CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 You see the RGEM, yuk, lol, but its still way out of its range so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Yeah, the mesos don't look good at all. Might as well expect the least...One thing that has been consistent this winter is the warm air rushing in with these systems...and lower snowfall totals than expected. No point getting excited for a possible foot of snow until it is actually on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The overall biggest correction appears to be to the 12Z NAM which is hundreds of miles farther south with its low track involving the Midwest compared to yesterday's 12Z run. Today's 12Z NAM though is a somewhat stronger outlier with energy it has ejecting through the base of the trough Monday and into Tuesday which leads to a rather well-defined 500/700 mb deformation zone and closed low feature crossing southern MO through central/southern IL. The global models are a little more modest with this by comparison. Bigger differences arise though as the heights falls shift across the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday along with secondary low pressure that forms near or along the northern Mid-Atlantic coast and lifts northeast near coastal New England. The 12Z NAM/GFS and 12Z UKMET all tend to focus the stronger height falls a bit east of the 12Z ECMWF and even more so the 12Z CMC which gradually ends up slower with its upper trough progression. This translates into a surface low track that especially by 48 hours and beyond is farther south and east relative to the track over the lower Great Lakes. The 12Z GEFS mean is close to the NAM/GFS camp, and suggests that the UKMET may be a bit too far south and east, but that the CMC and ECMWF are too far to the north and west. Regarding the secondary low evolution, the 12Z CMC is the biggest outlier as it focuses its low much farther inland over the Northeast whereas the remaining guidance all focuses secondary low development and track much closer to the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England coastline or just inland of the coast through Wednesday. Given the latest model clustering and trends, the preference will be toward a general model blend through 48 hours, and then leaning toward a compromise of the 12Z NAM/GFS and also incorporating the 12Z GEFS mean thereafter. One key point again though is that the NAM is a bit of an outlier with its stronger deformation zone/height falls across southern MO and central/southern IL which is generally in the 48 to 60 hour time period. Confidence, especially after 48 hours remains a bit limited but is rather good now prior to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Nam really wasn't that bad.. Yea we flip quicker with less intial snow but makes up for it with some nice enhancement ,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just to show kuchera doesn't always over do everything, ksyr is at 4.4" at 10-1 and 3.7" Kuchera.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I am not counting on the lake to do squat right now. Been burned way too many times this season. Lol Interesting thing is BGM went with the NAM discussing how it is better at picking up on warm layers, which is what I had been thinking before even looking at their disco. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Ice accums on euro?. Anyone got map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 And yet they have double digits by wed morning without the lake getting involved yet lol It's also easier counting on the lake with enhancement/wrap around then with pure lake effect..At least for me.. Gfs and euro keep it going until early thursday afternoon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Roc is certainly a real close call on this one. Pounding rain or the heaviest wettest snow ever. I remember a track like this about 5 years ago where we were supposed to flip rain but it never happened. Certainly don't feel all that optimistic in my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Look at this winters track record and then place hope on this tracking SE or colder. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Look at this winters track record and then place hope on this tracking SE or colder. Lol Exactly! That's exactly what I said. The Southeast ridge has been relentless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I haven’t been tracking but a LP track NW of Detroit is bad news for WNY. Front end thump? I’m suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: I haven’t been tracking but a LP track NW of Detroit is bad news for WNY. Front end thump? I’m suspicious. It occludes over Michigan, which should decrease amount of warmth and how far north it makes it. The sooner and farther south it occludes, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I don’t see a good secondary to lock in. Everything’s been progressive and NW. Figure on everything being shunted NE by 100 miles and call it a winter. So tired of this crap winter. The numbers lie. Rochester’s 62” feels like 30”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Where have we seen this before haha The Nam has a quick 5"-6" Tuesday afternoon similar to the euro before flipping to sleet and then back to snow.. One thing I have noticed is even with the secondary becoming the primary the lakes low is not in hurry to leave, has more effect on the wind field then the coastal storm does.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Of course it does. Getting snow during such an active winter has been a hassle. Then getting what does fall to actually stay around has been just as difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Going to be a sharp cutoff no doubt, right now we have 30-40 mile window on the euro.. 18z at 10-1 We also see a good amount more precipitation which obviously explains some of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Way too close for comfort. Take that line up to Watertown across to Burlington. I know I am being pessimistic, but this crap winter pattern has been hard to break. Often times the mix line makes it farther north than projected, so we will see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Freezing rain map? That's alot of precip that's not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Anything in light blue is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I’m even sick of hearing my own pessimistic tone. I can’t imagine how horrible I must sound to others. Lol. Christ. Can I block myself? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Nam looks like alot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Seen this track set up before the farther nw that primary goes the better. Sooner it cuts off warm push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Kinda silly wny is at least not in a watch. Imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m even sick of hearing my own pessimistic tone. I can’t imagine how horrible I must sound to others. Lol. Christ. Can I block myself? Lol...I haven't checked out the New England forum..they've gotta be gnashing teeth in Southern parts. An optimist says, "Oh, it will get better..." A pessimist says, "Screw that. I have been waiting 3 months and it has been the same garbage." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 So much of that precip is on the back side lol We only see 5"-6" from the primary low.. Wether u wanna believe the amounts or not is up to you but that is 100% snow with the secondary/enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: So much of that precip is on the back side lol We only see 5"-6" from the primary low.. Wether u wanna believe the amount or not is up to you but that is 100% snow with the secondary/enhancement.. Oh, yay...wait another additional couple days for the models to change to crap.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Whew....I didn't realize that The Finger Lakes got downsloped so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Speaking of downsloping, the HRWs are showing it....over....Oswego county. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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