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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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Just now, frd said:

The flow in the NW Atlantic, the boundary and the indices at that time dictate that might be a big one. 

I can see how this could evolve....Either a more consolidated system or maybe another long duration event.  I mean look at this weekend.  Even if we fail Sat/Sun the changes over the past 48 hours at h5 are nothing short of dramatic.

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34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

MJO has become the scapegoat of all scapegoats.

And it's not like the forecast hasnt been calling for 8 and maybe one for the past 2 weeks. If you believe it is an MJO driven winter than you couldnt cancel winter over the past weeks.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

We will.  No way we get a triple shot with no problems.   It's fun to look at tho.     I think we score with one though.

That's the biggest takeaway. Unless these are all phantoms (doubt the first one is), we should have at least one break our way. 3 for 3 would cause massive disrobing but that's not how we roll around here. I'll forecast shirtless for now with maybe a side order of candy apple red speedos. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

We will.  No way we get a triple shot with no problems.   It's fun to look at tho.     I think we score with one though.

Just one? Well, if we had to choose 1/3 then I'd much rather it be the big one, then! I'd totally sacrifice the other two for that one if need be...lol I'm gonna lean on 1899/1979 history and go for the big kahuna...(not ignoring the first two, but...ya know)

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I wager we get a -NAO and A MECS late in Feb or early March . 

If we get the -NAO maybe early March is a better bet. 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

@Bob Chill...Yeah, the 2nd low on Sunday is weaker and as you say we have CAD in place behind the previous system (closely spaced).  Also, check the 10m winds, they are easterly to slightly north of east as that low treks by, and then reforms off the coast.  They never go southeast or southerly.  And they are pretty light.

In simplest terms i think the tight spacing doesnt allow enough time to wreck the mid levels.  No room to wind up.  

and another following on its heels.  Man, lotsa action coming at us.

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Guys guys...serious question...what could go wrong to prevent us from getting snow?

alot..its warm friday so we are trying to time a a storm with cold air moving in. And then next week could be a 90% ice storm instead of snow

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2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

Until the green moves in

I’d have doubled my seasonal snowfall to date by that point so it’s cool 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

alot..its warm friday so we are trying to time a a storm with cold air moving in. And then next week could be a 90% ice storm instead of snow

Saturday-Sunday double whammy thing is a recipe for jackpotville revenge on losing to DCA earlier.

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Some of these systems are going to leave some in the forum disappointed. No doubt we ride the taint line on some of the upcoming stuff, but looks like a fun period ahead starting Saturday.

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

The weenie run may not be over....Too far out to take serious but D10 may be #4

 

Roaring STJ at peak climo FTMFW

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27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, how is that snow at 120 with that low position

 

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah that was my question...ICON did the same thing, lol

Primary is weak, not creating a strong southerly flow. Secondary already developing independent circulation cutting off the primary from deep flow that can wreck mids. 

Its a tenuous track for sure but “sometimes” that progression can work, but your walking a tightrope for sure that way. 

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13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Guys guys...serious question...what could go wrong to prevent us from getting snow?

Our addresses and latitude/longitude etc

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OK! Dangit! I am across the ocean last week of Feb and back March 1! Can we get crushed next week and hold on for the HECS for March 2nd? IN general though.. what a trend! And if I gotta miss some snow after next week, I could live if all that comes true! Wow! Saturday is on a north progression though.. that could be a bad trend.

 

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6 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

WOW the GFS FV3 is a monster hit......how much can we hug it?

Yep.  Looks like a nice thump before the 0 line passes through.  

Edit:  Thought you were talking about Tuesday.  This Sat looks like a clean hit of .5-.75 QPF.  

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