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Impressive disc snippet regarding wind potential:

Ahead of the system, rainfall really blossoms in warm advection,
however the apex of this seems to largely be north of the area, but
with the density discontinuity noted along the front vis-a-vis 850
mb temperature falls from +12C to -6C over a span of 12 hours on
Sunday, it would be rather amazing if it failed to rain along the
cold front, even with the best forcing to our north. That said, the
rainfall will not be the main event with this system. In its wake,
the occluding upper level low will drive a mid-level dry slot and
associated tropopause fold through the area from Sunday morning
onward. This is noted by a drastic drop of the dynamic tropopause
well below 700 mb across Lake Erie with an associated ribbon of
starkly drier air that penetrates down toward 800 mb signifying some
sort of stratospheric intrusion. That said, this will work to
essentially shove all atmospheric momentum below this level and
likewise allow for the development of a post-frontal 75+ knot low
level jet. The progression of this feature through the area is
utterly crushing both in terms of the synoptic features driving it
as well as the fact it will be coming through during a diurnally
favorable period of mixing out to the surface. Further, substantial
drying aloft due to the tropopause fold may yield a period of sun
concurrent with its passage. This would only further enhance the
mixing potential. That said, bufkit momentum transfer suggests in
excess of 60 kts (70+ mph) is possible along the Lake Erie shore,
through Buffalo, Rochester, and into Watertown. Even elsewhere,
where high wind gusts are far less frequent, very strong winds will
also be possible given this method. That said, a high wind watch was
issued for the entire area.
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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

For the mid week system the euro is the southern outlier at the moment..

Bringing it from wisconsin to VA lol As it squashes the crap out of it..

We will get missed to the north or south. This flipping pattern ALL winter... still waiting on the blockbuster LES event everybody promised... :P

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4 hours ago, WNash said:

It's not for everybody, and definitely not for me, but I respect the honesty. I get more annoyed when thrillseekers pretend that they're doing storm chasing for science or whatever. In some cases, the videos can be useful for storm analysis. Morgerman spends big for travel and for equipment. Undoubtedly he gathers data that can't be obtained elsewhere and there is no way that selling his videos comes close to making that money back - he reminds me a bit of Richard Dreyfuss' character Hooper in Jaws, who owns his own damn scientific research vessel because he has $$$. But fundamentally people are doing it for the thrills, and it takes a lot of ego to say otherwise (and Morgerman, who without met training claims to "reanalyze" historic storms, always to lower them below the level of storms he has personally experienced, does not lack for ego).

I’m all for the thrill chasers. I love the footage they grab. Yep. They do it for the rush- so what!?! I can’t stand the self righteous attitude of the scolders and nannies. 

It’s your life and you should be able to risk or not risk it as you see fit. ‘Merica!!. If the rescuers don’t want to go in, when crap gets too real, I’m cool with that too. 

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New thread time BW! Really think this wind event is going to be something big. NWS has been talking it up for almost a week now and every day the forecast gets more dire. I’ve NEVER seen point and click winds this high... 3 straight hours oh hurricane force gusts. Going to be a lot of damage depending where the strongest winds setup.

29ec2b1fd9be00825fbcdf6ed63fdc46.jpg


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52 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Really looking like a big event sunday. Could be more widespread that 2017 event and that was a big one in rochester.

I agree completely.  The 2017 storm was anomalous and somewhat unexpected in my opinion.  The models must have underestimated cloud cover, subsequent mixing, and the strength of the low level jet.   We were under a high wind warning but it stuck to the general wording of 60mph with little indication of the catastrophe ahead.   We then gusted into the 80's with almost 6 hours of 60mph gusts.  I think it only affected a small corridor from Ohio through WNY, at least in regards to bad damage; so that is much different than this upcoming full latitude system.  This storm would be an extremely widespread event if models held serve and storm goes sub 980mb.   Local power utilities won't be moving around to help out, they will be working in their own cities.  

The Buffalo to Rochester corridor is somewhat battle hardened with a couple events above 70mph in the last decade or so, plus the usual pummeling from Lake Erie funneling on a yearly basis.  Areas further inland that are usually spared may see higher winds than they have seen in potentially 20 years.  Those places could get rocked.    

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Already a high wind warning posted 48 hours out...

A major storm system will impact the region this period...with high
winds, potential for lake shore flooding east of both lakes, and
accumulating lake effect snow to close out the period.

Headline changes...we will upgrade the high wind watch to a warning
for the entire region as confidence remains high for very strong
wind gusts. Model consistency, comparison to previous high wind
events and a climatological favored track for high winds supports
the decision to upgrade. A lake shore flood watch has been expanded
to Jefferson and Oswego Counties where high waves crashing into the
shoreline may cause beach erosion, and if the ice sheet on the
northeast end of the lake becomes dislodged in the high winds...high
waves may push into the Bays of Jefferson County. Also a northwest
wind Sunday night and Monday may shift the ice sheet southward along
the Oswego coastline, possibly creating an ice jam for creeks and
streams that empty into the Lake.

The 00Z models continue to track a deepening, and anomalously deep
low across Lake Michigan and near the SOO Saturday night and Sunday,
with a 65 to 75 knot LLJ passing across the region Sunday and Sunday
night. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF as well as the Canadian model all
deepen this low to around 971 to 972 mb Sunday evening.

This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 hPa
temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees Celsius through the day),
forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail
(down to near 500 hPa) across the region will transport very strong
winds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in the
late morning hours and continuing through Sunday night. As the 1.5
PV tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon behind a strong cold
front, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow dipping below 1K
feet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75 mph downwind of
Lake Erie and across the Lake Plain. Several past high wind events
have shown up in the CIPS analogs, including high wind events of Feb
10th 2001, Feb 1 2002, Jan 9 2008. The Jan 9th event at the surface
looks similar to this, with a surface low tracking across the SOO
that deepens to around 971 mb. One difference is the surface high
building across the Plains is stronger for our event Sunday...which
will bring a tighter pressure gradient supporting confidence that
wind gusts 65 to 75 mph will be possible.

As the cold front crosses the region Sunday wind gusts will quickly
strengthen from west to east, with damaging west-southwest gusts
howling across the region. The strongest winds are expected Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. What will also make this wind event
concerning will be the prolonged period of damaging winds...with
gusts over 60 mph possible for a 12 to 18 hour period. This lengthy
period of winds battering the region could increase the severity of
the wind event. Strong winds will persist into Sunday night, this
more of a west to west-northwest direction as the surface low tracks
across southern Quebec.



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Lol...the long range is riddled with cutters...even on the New GFS. Absolutely no end to the pattern we have been stuck in.

The flow is so extremely progressive we can't get anything to stall out and start forming a new pattern.

My call is whatever we get off the lakes Monday and Tuesday will not be impressive due to the strong winds shearing things out. Plus, best moisture will probably be blown to Herkimer county.

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