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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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Ensembles are definitely increasing winter wx activity from the 7th onwards. Skeptical of the 7th as it's pretty early and on the heels of 50s and maybe 60s. However, you can't not like seeing this many members picking up on threats as we move through the second week of the month. Some pretty good sized storms and plenty of members with multiple events. It's pretty uncommon for the eps to show this level of activity d10-15. If the h5 pattern sete up as advertised we're going to see a lot of big storms pop up in fantasyland on the ops. 18z Fv3 runs may become common.

vZtI2DX.png

 

d5C3r8K.png

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28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ensembles are definitely increasing winter wx activity from the 7th onwards. Skeptical of the 7th as it's pretty early and on the heels of 50s and maybe 60s. However, you can't not like seeing this many members picking up on threats as we move through the second week of the month. Some pretty good sized storms and plenty of members with multiple events. It's pretty uncommon for the eps to show this level of activity d10-15. If the h5 pattern sete up as advertised we're going to see a lot of big storms pop up in fantasyland on the ops. 18z Fv3 runs may become common.

vZtI2DX.png

 

d5C3r8K.png

Can we truly believe the potential this time around?

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ensembles are definitely increasing winter wx activity from the 7th onwards. Skeptical of the 7th as it's pretty early and on the heels of 50s and maybe 60s. However, you can't not like seeing this many members picking up on threats as we move through the second week of the month. Some pretty good sized storms and plenty of members with multiple events. It's pretty uncommon for the eps to show this level of activity d10-15. If the h5 pattern sete up as advertised we're going to see a lot of big storms pop up in fantasyland on the ops. 18z Fv3 runs may become common.

vZtI2DX.png

 

d5C3r8K.png

Classic torch a week before bomb pattern

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You gonna bet on that? Lol

No but he’s clearly using his knowledge of the weather, particularly long range patterns, to make that assessment. Many respected Mets agree. Around 2/9 give or take a few days, may kick off the best sustained winter pattern we’ve seen since 2010-2011 around these parts. As bob said, will it produce for us? TBD. No guarantee any pattern delivers.... but I’d be shocked if we don’t see at least one or two more significant snowfalls in February. The wildcard is the SE ridge. Will it be kept at bay by a -NAO -EPO +PNA regime? Time will tell. 

One thing is for sure... it’s going to be very fun tracking the  ~2/9-2/28 timeframe. Let’s hope at least one of those chances come to pass. 

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3 hours ago, Ji said:

At least war is gone 850944ef49da58b6ea8df494a074cc75.jpg

I’m curious if the mjo trended worse, we will see when it updates, because that looks like a phase 6/7 fighting against the pattern. Everything has good blocking now and that amount of NAO should force the trough into the east more but the se ridge is fighting like hell on all guidance overnight. That could work if we get lucky with the waves on the boundary and timing with highs.  Would rather see that ridge get squashed though. 

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58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m curious if the mjo trended worse, we will see when it updates, because that looks like a phase 6/7 fighting against the pattern. Everything has good blocking now and that amount of NAO should force the trough into the east more but the se ridge is fighting like hell on all guidance overnight. That could work if we get lucky with the waves on the boundary and timing with highs.  Would rather see that ridge get squashed though. 

0z run has the best NA look I have seen on the EPS in a while. Strong Baffin block with lower heights near the Maritimes right where we want it. Still work to do on the PAC side, and maybe it is MJO related and guidance will adjust over the next several runs. Would be a shame to get such a great look in the NA and have it mitigated by a problematic Pacific.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z run has the best NA look I have seen on the EPS in a while. Strong Baffin block with lower heights near the Maritimes right where we want it. Still work to do on the PAC side, and maybe it is MJO related and guidance will adjust over the next several runs. Would be a shame to get such a great look in the NA and have it mitigated by a problematic Pacific.

Looks not as good to me.  The Pac will never cooperate. Not sure why HM would even use KU potential.   

 

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9 minutes ago, frd said:

Looks not as good to me.  The Pac will never cooperate. Not sure why HM would even use KU potential.   

 

He said that after looking at the 12z GEFS I think. It was a sweet look. Last couple runs are still okay, but not as good in the EPAC, and we see a bit of a SE ridge. As far as the Pacific never cooperating, I don't know about that. It's certainly possible it will continue to be an issue with the pattern overall. Time will tell.

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z run has the best NA look I have seen on the EPS in a while. Strong Baffin block with lower heights near the Maritimes right where we want it. Still work to do on the PAC side, and maybe it is MJO related and guidance will adjust over the next several runs. Would be a shame to get such a great look in the NA and have it mitigated by a problematic Pacific.

My guess is members that don’t have as much NAO blocking have a monster eastern ridge that’s skewing the mean. If the blocking is real I bet that se ridge is muted more. 

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My guess is members that don’t have as much NAO blocking have a monster eastern ridge that’s skewing the mean. If the blocking is real I bet that se ridge is muted more. 

Yeah I was just looking at the EPS temp anomalies which are a pretty good indicator. Fair amount of spread. Some members look pretty cold and others range from mild to a downright torchy look for the east.

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My guess is members that don’t have as much NAO blocking have a monster eastern ridge that’s skewing the mean. If the blocking is real I bet that se ridge is muted more. 

Meanwhile the GFS is trip'in .....  the SE with feet of snow.  Sure 

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