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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

lol. I can't buy in to the FV3 amounts, yet but maybe 6-10 sort of like the EURO showed especially if the qpf keeps increasing. 

It’s all about that hp and the CAD.  That high slides and poof.  Frankly between the SE ridge and the west track I don’t know what the heck is going on..but as the late Bob Chill said we can snow in phase 5 and rain in phase 1.  I miss him already. 

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

EPS, at least at 12z, still way too far northwest for a coastal transfer. Need to see that improve a bit. The good news is the low is weak, so shift it southeast and it should want to transfer with a pretty strong high to the north.

I see 2 general camps for the primary among the members. The W. TN camp with a transfer to NC coast would work just fine.

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23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looking ahead towards the beginning of March, this wouldn't be too bad a look..

march.thumb.png.937b49c4217eb7b7fbcc32fd2bc77ed2.png

Best part is it starts the progression to that around day 10. Not way out at day 15. By day 11 it’s alresdy getting good and that result is pretty inevitable (is day 10/11 is right) 

FAE20232-CDCD-4242-9653-C2B21ABB5A88.thumb.png.18e150de5852195614c3dfeb3e091d12.png

0E2FE3EF-F609-4E97-8751-6D95C68A713E.thumb.png.a12af0c11a83c7362588fafbcfc993c5.png

Need the eps to get on board. But the gefs is finally progressing the look in time. Eps took a move towards that day 8-10 then regresses. It’s been bad all winter day 11-15 though so maybe it’s gonna lose this one. 

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Regarding the nino. They don’t declare until there are 3 months running of nino conditions. But the nino is fading and will likely be back to neutral oni soon. The declaration is mostly retrospective if anything. It’s not useful for predictive purposes. We had a >.5 oni for a while now. The oni is on the way back down now. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Best part is it starts the progression to that around day 10. Not way out at day 15. By day 11 it’s alresdy getting good and that result is pretty inevitable (is day 10/11 is right) 

FAE20232-CDCD-4242-9653-C2B21ABB5A88.thumb.png.18e150de5852195614c3dfeb3e091d12.png

0E2FE3EF-F609-4E97-8751-6D95C68A713E.thumb.png.a12af0c11a83c7362588fafbcfc993c5.png

Need the eps to get on board. But the gefs is finally progressing the look in time. Eps took a move towards that day 8-10 then regresses. It’s been bad all winter day 11-15 though so maybe it’s gonna lose this one. 

Yeah I wasn't nuts about EPS D12 to 15. Looks like it wants to retro again and pull the trough back to the west some. Subtle though and it could be noise. Need another run or 2 to see where its headed.

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52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Regarding the nino. They don’t declare until there are 3 months running of nino conditions. But the nino is fading and will likely be back to neutral oni soon. The declaration is mostly retrospective if anything. It’s not useful for predictive purposes. We had a >.5 oni for a while now. The oni is on the way back down now. 

recancel the uncanceled nino

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps mean high temp for Wednesday for Carroll county made a pretty decent jump down ..barely above freezing....combined with many members showing qpf near 2 inches . Could be a heck of a winter storm. It wouldn't shock me with that kind of qpf potential if some future op runs show a 12"+ snow thump for many . ....regardless.. fun tracking weekend ahead .

 

Screenshot_20190215-215453_Samsung capture_crop_540x633.jpg

You’ll do ok.  Good tracking for your county.  I think it will be a colder version of early this week.  I will be curious to see what the 0z runs say and if they hold or get colder.  I like to be inside the 540 line for comfort. 

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