lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Channel 4s in house model which is usually pretty decent shows a very weak and unimpressive band of the band looks to be sheared apart and falling apart every few hours from tonight right through Thursday. I think people need to temper their expectations a bit cause there's no way anyone off Erie is seeing 2'+. Between the ice cover and the very strong winds that are gonna tear the band apart plus not to mention it's gonna be moving around a lot, I don't think anyone sees more than 18". I think most will be closer to a foot total. Still not gonna complain at all as another foot would put me over 50" in 2 weeks but I'm not as impressed with this event as I was a couple days ago. Still gonna be a very impactful storm though with 45mph winds and temperatures below zero with wind chills as low as -30 to -40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Response off lower lake Michigan look impressive already. Our local Mets are all over the place which is to be expected. I'm certain at some point Blizzard warning will be issued later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Channel 4s in house model which is usually pretty decent shows a very weak and unimpressive band of the band looks to be sheared apart and falling apart every few hours from tonight right through Thursday. I think people need to temper their expectations a bit cause there's no way anyone off Erie is seeing 2'+. Between the ice cover and the very strong winds that are gonna tear the band apart plus not to mention it's gonna be moving around a lot, I don't think anyone sees more than 18". I think most will be closer to a foot total. Still not gonna complain at all as another foot would put me over 50" in 2 weeks but I'm not as impressed with this event as I was a couple days ago. Still gonna be a very impactful storm though with 45mph winds and temperatures below zero with wind chills as low as -30 to -40. I'm not sure if you remember 85 but the winds were just as strong, if not stronger than what's being forecast and the band did not shear. As to WIVB models they were terrible during last Fridays event. There model never showed the band getting into the Northtowns at all yet that's where the greatest accums were. Every one of these models has a southern bias...proof? The NWS just issued a WWA for Niagara and Orleans counties which means their confidence has grown that the band will make it further north than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I'm not sure if you remember 85 but the winds were just as strong, if not stronger than what's being forecast and the band did not shear. As to WIVB models they were terrible during last Fridays event. There model never showed the band getting into the Northtowns at all yet that's where the greatest accums were. Every one of these models has a southern bias...proof? The NWS just issued a WWA for Niagara and Orleans counties which means their confidence has grown that the band will make it further north than expected. 85 was 9 years before I was born lol. I really hope your right TS. Just think there’s lots of factors going against this right now but maybe it can all be overcome and we have our ‘85 repeat 34 years later! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, WesterlyWx said: 85 was 9 years before I was born lol. I really hope your right TS. Just think there’s lots of factors going against this right now but maybe it can all be overcome and we have our ‘85 repeat 34 years later! Lol I was 11 at that time and I'll never forget how that was such a widespread event from the Northtowns to the southtowns. Clarence, South buffalo, Alden, Amherst, Buffalo, Hamburg all did well. It was equal opportunity LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 newest map from buf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: newest map from buf That little dark red blip south of KBUF is right over my head lmao. My P&C forecast has 16-28” from today through Thursday evening. We shall see, but I’ll take the under on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: That little dark red blip south of KBUF is right over my head lmao. My P&C forecast has 16-28” from today through Thursday evening. We shall see, but I’ll take the under on that. That's where my old apt was during the nov 2014 storm. It's a really long duration event, I could see it. Specific totals are always pretty difficult. The band just be in the vicinity of the BUF from this afternoon to Wed afternoon. Most intense to me should be Wednesday morning into early afternoon when an approaching 700mb shortwave provides extra lift and moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Those NWS maps are a complete joke! RGEM looks the most reasonable, yeah its not the blockbuster totals, actually their quite paltry compared to some of the other meso's so...... None of the globals see much in the way of LE off of either lake so that's weird to me as even the Euro is low with QPF and it pegged the last event over KWRT so we'll see and I hope you guys out west are right but I'm with Westerly that no one sees over 15" out of this. But I hope everyone gets crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Some meso projections for the BUF area. Nice signal, but the typical pre-event disagreements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 i think the Rgem totals are way to low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just looking over the guidance this morning and the 3k NAM (as shown above) is pretty impressive. As for conditions, it looks like we’re in a bit of a lull for now. Man you are going to love this event!!! Hope you get to Jebwalk in 3"/hour rates! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Eastern end of lake Erie is looking impressive already...im thinking this really gets cranking around 11 or so and unfortunately the drive home is not going to be easy at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Snowing heavily here, big flakes accumulating quickly. Was it supposed to start this early? I was expecting a lull until later this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Moderate snow already in Williamsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 Band looks fantastic, looks to be setting up on a SSW flow for the next few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Checked the radar thinking this might just be a passing squall line, but sure looks like it's coming up the length of the lake. Looks like BUF wasn't expecting much to get going until late morning, and only up to 4 inches during the day: Additional snowfall will also occur northeast of Lake Erie as lake effect snow begins to develop late this morning as cold air advection begins after the cold front moves through. Northeast of Lake Erie can expect up to around 4 inches of snow through the early evening, primarily from lake effect, but also includes some earlier snowfall with the frontal passage. Light to moderate accumulating snowfall is likely to be ongoing for the Buffalo Metro area during the evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Yeah this event wasn’t supposed to get cranking until 5-6pm. The fact that radar looks like this, this early is very surprising and impressive. Maybe the lake has enough in her for a proper send off for the season. Wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Yeah this event wasn’t supposed to get cranking until 5-6pm. The fact that radar looks like this, this early is very surprising and impressive. Maybe the lake has enough in her for a proper send off for the season. Wow! Hoping KBUF gets 3', we need a new event in the top 10 24 hour snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Impressive probabilities for 18"+ The expected snowfall only goes till 7 pm Thursday, I still have 100% chance of snow Thursday night and 80% Friday.. NWS still calling for 7"-13" today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Hoping KBUF gets 3', we need a new event in the top 10 24 hour snowfall. Not to mention that would push us into the top spot for the snowiest January on record! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Well hopefully all the naysayers aren’t disappointed when this event over achieves! Complete whiteout right now at work on the East Side. As long as I can make it out of here tonight I got off tomorrow to enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Well hopefully all the naysayers aren’t disappointed when this event over achieves! Complete whiteout right now at work on the East Side. As long as I can make it out of here tonight I got off tomorrow to enjoy! I do see some of the shearing that Cejka was talking about here in Williamsville as it does go from heavy snow to light snow with holes in the clouds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Well hopefully all the naysayers aren’t disappointed when this event over achieves! Complete whiteout right now at work on the East Side. As long as I can make it out of here tonight I got off tomorrow to enjoy! Kuchera FTW! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Heavy snow with very limited visibility at UB North. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: Kuchera FTW! lol It does kinda work for lake effect. I think that ratios should be generally in the 15-20:1 range. There should be some dendrites mixed today through this evening given VVs punching into the -18c layer closer to the ground. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: It does kinda work for lake effect. I think that ratios should be generally in the 15-20:1 range. There should be some dendrites mixed today through this evening given VVs punching into the -18c layer closer to the ground. It's going to be unusually cold, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get 20:1 later on. But definitely not that 28:1 stuff that the Kuchura spits out. I don't think I've ever seen that verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, WNash said: It's going to be unusually cold, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get 20:1 later on. But definitely not that 28:1 stuff that the Kuchura spits out. I don't think I've ever seen that verify. The fluff that me and BuffaloWeather chased in North Collins and Boston the other night had to be 30:1 or even 40:1. I don’t think I’ve ever seen fluff like that. You could literally sneeze and clear off your entire car haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 This is not today's radar I repeat not today's radar haha Weather US now had Radar archives that go right into the counties.. Need a subscription to animate it but I'm cheap lol https://weather.us/radar-us/oswego/reflectivity-composite/KTYX_20070205-015000z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The radar over western Lake Erie out of Cleveland looks fantastic. Bands are rapidly blossoming indicative of at least a good amount of open water. This one has the feeling of a double whopper with cheese ala 85, Nov 2000, Dec 2010, Jan 14. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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