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Yep so the Euro is definitely trending colder in line with the FV3 and I'll say it, the CMC, lol!  On the Euro we mix for about 2-4hrs, perhaps a mix rn/ip for a time then right back to snow!.. Cuse see's 6-8" while Fulton and I see close to a foot, lol but I think that continues to drop South with subsequent runs as I think the Euro is now seeing the airmass thats directly to ouyr N&W

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13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Could be some 20" amounts in there given ratios on the backside..

 

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Dude we need to get that snowline to drop at leasts 25 miles or so and we'd all be happy but thats a nasty snow cutoff because of the amount of warm air so I hope it trends a bit colder the next couple days so we'll see.

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Our next storm system is currently seen on Water Vapor imagery
dropping southward over the northern California coastline.
The closed upper level low will dip southward along the California
shoreline today, and then advance across the Rockies and
Plains early next week. Another shortwave will phase with this low
Monday, deepening and negatively tilting the upper level longwave
trough. This upper level long wave trough will deepen a surface
low that will again cut through the Great Lakes region.

Tuesday will start on the cold side with advancing precipitation
starting as all snow late Monday night and Tuesday morning. A
primary low will pass through the Eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and
Tuesday night, moderating temperatures to above freezing for most of
the area. This will change the snow/possible wintry mix over to
plain rain later Tuesday and Tuesday night for much of WNY. A
secondary lee side low will form off the Delmarva Peninsula Tuesday
night and as this secondary low deepens, the primary surface low to
the north of Lake Ontario will begin to weaken. This will limit the
northward push of milder air such that precipitation southeast
and east of Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night may remain as
all snow, or just mix with a few hours of sleet/rain. Here is where
confidence is high enough that there will be potential for
significant synoptic snows and will issue a winter storm watch
starting 11Z Tuesday.

Cold air will wrap back across our region later Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and change precipitation back over to all snow. The
closed upper level low will remain across southern Canada and a
persistent flow of moist, westerly flow will likely continue light
snow Wednesday, with greatest accumulations across upslope
areas...and later in the day lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario.
With modest snowfall continuing Wednesday and into Wednesday evening
we will continue the winter storm watch through Wednesday evening.
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KBGM basically the same, cold air doesn't make it before the parent LP occludes, lol!

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Oneida, Cayuga,
Onondaga, Madison, Cortland, Chenango and Otsego Counties in
CNY.

Monday night snow moves in from the southwest into the central
southern tier and NEPA after midnight, then the rest of the area
Tuesday morning. Snowfall rates could be heavy with deep moisture
and lift into the dendrite zone. This enhanced rates will be a few
hours into the event and well ahead of a warm front. Potential for 3
to 6 inches of snow in south central NY and NEPA before a changeover
to sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon. A coating of ice is
likely before temperatures warm enough. Further north precipitation
will stay snow longer so amounts should be higher. Have issued a
winter storm watch for Tuesday and Tuesday night first for 5 to 9
inches of snow followed by around a tenth of an inch of freezing
rain. Temperatures north of I88 and east of I81 may not get above
freezing until Wednesday morning close to the occluded front. The
main low will pass to the west of the area.

For temperatures a wide range of temperatures Monday night with
single digits in Oneida County to low 20s along the Susquehanna
River in NEPA. Tuesday highs from mid 30s west to around 30 far
east. Tuesday night lows mid 20s far east to around 30 west.
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February can be a very decent month snowfall wise if it keeps going like this because the first event this week should be a pretty much all snow event for the North Country including Oswego County and Onondaga County for that matter then the one after that I do believe that was going to come further east and give us more of a mixed bag as opposed to more liquid so we'll see how that works out but we got to get through this first event. The one thing that certain it's definitely an extremely busy pattern

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31 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Don't ask me how but I just measured five brand new inches in the front of my house in my driveway because the snow has just been falling straight down no wind component at all to the lake effect spray that's coming in off Lake Ontario but nice big fat dendrites keep falling

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I measured 1.4 inches of snow of a density so low you can look through it and see the surface it’s on. The liquid equivalent is 0.03 which gives a ratio of 46.67:1. Like I said last night you can use a leaf blower to clear it. 

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30 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I measured 1.4 inches of snow of a density so low you can look through it and see the surface it’s on. The liquid equivalent is 0.03 which gives a ratio of 46.67:1. Like I said last night you can use a leaf blower to clear it. 

 

19 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Almost 50 to one that's just straight nuts

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The second the sun peeks out that stuff is gone. :P

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