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Westerly flow is just not as long lasting as i assumed, u can see a lot of this from the lake effect archives..

Best events are long duration with oscillating bands that pass through several times lol

But they sure can pack a punch..

Couple events from last year..

Snowfall rates are estimated to have 
peaked around 3 inches per hour Monday morning judging from NY State 
Mesonet webcams and snow stakes. Some thunder snow was also noted 
over the Tug Hill around mid-day Monday, just before the lake effect 
plume began to weaken. By the time the snow plume quickly diminished 
Monday afternoon, up to a foot of snow had fallen across southern 
and central portions of the Tug Hill in just a few hours Monday 
morning.
Given the high snowfall rates produced off of both lakes, including 
over metro Buffalo during the evening commute, as well as max 
accumulations over 2 feet over the southern Tug Hill in less than 12 
hours, this event earns 3 flakes ***
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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

There must be something wrong with the models as they show two low pressure centers going south of us before the next 26 consecutive rain storms. That can't be right!? 

The system in the Sunday-Monday time frame looks good on the GFS with a short stint of NW LE on the back side. CMC is looking good as well, just a bit slower/suppressed/weaker.

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Another muted event with the lake out of play. Man if we would have gotten into this pattern a month sooner we would have mountains of snow in BUF metro. Frozen lake and we still have a band trying to setup through the city. This is I believe the third time in the past two weeks we have had a WSW-SW flow setup but no lake to work with...

2db8dd67b362c28d7f2046fa9e934f06.gif


.

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22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I actually enjoy these types of events it's better then being cold and dry missing everything to the south..

The problem is getting these primary's to weaken in time lol

You enjoy cold rain events with nuisance snow and nasty flash freezes afterwards?  GTFO, no one likes this horrible weather.  Utterly useless for nearly everything. 

But hey, at least someone is happy about this nonsense I guess.  

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6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

You enjoy cold rain events with nuisance snow and nasty flash freezes afterwards?  GTFO, no one likes this horrible weather.  Utterly useless for nearly everything. 

But hey, at least someone is happy about this nonsense I guess.  

Does somebody need a hug?

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8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

You enjoy cold rain events with nuisance snow and nasty flash freezes afterwards?  GTFO, no one likes this horrible weather.  Utterly useless for nearly everything. 

But hey, at least someone is happy about this nonsense I guess.  

Hey those two models are as credible as a sales person from Attica university. The GFS and the Euro show a decent event for next Monday and Tues...not gonna worry about the GEM or the ICON

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Overachiever!  lol...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
243 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019

NYZ001>003-010-011-013-021-140345-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190214T0600Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Buffalo, Batavia, Geneseo, and Wellsville
243 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to
  2 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as
  high as 50 mph. This may bring short bursts of whiteout
  conditions.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee,
  Livingston, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
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Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Overachiever!  lol...


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
243 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019

NYZ001>003-010-011-013-021-140345-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190214T0600Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Buffalo, Batavia, Geneseo, and Wellsville
243 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to
  2 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as
  high as 50 mph. This may bring short bursts of whiteout
  conditions.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee,
  Livingston, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Even have S+ in Ontario now.

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Just like gtfo when it come to wind, who the fook has fetishes over wind?

Does absolutely nothing but make it feel colder, impossible to measure and causes extensive property damage...

Really irks me when people think their opinions matter more then others..

 

Whoa, relax man.  I was just surprised to hear someone say they like a cold rain; which is commonly seen as one of the more vile weather setups.  A lot of really sensitive people around here as of late.  And ****ing hell, I didnt say my opinion mattered more, you perceived it that way.  I think you could have countered my argument without getting nasty.  

As for wind, I truly find it to be one of the most interesting and amazing phenomena of all the weather.  You can feel the power and hear the roar of one of the most powerful forces on the planet and you realize that all of the air around you is literally being sucked away by a storm a thousand miles away, its utterly amazing.  Also, hearing gusts of winds slowly build  and realizing that a huge invisible turbulent eddy is being drawn towards the surface is incredible.  I'm really surprised people don't enjoy wind more. It's one of the more tangible examples of the pressure differences on the planet, while also being invisible at the same time which is pretty cool.  Side note - You can enjoy hearing and seeing wind without being cold. 

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Just like gtfo when it come to wind, who the fook has fetishes over wind?

Does absolutely nothing but make it feel colder, impossible to measure and causes extensive property damage...

Really irks me when people think their opinions matter more then others..

 

Also, you'll be happy to know that during the awesome wind event last Thursday night.  A big branch smashed my new truck causing 1200 dollars of damage yet I still love the wind and wish it was even windier that night.  I'm a glutton.  

IMG_3036.thumb.JPG.bb068ac850075d1303c29900f9b2f629.JPG

IMG_3033.thumb.JPG.a438e43b69eb96ded6ae3b0d1d4b2311.JPG

IMG_3034.thumb.JPG.25f2bd3e3533c2ee9affaf3cbf0ab209.JPG

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3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Also, you'll be happy to know that during the awesome wind event last Thursday night.  A big branch smashed my new truck causing 1200 dollars of damage yet I still love the wind and wish it was even windier that night.  I'm a glutton.  

IMG_3036.thumb.JPG.bb068ac850075d1303c29900f9b2f629.JPG

IMG_3033.thumb.JPG.a438e43b69eb96ded6ae3b0d1d4b2311.JPG

IMG_3034.thumb.JPG.25f2bd3e3533c2ee9affaf3cbf0ab209.JPG

A glutton for property damage! LOL. I like the wind as well...it's powerfully invisible and scares a lot of people!

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1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

You’re lucky that’s only $1200 worth of damage. Are they able to fix it without having to repaint your hood?

Insurance wants to replace the whole hood rather than attempt to repair.  1200 dollars is cost to replace and paint match. 

I'm not even sure I'm going to fix it, might just wear it like a badge of honor.   The paint didnt chip or scratch so it shouldnt rust.  

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