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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Bummer. Fakeout!

Maybe you got it and the wind blew it to Brewerton? :P

Could be!  It’s snowing heavily here right now. Unfortunately it looks like the band is settling to the south and I’ll be out of it pretty soon. Eyeballing it it looks like 2-3 inches so far. 

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I hate to say but it seems west wind is a transition zone lol

According to the rose plots it's the least likely wind direction..We are just the passer by for WSW and WNW lol I think a straight west wind happens 3.5% of the time, almost always a northern/southern component to it .

 

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The euro was MEH..

Few inches of snow with quite bit of ice..

It's the wrap around/enhancement that has the best shot for anything decent. 

download (33).png

download (34).png

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It’s looking like the secondary will be too weak too late to keep the cold air locked in at mid levels. The system for late week looks even warmer. 

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Lake effect snow is expected to re-develop tonight. This may bring
moderate accumulations, especially near the lake in the western
portion of the county.

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Suprised to see all snow forecasted at the moment :whistle:

Tuesday
Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
Snow. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Wednesday
Snow showers. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday Night
Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%

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Latest high-res
guidance suggests the eastern end of this band will come onshore
across Oswego and Northern Cayuga counties, producing local
accumulating snow. These types of bands often drop their heaviest
snow right near the shoreline given the strong land breeze forcing,
and can have notoriously high snow-water ratios. That said, in the
weak flow environment there is always a good deal of uncertainty as
to whether the heavy snow will fall over the lake or just onshore.

Given this uncertainty, have not raised any additional headlines
yet, but did increase POPS and snow amounts to 3-6 inches in a small
area from Fair Haven to Oswego for tonight. If the heavier portion
of the band stays offshore, amounts will be lower. On the flip side,
if the heaviest portion of the band extends to the shoreline for an
extended period of time, warning criteria amounts are within the
realm of possibility.

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15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Wow Fulton really cleans up with that WNW flow lol

Sharp cutoff as usual..

2019&cp=0

I’m the 3.3 just across the county line on 0.15 LE so just a little more than 20:1. Wonder what Freak got?

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Fulton must of seen most of its accumulation early on while the band was consolidated..

I can't see them getting a foot overnight with an overnight radar like this ..

us_radarus-en-087-0_2019_02_09_3586_KTYX_360_070400.png

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3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

I hate to say but it seems west wind is a transition zone lol

According to the rose plots it's the least likely wind direction..We are just the passer by for WSW and WNW lol I think a straight west wind happens 3.5% of the time, almost always a northern/southern component to it .

 

How on earth does Redfield receive all of its average snowfall then? Locals insist we normally get dumped on, but every wind direction has been a huge fail. I really am baffled.

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Who know man lol Just been a tough year..

This year definitely feels like a transition zone lol

The tug has a multitude of ways to score..Every few winters we get one of these stinkers..

I expect to see more of this in the future which is more typycal of a normal winter..

2016-2017_snow.png

 

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That's what I was expecting winter to look like! This year it has been on both sides of that core. Lol

12Z NAM looking like snow to ice with a wimpy secondary. This could be a sleet special.

Anybody want to take bets on how much snow we score? Rainer quickly on its heels for Friday.

 

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Here is the euro by wed morning, not including any enhancement/LES..

Still switching us to a decent amount of ice and then back to snow..

Shows enhancement like crap which is not surprising..

download (67).png

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Maybe now I can melt the ice skating rink also known as my driveway..lol

At this just juncture I couldn't care less about snow depth, just looking for one big synoptic event, would love a big march wet snowstorm ..

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