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Upstate/Eastern New York


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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Out this way?  Hovered in the low 30s  most of the day with some freezing drizzle. Once the rain moved in we bumped up to the mid 30s and now with the southerly down slope wind firing up we are climbing the temperature roller coaster to almost 60 in the next few hours.  All that to see it crash back into the 20s by sunrise with some flurries.  Gotta love upstate weather.  

How did the Niagara frontier fare in regards to ice?

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 337 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019 NYZ006-081645- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0006.190208T2000Z-190209T1800Z/ Oswego- Including the city of Oswego 337 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusts of 45 mph tonight will create blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.


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They don't even know, lol, how horrible?

With the advent of cold advection this morning, model soundings
are quickly shifting colder, and the unstable layer with
minimally sheared flow will allow for lake effect snow bands to
form underneath a more general large scale snow simply from a
more efficient ice crystal growth habit in the cold advection.
Light snow has developed over eastern Lake Erie and nearby
portions of Ontario, amd likewise some banding of snow is noted
in areas we are fairly certain that contain open water over the
lake (there are mostly just to the NW of Cleveland from the
GLERL analysis). However, we haven`t gotten a good look at the
lake yet to better ascertain where additional banding may form
from, so this update really just favors much higher PoPs for the
day for snow showers over WNY and around an inch of
accumulation. It does seem some banding is developing into the
Southtowns as of this writing, so if we can determine there is a
source for this in the lake, additional updates may be
necessary. There is very definite potential for an upside
surprise today in the Buffalo area, to be certain.
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Both 4 and 7 made adjustments for suspected areas of open water and wow! Showing a band over the northtowns around lunch time then intensifying and dropping through the metro for the PM rush... Near Blizzard conditions possible...

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Only thing is neither model picked up the current band over the southtowns. Both just showed one setting up over the northtowns around noon - 1pm. Might as well be forecasting this with a blind fold on. No one has any idea where these open pools are right now and if you don’t know that forget even trying to predict where these bands will be...


.

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