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Upstate/Eastern New York


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11 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

 

Map below, but for Erie:

KBUF: 20”

Dunkirk: 18”

Hamburg: 29”

Batavia: 16”

2019_LESMap_Updated.thumb.png.912e0c48fab7e0469778f91e665110d3.png

 

Feel free to ask any other thoughts. Since I’m in the icebox that is Iowa, I have a decent amount of free time over the next couple days.

 

I wonder what makes you think Syracuse  gets into the action? Is that more frontal and upslope? I just don’t see any NW component to this round. Despite having a huge H directly to our west (normally nw) but I guess the upper low to our N just dominates this flow. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Wow, this is fantastic, Thank You! Can you post your map for Erie? Also, what are your thoughts on the lake ice increasing on Erie during tomorrow and Thursday? Any possible thunder in the bands? 

I don't have a fancy template lying around for that area right now, but I can throw something together here in a minute.

There will certainly be some ice increase over the lake with such cold temperatures... which is why I'm a little nervous my forecast is too aggressive. There have been a few studies that show there's still significant latent/sensible heat fluxes with thin ice cover, so I think that there's going to be some lake-effect regardless of if ice cover increases. Satellite looks basically completely ice free near Sandusky/Toledo where the National Ice Center is analyzing ice cover. If I remember correctly, the NAM/3k NAM use that data for their lake ice information, which means your hi-res guidance isn't going to do particularly well in a situation like this. In fact, you can already see hints of it on the NAM overnight tonight, where the west half of Erie has the same temperature as the actual ground:

NAMNSTGL_sfc_temp_018.png

I remember an event off Ontario in 2014 where the models essentially thought the whole lake was frozen (hint: it wasn't fully covered) and spit out almost no QPF. That case didn't have nearly as good of a thermal profile as we have with this event. There are additional impacts that limited ice cover could cause, like if new fricitional convergence zones can set up that are harder to forecast. 

There's always a chance for thundersnow in these events, with such steep lapse rates and a fat CAPE profile it seems likely we get at least a few strikes over the next couple days. 

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5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Brockport Hamlin area have got a foot off Erie before. I have seen almost all of monroe get 6 inches before from Erie. Doesn't happen alot but it does in rare cases

Brockport can do ok.  Most of what you are talking about is more of a hybrid setup with an arctic front dropping through and intensifying the Erie band.  Straight lake effect does not directly impact Rochester with warning criteria, it just doesnt. , I don't know how else to convince you.  I mean you live in Wayne County, I live in the West Side of Monroe county...and have for the last 17 years.  Which person might have a better handle on how much snow Lake Erie drops here?  

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I wonder what makes you think Syracuse  gets into the action? Is that more frontal and upslope? I just don’t see any NW component to this round. Despite having a huge H directly to our west (normally nw) but I guess the upper low to our N just dominates this flow. 

More of a case of just broadbrushing the southern edge. Winds will eventually swing a bit more WNW/NW'erly for a brief period Thursday night/Friday morning before things fully shut off. You can kind of see the same thought in the BUF map. I probably should've adjusted Cuse out of the 4-8" but I still think they have potential at the end of the event. 

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11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Looks like winds are dropping a little. Have been 230 most of the morning now dropping off to 250. Band is looking incredible right now! Just catching some fringe bursts at the moment but it’s coming!

8888a9aabde99936e3408934951d6747.jpg


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Yea can confirm the 250 as its impacting Cheektowaga right now, we were missing out earlier with that 230 wind.

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Enjoy this event WNY folks. I'll be watching from the sidelines in the Ohio snowbelt. Those sw'erly bands are always impressive. The western basin is pretty much ice covered so LES in this area is about over barring any major warmth to melt the ice cover. The open areas referenced in the western basin are from the strong southwesterly winds pushing the ice offshore as it is still thin. The majority of the central basin is open for business. This should be a great one for you guys in the BUF area. 

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39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wow, this is fantastic, Thank You! Can you post your map for Erie? Also, what are your thoughts on the lake ice increasing on Erie during tomorrow and Thursday? Any possible thunder in the bands? 

Not patient enough to make it look as good as the Ontario one for now, but here's my best effort. Worth noting I don't forecast for Erie often so if my map looks weird that's why. Try to imagine that 24"+ contour is basically Hamburg and East Aurora. 

 

2019_LESMap_Erie.png

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

New NWS map. If this verifies this will be one of the premier lake effect events in BUF history. Widespread 2’+ totals. From northtowns to Southtowns and everywhere in between with -30 windchills and 45 mph winds this will be the ‘85 repeat we’ve all been waiting for!!!

E0DE295B-0A4C-45A5-A83D-50B8EFE33EF8.png

Blizz of 85 redux, map looks identical. 

image.png.44ab3dc4055ea75415521351e6249edc.png

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Tim, I'm not going to fight with you because l like where your heart is at.  But all three maps you posted have rather unimpressive amounts of 80 percent of the county.  If you want to focus on Rochester itself it looks like they got 3 inches, 6 inches and then 3 inches in the order of the maps you posted.  None of those warrant a warning.  I have fantasized about Rochester getting a solid hit from Erie for almost two decades.  It turns out its physically impossible.  

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