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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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41 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Southern VA is part of the SE forum for that very reason.  And I like keeping Philly separate (mainly because the city just plain sucks). ;) 

Well you never lived there then.  I lived there for 22 years and it's a fantastic city.  Rejuvenated center city, best restaurant scene on the east coast, very walkable, historic...just awesome really.  And more affordable than DC NYC and BOS.  Also, received 31" in Blizz of 96...so I think that is the highest single storm total in the Megalopolis.  Philly is a winner  ;)

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Good look at the Pineapple Connection coming out of the Pacific and thru Baja into the Southern US on the 0z GFS as the pattern begins to develop moving thru early next week. Think 'moisture feed'. 

gfs_ir_us_22.png

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That’s some serious cad...850 line down to the VA/NC boarder at 159.  Big hit south/central va

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is looking supressed..but at this range..I'll take that vs cutter any day.

Setting up larger system a day later? Not sure end result will be suppressed. HP is epic spot and strength.

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Ha doesnt want to transfer to the coast. Seems bogus given the stronger HP and upper ridging out ahead of the primary. Certainly possible tho not likely imo. Decent signal there for strong CAD more than last run. 

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ha doesnt want to transfer to the coast. Seems bogus given the stronger HP and upper ridging out ahead of the primary. Certainly possible tho not likely imo. Decent signal there for strong CAD more than last run. 

It got pretty lost there on where to focus energy. Split some off and let a primary go to Cleveland then transfer off VA.  Crazy run

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Everyone gets snow except DC on this run.  Pretty weird.  Still shows a storm though.  

Typical for a miller B. Eventually makes the transfer but too late for us. 

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Huh...How accurate do you think the strength/placement of the HP can be modeled from this range? (As opposed to trying to model the lows, lol) I'd imagine if the HP is anywhere near that strength, rain would definitely not be a concern, lol

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5 minutes ago, Negnao said:

 

 

30315862-2BB2-4A5B-9736-2C22745C4CC5.jpeg

Still have more to go with this look

3931B833-44D0-4128-9E24-21C1991F4EFC.gif

 

Edit: it’s moves north of us but a good run nonetheless 

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At this point the thought process should probably be: Is there a storm? Is there a CAD signal? Is there a high pressure to hold the CAD?  Beyond that it’s a fruitless and pointless exercise to look at precip/snow totals.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

At this point the thought process should probably be: Is there a storm? Is there a CAD signal? Is there a high pressure to hold the CAD?  Beyond that it’s a fruitless and pointless exercise to look at precip/snow totals.

You’re right of course but us weenies can’t help but look for the pretty colors.  

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00z EURO is basically an i66 and north hit... 4 to 8 inches.  Super extreme cutoff on southern side though as seen on the snowfall map below

ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_31.thumb.png.4abf20ca9573d08c092a1e4a942536ae.png

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00z EURO is basically an i66 and north hit... 4 to 8 inches.  Super extreme cutoff on southern side though as seen on the snowfall map below
ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_31.thumb.png.4abf20ca9573d08c092a1e4a942536ae.png
Not a good run....terrible trend. Hopefully a blip

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For those that are curious we saw a 1/4 to an 1/2 inch increase on the EPS snowfall means for the day 6/7 storm through the general DC/Balt corridor and north (DC 1", Balt 1 1/2", PA line 2"). Looking over the individual members the snow distribution suggests this snow is derived from gradient/over running snows with very little indication of snows from a coastal. So naturally the snow favors those to the north. At this point the majority of the members as well as the means suggest that any appreciable snow (1+") would probably favor DC and north. There are only two decent hits in the mix for the cities (6+"). As far as the whole 15 days we see a roughly 1/2" increase region wide (DC 3", Balt 3 1/2", Pa line 4 1/2").

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After looking over the over night runs all I can say is don't get too invested in any one solution for at least the next day or two. There are many things in play at this point and the models are in disagreement with each other on some of the key features as well as in disagreement with themselves quite often from run to run. About the only thing we know at this point is that there is a high probability of a storm running somewhere to our west and that the models also see a weakness generally around OBX or slightly north where a secondary will probably begin to develop. Now how that all plays out at this point is anyone's guess. So for now all options are still on the table IMO, from anywhere to a minor overrunning snow and quick flip to rain, to a hammering from over running, to over running morphing into a coastal.

 

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06Z GFS is out and it has a nice overrunning event for DC/Balt. We see warning criteria snow for the cities N and W.

And to prove my point from the above post we are seeing the primary running 200-300 miles farther to the west vs. the 00Z with also a slower solution on the developing coastal. We are also seeing some significant changes at 500's once again, which I think will have the ultimate say on how this all evolves. So until the models can get a handle on the 500's we are going to see a lot of waffling by the models.

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Just a quick mention but a few days ago I was talking about a window I thought the models may be hinting at for the possibility of a coastal. That window is still there and I think that the models are still seeing that possibility. So keep an eye out for shortly after our day 6/7 storm departs.

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25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

06Z GFS is out and it has a nice overrunning event for DC/Balt. We see warning criteria snow for the cities N and W.

And to prove my point from the above post we are seeing the primary running 200-300 miles farther to the west vs. the 00Z with also a slower solution on the developing coastal. We are also seeing some significant changes at 500's once again, which I think will have the ultimate say on how this all evolves. So until the models can get a handle on the 500's we are going to see a lot of waffling by the models.

It's going to take just what you said as models have a lot of pieces to get right at H5 with an ultimate translation to the surface. Pressure differences in the various low and high pressures will make all the difference since this setup will be highly contingent on the 850mb wind field with south to southwesterly LLJ, 700mb moisture transport and the low level cold air regime on the front side of the surface ridge to the north. This is pretty standard for these types of events, and could be until this weekend when the full picture comes into light. Best course of action is to use ensemble guidance and monitor the differences in the upper levels on the OP's. More than likely, well see multiple different end results over the coming days, so best not to get too caught up in each individual run.......unless you're Ji :)

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this is a huge problem...we cant have this be a wednesday storm. It needs to be snowing Tuesday at 12z. fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is a huge problem...we cant have this be a wednesday storm. It needs to be snowing Tuesday at 12z. fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

JI, only you would have a problem with this outcome. You are most definitely an enigma. 

eps00zday8.gif.af0e35c4f602c83518127f668e26df5b.gif

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