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Upstate/Eastern New York


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This has the look of a WAA thump and then mix, dry slot. I'd guess 4-6" for most, maybe 6-8" up near Tug area to north. Enhancement after?  Maybe a few inches up east of L.O. but that's about it. Wolfie and TugHillMatt may get 8-12" is my guess. Mostly a WWA event from a snow accum standpoint here. 

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41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Speaking of downsloping, the HRWs are showing it....over....Oswego county.

Lol

UM we don't downslope so thats just idiotic but whatever I guess as that's why they get thrown out the window and are never regarded as useful guidance.  Most of the meso's aren't even used during most synoptic events but everyone seems to jump on them all the time.  Alls I know is this, if I get 8" of snow with a few 1/10's of ZR then ill be happy cause we can't seem to get anything to work out this season so a 6" plowable snowfall is nice to me, lol as beggers can't be choosey!

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I gotta be honest the event after the event is gonna be the real show as we'll be hard pressed to get a few inches before we flip to whatever we flip to and then the wrap around which will amount to more than the front end thump with better dynamics, snow growth and lapse rates with a well aligned WNW-NW flow for about 18hrs.

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21 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

UM we don't downslope so thats just idiotic but whatever I guess as that's why they get thrown out the window and are never regarded as useful guidance.  Most of the meso's aren't even used during most synoptic events but everyone seems to jump on them all the time.  Alls I know is this, if I get 8" of snow with a few 1/10's of ZR then ill be happy cause we can't seem to get anything to work out this season so a 6" plowable snowfall is nice to me, lol as beggers can't be choosey!

Good point!

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I don';t even think we get to WSW but rather WWA but thats just me but this it their current thinking.

In terms of potential snowfall amounts...at this still-early juncture
it still appears that the best potential for a significant (i.e. warning-
criteria) snowfall will lie across the far eastern Finger Lakes/Eastern
Lake Ontario region and especially the North Country...where the potential
for any mix will be lowest and the briefest...and consequently the precip
should remain in the form of snow the longest...potentially leading
to total snowfall accumulations of 12 to 18 inches over a rough 24
to 36 hour period. Have thus upgraded the Winter Storm Watch for
Jefferson and Lewis counties to a Winter Storm Warning. Elsewhere...
snowfall amounts should decrease with increasing southwestward
extent owing to the progressively earlier arrival of the milder air
and the attendant wintry mix/changeover to rain...though current
projected snowfall amounts and the potential for a wintry mix of
sleet/freezing rain will still likely eventually warrant Winter
Weather Advisories.

Congrats once again KWRT and the North Country,lol, what a joke.
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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Really, when you look at what the models were showing just 24 hours ago, this is looking pathetic.

Anybody on this forum still holding out hope for a good ending to this winter, or are we pretty well spent?

I'm almost ready for some sunshine by my pool, with a nice barbeque going, a blue moon in my hand, and some good country tunes. 

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First guess:'

SKYR  4" then slop for several hrs then 2-3" on the backend so totals 4-7"

KFZY  5" then slop for several hrs the 3-4" on backend so totals 5-9"

KWRT  Heavy Snow 12-18" lolli's of 24+ with backside upslope flow, congrats Matt

KROC  1-2" then slop for most of the vent then backend snows 1-2" totals 2-4"

KBUF 2-3" snow then slop hor remainder of event without much backend anything so 1-3" 

KBGM 1-2" front end then rain then back to sn showers but no accumulation so 1-2" 

I doubt anyone see's warnings from this except places to our N&E like Northern Oneida, Herkimer and most of the Mohawk Valley and the Dacks should do fairly well with this set-up but further up in ME is where it really gets a crankin!

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Nothing but cutter after cutter on the long range so I would really except that fact that this Winter is toast and I wish we can just turn a switch and head into Spring but no dice.  The worst part is that El Nino's are notorious for having late Spring starts so that is just horrible if that comes to fruition.  What a disappointing Winter and one where I thought was off to a great start in November then it took a drastic turn for the worst but they happen every so often but lately they've been happening way too often!

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