CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Actually Channel 9 has all but an inch or so falling with the front end thump. They’re only calling for an inch or so on Wednesday from snow showers in the Syracuse area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Tomorrow will be a quick 4"-6"+ and thats it, flip back to snow around 2 am and catch some preicp from the developing coastal.. Then we see what WED holds . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, CNY_WX said: Actually Channel 9 has all but an inch or so falling with the front end thump. They’re only calling for an inch or so on Wednesday from snow showers in the Syracuse area. Yeah their dead wrong about that one for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Obviously should be a little different up here.. NWS going with 5"-11" through tues night.. Wednesday Snow showers. High near 34. Southwest wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow showers. Areas of blowing snow after 2am. Low around 22. West wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Thursday Snow showers likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Its gonna snow super hard for about 4-6hrs tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 BUF- 3” ROC- 3.5” SYR- 4.5” Fulton- 6” Oswego City- 5” Tug- 9” everyone taints 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Its amazing how easy it is for a 1000mb SLP to move a 1040HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Its amazing how easy it is for a 1000mb SLP to move a 1040HP. Right!?!? How is that possible? This GD storm track is paved in stone. Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 12K pops a real nice band at the end of the run which is 10PM Wed which will probably drop a bit further South as a secondary arctic front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Right!?!? How is that possible? This GD storm track is paved in stone. Jesus its more of an orientation of the HP or shall I say the position. If all of these LP's were riding ahead of these HP's then we'd be rejoicing right now but its Breaking Bad for us as usual! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 It happens all over again in a few days but with more warm air, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The NAM runs came in looking awful for the Tug tomorrow. This winter blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The NAM runs came in looking awful for the Tug tomorrow. This winter blows. And the NAM is one of the better runs for ROC. Gives us more of the glancing blow in regards to rain, the scenario Tim mentioned. Overall its Just such a sketchy storm track and transfer. Lots of ways for it to go wrong and few to go right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The NAM runs came in looking awful for the Tug tomorrow. This winter blows. But for reference, that looks like an amazing hit from someone in my position. I think you get an easy foot out of that, probably more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: But for reference, that looks like an amazing hit from someone in my position. I think you get an easy foot out of that, probably more. Thanks. I hope you're right. Hopefully you guys can end getting the better amounts too. I think your area and the rest of the valley area around there only had that one good storm this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Thanks. I hope you're right. Hopefully you guys can end getting the better amounts too. I think your area and the rest of the valley area around there only had that one good storm this season? Only 2 storms with 8 or more inches in my backyard. 11/15/18 and 1/19/19. Definitely a slow season. And now the endless cutters. I was actually looking up flights out west to tahoe or Washington today. I need to salvage this snowboarding season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, CNY_WX said: Actually Channel 9 has all but an inch or so falling with the front end thump. They’re only calling for an inch or so on Wednesday from snow showers in the Syracuse area. I think that's right. I dont see any modeling with wraparound enhancement down here w/ primary low NW of us and minimal/late coastal development. Maybe the Tug and points N&E get that. We could pick up something extra with whatever LES develops after the synoptics pull away. I see 5, maybe 6" here with 4-6 hrs of snow...then sleet ending as occasional ZR then RN-. LES...who knows. Pencil in 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 These models don't seem to have gotten any better over the years. 12Z Canadian showed a great amount of snow for Upstate. Now? Like a third of that. What is the point of even following them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 It's a KWRT year, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 These models don't seem to have gotten any better over the years. 12Z Canadian showed a great amount of snow for Upstate. Now? Like a third of that. What is the point of even following them...All these models out there that most professionals use are just tools in a tool box and they know how and when to use which tools when necessary. Just like a carpenter uses a hammer, a Met will use the GFS. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: All these models out there that most professionals use are just tools in a tool box and they know how and when to use which tools when necessary. Just like a carpenter uses a hammer, a Met will use the GFS. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Disagree that they know when to use them. Many of them hand cuffed to the "in house" model. Politics even when it comes to weather. Good meteorologists have pattern recognition. I am going to start focusing more on meteorologists who don't put a forecast out that is exciting and over dramatic. I may be disappointed, but I am getting to a point in life where I would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed with another exciting but BUSTED forecast. I am doubtful I get between 1 and 2 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I hear ya Matt. It’s just the local pattern. I mean Toronto is having a good year as is Watertown. Hell, I think areas just to your North are having a good year. What is Carol upto now? Here in Roc our totals look good on paper (average) but I’ll tell ya, it feels like a 30” winter. With most of that coming in one good (albeit underperforming) storm. Other than that it was hard to measure nickel and dime stuff; which I believe is over measured at our airport. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 By late in the day Wednesday, the snows will settle into more of a west northwest flow lake effect regime. Ice coverage on Lake Erie will limit accumulations, but still could see local accumulations of a few inches across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. The Lake Ontario lake snows should be more impressive with additional amounts near a foot highly probable on the Tug Hill. Wind speeds will drop off but still strong enough to produce areas of blowing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I hope every forecast out there busts especially the TUG and the Cuse so we can finish in one of the top 10 least snowiest Winters! Everyone expects over a foot with every system and we all put too much stock into precip amounts and snowfall totals as they don't mean shite and almost NEVER pan out especially in and around my area!.. We're forecasted to get between 9-15" between now and Thursday Afternoon and if I get half of that I'll be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Precip has started here and it’s absolutely pounding just straight sleet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 For what we perceive as a mediocre winter, many school districts in CNY are running out of snow days. I believe Central Square just used their fifth and last one today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Precip has started here and it’s absolutely pounding just straight sleet.. Really, theres goes that snow forecast, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: For what we perceive as a mediocre winter, many school districts in CNY are running out of snow days. I believe Central Square just used their fifth and last one today. Why did they close before it started? I think a 2hr delay would of sufficed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 And the NWS increased totals lol Granted this is till thur morning instead of wed afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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