vortmax Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Great flake quality here with heavy snow but the end is already in sight. You can see it on radar as the warmth surges North. All eyes on these thicknesses today. Wouldn't it be great to have, just once, a surprise where the cold air hangs strong along the S shore and we get hammered. LOL. I remember a Miller B, a long time ago, where the E/NE winds continued (the front obviously didn't make it as far north as expected). Got walloped. Here's to hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 10 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: These models don't seem to have gotten any better over the years. 12Z Canadian showed a great amount of snow for Upstate. Now? Like a third of that. What is the point of even following them... I think the models in general have been phenomenal as of late. You can pretty much lock a storm or setup 10 days out now (obviously lacking some fine details). The last 3 or 4 "events" we have had were more or less locked 10 to even 14 days out. They are actually taking the fun out of weather for me. There are no surprises anymore.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think the models in general have been phenomenal as of late. You can pretty much lock a storm or setup 10 days out now (obviously lacking some fine details). The last 3 or 4 "events" we have had were more or less locked 10 to even 14 days out. They are actually taking the fun out of weather for me. There are no surprises anymore.... Couldn’t agree more. With synoptic, there really aren’t surprises anymore. You take a consensus, cut snow totals by a bit, and that’s that. Hey, how was your ski trip? Mine turned out ok. They know how to deal with horrible conditions at Killington. My friends each drank about 20 beers per day (probably 30 last day) so that was interesting. I no longer drink... I too am thinking one last trip out west. Where are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 It’s getting pretty nasty outside. Heavy snow and gusty winds, the temperature has fallen to 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I’m surprised the airport (Ksyr) is only reporting 1/2 mile visibility. It’s definitely less here, snow has to be falling at an inch per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Good little dump in Roc. But here comes the taint. Easily visible on radar. You can see the pivot point over all of WNY. Be hard pressed to get to 3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Easy 1-1.5"/hr as we're getting absolutely hammered here North of the City! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Flake size has definitely increased. It actually looks like a snowstorm out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Flake size has increased dramatically the past half hr or so and if it continues like this for 8-10 hrs, I can easily see close to a foot falling especially across the Tug where it should start snowing real soon and continue through tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Yes for the first time this yr, it actually looks like a snowstorm out there, but too bad it took till February for it to happen, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 This is just the beginning for us CNY so finally we can enjoy one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I hope this can last through the afternoon but I get nervous when I see the taint line already through Elmira and Dansville and approaching Rochester. NAM has us switching about 3 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Nws also has the changeover between 2-4 pm, which is what the majority of guidance shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 It pushed it back by an hr I heard, lol, so we'll see but even with the changeover, by then most of the deep moisture is behind us so I'm not too concerned, YET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Completely changed over to freezing rain and sleet in ROC. Got about 1.5 inches of snow before the changeover took place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Wow. Rippage in Skaneateles. Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I definitely don't like that bright banding that just entered the picture down across the Eastern Finger Lakes and its moving ENE at a rapid pace so if we do happen to go over to IP/ZR earlier we're toast once again, lol! Gotta love the winter of 2018-19! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Wow. Rippage in Skaneateles. Solid. oh thats great news for sure cause thats where the bright banding is, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 This is like being in a lake band! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Yep, incredible rates with winds whipping it about, a tru tru snowstorm for once this yr, wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Over to frz rn in N ROC. 3.2”. I was TOO AGGRESSIVE with my 4” call. And to think of all the crap I took yesterday. Lol Good luck in the north country. That pivot point isn’t super far North. My gut says it’s far enough north...unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: oh thats great news for sure cause thats where the bright banding is, lol! I was nervous too but it’s all snow so far at 30+ dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Gonna try and time a snow blow to keep the weight down. Hoping we snow to the lull/dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Vis has got to be down to an 1/8 - 1/4 of a mile if that with the blowing and drifting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 By the time we mix, the true deep deep moisture will be long gone then we have to wait for the reach around if there is any! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I don't think there's one person who doesn't think or didn't know we're going over to a mix sooner or later so it won't be a surprise when it does, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: By the time we mix, the true deep deep moisture will be long gone then we have to wait for the reach around if there is any! Eloquently put. lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Visibility is about 1/8 mile here. Let’s hold onto this as long as we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Heaviest non lake-effect snow of the winter imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now