Sunday wind gusts will quickly
strengthen from west to east, with damaging west-southwest gusts
howling across the region. The strongest winds are expected Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. What will also make this wind event
concerning will be the prolonged period of damaging winds...with
gusts over 60 mph possible for a 12 to 18 hour period. This lengthy
period of winds battering the region could increase the severity of
the wind event. Strong winds will persist into Sunday night, this
more of a west to west-northwest direction as the surface low tracks
across southern Quebec.



.

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Lol...the long range is riddled with cutters...even on the New GFS. Absolutely no end to the pattern we have been stuck in.

The flow is so extremely progressive we can't get anything to stall out and start forming a new pattern.

My call is whatever we get off the lakes Monday and Tuesday will not be impressive due to the strong winds shearing things out. Plus, best moisture will probably be blown to Herkimer county.

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