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I'm pretty confident we see a 20-30" event some time in Feb but it'll be a long drawn out event, as thats how they occur, usually following a nice Synoptic event that stalls over VT and NH and slowly heads ENE from there and takes 3 days to do so, so its safe to say I'm waiting for one of those to happen as we usually get 1/ yr avg.

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_NAO is nearing so that means blocking so we'll see what happens during the 2nd week of Feb through March as that's when I think we make up for a horrific January, wait December and January, lol, and if we didn't get that freak event in Nov we'd be in big big trouble right now around these parts.

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And I doubt the next intrusion of Arctic will be a reach around as I think we go back to normally getting AF's that come barreling through from the North or NW not SW,  especially in January but its quite common in November, thats why so many blockbusters happen in November and early Jan in and around KBUF.

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18 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

And I doubt the next intrusion of Arctic will be a reach around as I think we go back to normally getting AF's that come barreling through from the North or NW not SW,  especially in January but its quite common in November, thats why so many blockbusters happen in November and early Jan in and around KBUF.

You know the climate for Oswego county more than I do...hope you're right.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

North of town is getting obliterated. I’d love to see totals up there. Even in the lighter returns here I’m observing blizzard conditions with high wind gusts and visibility below 1/4 SM. Easily some of the most intense stuff I’ve seen yet.

If/when that band drops it’s going to be extraordinary. I think. 

Patience. It's going to take its time, but it'll be worth it. Might be best off to grab some sleep now while you can. 

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IDK. I hate to put salt, but I’m not seeing any signs of the band sinking into the southern TUG. Another scenario where Carol sees boat loads of snow while Redfield south just gets brushed (at best).. The ARW still shows huge accumulation in the south but let’s be honest, it’s been showing that over and over and has been consistently wrong. The Canadian and NMM have had better handles and don’t suffer from this ‘southern ‘ bias. 

I really can’t recall another time where the southern Tug has been so left out. 

Im starting to think the best way to forecast these plumes is to strictly observe the upstream orientations and discount modeled expectations. With the last two storms, it became apparent, by looking at placement of Erie bands, that the forecast was simply too far south. And by a solid 20-40 miles. 

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Thundersnow reported by Channel 9 Syracuse, around Adams Center, around 5:15am.  Barnes Corners must be getting walloped with 3-5" rates, I'd presume....

The band will settle a few more miles south, then shift north after 12-14z.....then slowly back south (a bit further into central Oswego Co. by late evening/ overnight.)...and then contract back to the lake by Friday morning.  I think 3+ feet, 5 miles either side of a line from Adams Center to Montague, is very likely. 

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21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The band is JUST to my north. Shoot...me...now.

Are you serious?  Where in God's name are you exactly so I know!  I thought you were right there where the tri-counties come together? Guess I was wrong, my bad as I thought you were in a completely diff location!

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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Are you serious?  Where in God's name are you exactly so I know!  I thought you were right there where the tri-counties come together? Guess I was wrong, my bad as I thought you were in a completely diff location!

I am in Southern Redfield, between Redfield and Osceola...right on the Lewis County line. Great for upsloping...and so far AWFUL for LES.

I can literally see the sun just off to my south, while I sir under a cloud bank with not one flake. If the band drifted less than a mile south I would be pound town city.

So painful.

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

I am in Southern Redfield, between Redfield and Osceola...right on the Lewis County line. Great for upsloping...and so far AWFUL for LES.

I can literally see the sun just off to my south, while I sir under a cloud bank with not one flake. If the band drifted less than a mile south I would be pound town city.

So painful.

Many times, when a band is moving (in this case it drifted south), the heaviest snows will be located on the edge, where the convergence zone is, opposite of motion with respect to the radar depiction.  (In this case, on the northern 1/3 of the radar returns) sometimes, you will see high reflectivities over your head (800-1200 feet) but the flakes at that level are being drawn into the convergence zone (in this case, just to your north!!)

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1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Many times, when a band is moving (in this case it drifted south), the heaviest snows will be located on the edge, where the convergence zone is, opposite of motion with respect to the radar depiction.  (In this case, on the northern 1/3 of the radar returns) sometimes, you will see high reflectivities over your head (800-1200 feet) but the flakes at that level are being drawn into the convergence zone (in this case, just to your north!!)

Thanks for the info.

Just started snowing lightly here, with some big flakes.

I am hoping that little jog south out by Pulaski continues here.

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